With any meal you cook at mass quantity, there are going to be some really delicious corners of the serving tray and some hard bits of pasta that were completely untouched by boiling water. So went my first foray into 100 predictions 100 days out from the regular season, which debuted in May 2022. I correctly predicted that an Andrew Luck unretirement rumor would leak (there were two), and also projected the Panthers, Texans and Bears would be in contention for the No. 1 pick, that Tom Brady would throw fewer than 35 touchdown passes, the wide receiver market would crash and that the Browns would be kind of disappointing.
I also predicted that the Packers would make the Super Bowl, but again, mass quantities. You understand, right? Let’s follow the light and focus on the positive.
This year, I’m back with 100 more predictions focused on love, lust, trades, busts, triumphs and which kicker will lead the NFL in touchback percentage. It’s all here. Thanks for giving it a chance and not just looking for the hard bits of pasta.
Sam Greene/USA TODAY Sports (Burrow); Michael Chow/The Republic/USA Today Network (Hopkins); Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports (Richardson); Eric Espada/Getty Images (Ridley)
1. The Bengals will defeat the 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII
I realize, as one of the supreme mushes of our time, that I have an ability to make it a near certainty these teams will not reach the Super Bowl. So it was my initial plan just to put two teams I absolutely wouldn’t want to see there (say, oh, I don’t know, two random teams like the Browns and the Commanders) as my Super Bowl contenders. Alas, that wouldn’t make for a very good prediction post, and, at some point, every blind squirrel finds an acorn. The Bengals and the 49ers have, by my estimation, the two rosters that best embody the hallmark of a Super Bowl team: talent and depth at almost every position. The 49ers have enough options at the quarterback position to make sure they aren’t stuck in the title game with Christian McCaffrey in the Wildcat. Deebo Samuel believed this team was better than the Eagles last year, and, even after Philadelphia’s superb draft, I agree that the 49ers have just as strong of a roster.
2. Mark Andrews will be the Ravens’ leading receiver
Still. This isn’t a criticism; it’s just an observation. Andrews is really good. He’s not just one of the best tight ends in the NFL, but one of the best receivers in the NFL. While I think we all hope Odell Beckham Jr. flashes glimpses of his former self this season in Baltimore, and both Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman find their respective lanes, Lamar Jackson still needs to improvise. When he does, there is one person who best understands where to be.
3. The Patriots will win the AFC East
Bill O’Brien is back and carrying a new bag of tricks from his Alabama getaway. This offense can sensibly grind out games behind a brilliant defense. You’ll ask: But what about the Dolphins, Jets and Bills? My thought is that this division may end up collapsing in on itself a little bit. There are a lot of heavyweight punchers here, each of which have some very talented but fatal flaws. The Dolphins, for example, are going to have a tough time not burning themselves out. The Bills are dependent on reinventing themselves around an intentionally less mobile Josh Allen. The Jets’ title hopes rest on the shoulders of Aaron Rodgers, who may be great and newly motivated. He is also flirting with age 40 and may be starting to show it.
4. The Packers will win 10 games
This isn’t an Aaron Rodgers take. This is a Matt LaFleur, Jordan Love and Brian Gutekunst take. I think it’s very possible that, in the weak-kneed NFC North, we’ll have a pair of teams with double-digit wins. In this case, the Packers and the Lions. One reason? The Packers’ schedule is not a gantlet by any stretch of the imagination. Green Bay is 24th in opponent strength of schedule and plays only one team coming off a bye. The Packers have three short weeks, which is a lot, but is less punishing when your quarterback is under 25.
5. Anthony Richardson will win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but …
Bryce Young will lead all rookie passers in quarterback rating. If Richardson, who plays a more all-encompassing style of football than Young, plays an entire season, there is no way he won’t amass a more glamorous statistical profile than Young, who is more of a traditional pocket passer. That said, much like when Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck entered the league in 2012, we may come away with an initial preference toward one quarterback while also recognizing the long-term value of another.
6. There will be nine head coaching vacancies at the end of the season
The candidates we’ll all be obsessing over by November will include Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who I believe will be the most sought-after candidate of the cycle. Also in the mix will be Panthers DC Ejiro Evero, Dolphins OC Frank Smith, Raiders DC Patrick Graham, Panthers QBs coach Josh McCown and OC Thomas Brown, Bengals OC Brian Callahan, and Giants OC Mike Kafka and DC Don Martindale.
7. Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson will be the highest-graded rookie cornerback
A sixth-round pick, you say? If the Rams DB were a few inches taller, there’s a good chance he would have been the first cornerback off the board. While I understand cornerback and quarterback are different and we may never come to the same conclusion that size doesn’t matter for defensive-matchup purposes, Hodges-Tomlinson is going to dazzle the Pro Football Focus crowd.
8. Kenny Pickett will finish as a top-12 quarterback in terms of EPA+CPOE composite
First off, what’s that? The metric, which is charted here, measures how much value a quarterback adds to a play over what’s expected and also how many passes a quarterback completes over what was expected. It’s usually a pretty fair gauge of talent and value, with a few outliers. I’m buying big on Pickett in his second season, and I think you should, too.
9. Deshaun Watson will finish the season with a career high in rushing yards and touchdowns
While I have not yet done my total-season record predictions, I, like the rest of you, imagine the Browns will be pretty good. The team is solid through the trenches and has a quarterback who you win because of, not with. I think that Watson will undoubtedly feel the pressure of his contract and, while he’s still getting up to speed at the NFL level, will use his athleticism to make plays while his arm catches up. Call it a way to avoid pressing, but 551 yards and seven touchdowns over the course of a 17-game season are not huge barriers to break.
10. The Colts’ Shane Steichen will win the Coach of the Year award
It’s easier to be considered for this award when you’re starting from a bad place. The Colts were one of the worst teams in the NFL last season and endured the optical hit of a Week 10 change to Jeff Saturday on the sidelines. During Saturday’s tenure, the Colts lost seven straight games and surrendered the biggest comeback loss in NFL history. This is a quick way of saying that the pump is primed for a turnaround.
11. Rhamondre Stevenson will lead the NFL in rushing
The Patriots’ tailback is an unquestioned No. 1, with Ty Montgomery looking like he’ll assume the third-down responsibilities. Stevenson was 12th among running backs last year and roughly 600 yards off the pace set by Josh Jacobs, but he was in a fundamentally broken system with a more definitive platoon of backs.
John W. McDonough/Sports Illustrated
12. Christian McCaffrey will become the first back since 2006 to surpass 20 rushing touchdowns
We had a handful of 20-touchdown seasons in the early 2000s, with LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander and Priest Holmes (twice) all striking fantasy football gold. McCaffrey will end up securing Kyle Shanahan’s trust in what amounts to a preference for security. Shanahan would rather Trey Lance be handing the ball off when points are on the line, if Lance has to take significant snaps. Or, if it’s Brock Purdy (more on that later), the coach would prefer to minimize the number of throws he has to make.
13. Tyler Allgeier will outrush Bijan Robinson
I think this will sound more controversial than I mean it to be. Robinson is going to be everywhere in the Falcons’ offense—he’d better be after they drafted him No. 8. He’ll outpace Allgeier in terms of overall value and be heavily involved in the passing game. However, the second-year back who topped 1,000 yards in his own rookie campaign didn’t just all of a sudden become less valuable inside the red zone or as a straight-up muscle back when Atlanta needs tough yards.
14. 49ers safety Talanoa Hufanga will lead the NFL in interceptions
Hufanga was only two off the pace last season, finishing the year with four. My guess is that a few quarterbacks will think twice about testing Tariq Woolen after his exceptional rookie debut, meaning fewer picks for the second-year Seahawks standout. Patrick Peterson and Minkah Fitzpatrick will be in the same Steelers secondary in 2023, which means fewer pickable balls to go around.
15. Tristan Vizcaino will lead NFL kickers in touchback percentage
Congratulations, Tristan!
16. Keisean Nixon will tie for third in NFL history with three kickoff-return touchdowns in one season
Pairing Nixton with special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia for another season will pay dividends for the Packers. Who needs Aaron Rodgers when you can just return all your kicks for scores?
17. Bryce Young will break the NFL record for …
Most consecutive completions by a rookie quarterback in the modern era. Mac Jones currently holds the record, which stands at 19. The Panthers will design a lot of easy completions for Young to get him into the flow of games. One week, he’s just not going to stop.
18. A former NFL player will announce a bid for a high-profile political seat
Despite a high-profile former running back having recently lost a Senate bid, it won’t deter both parties from reaching deep into their hands to find the next infallible superstar candidate who can bring voters to the polls. Some NFL players I wish would run: Malcolm Jenkins, Nick Mangold, Rob Gronkowski and Adam Vinatieri.
19. The single-game record for most times getting sacked (12) will be broken
Right now, the record is shared by Bert Jones, Warren Moon and Donovan McNabb. One of the non–Bryce Young rookie quarterbacks will carry that dubious distinction heading into the 2024 season. Anthony Richardson, Will Levis or C.J. Stroud … look out. You’re in for at least one very painful afternoon this season.
Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports
20. Carl Cheffers will release a Grammy Award–winning album reflective of Americana
The 62-year-old referee has been in the league since 2000 and, during his long stretches on the road, from one hotel room to the next, he has meditated deeply on the profundity of life and the meaning of overcoming adversity, both mental and physical. Cheffers’s bare, acoustic-forward album will be likened to that of the late singer-songwriter legend John Prine.
21. Baker Mayfield will throw for 16 touchdowns
The Buccaneers’ quarterback, who is helping to buoy the franchise during its post–Tom Brady half-tank, will have a solid campaign, certainly enough to vault him into a perpetual roster spot for however long he pleases. Will he be the Geno Smith surprise of the year? Probably not. But he will outplay the circumstances, as he has done fairly consistently throughout his career.
22. An NFL team will call Antonio Brown this season
Brown, who is currently running an arena league football team into the ground, will field at least one semiserious phone call from an NFL team this year inquiring about his ability to play. Brown will obviously record the call and post it on social media.
23. Matthew Stafford will be dealt to another team coached by a Sean McVay disciple
I think Stafford and McVay will someday end up somewhere on a sideline coaching together. The mutual respect they have is evident. So much so that I can’t imagine McVay wanting to keep Stafford on the roster if the team isn’t going to be competitive in the very near future. Just about every team has a McVay guy on staff and, thus, a not-so-difficult process of ferrying Stafford across the country to a title contender. Perhaps the Vikings will sustain an injury at the quarterback position or are starting to get serious about life after Kirk Cousins. Just an example.
24. Kliff Kingsbury will somehow factor majorly into the 2023 season and, more importantly, the ’24 draft
Kingsbury burned himself out working in the substandard conditions offered by the reeling Cardinals. As we know from a few select moribund franchises across the NFL, not much changes if the owner remains the same. Kingsbury is now working at USC with Caleb Williams, who could very well end up the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft. The Cardinals are also going to be quite bad, perhaps in line with said No. 1 pick. Perhaps as a bit of friendly advice, he’ll let Williams know there might be better places for him to spend his career. Juicy, right?
25. Kyler Murray will play fewer than seven games this season, and it will be his last year in Arizona
Financially, moving Murray anywhere is incredibly prohibitive, but one wonders whether the team and player can work out a deal that gets him back on the market for a potentially booming offseason at the position. Murray is not going to rush back from a torn ACL. The Cardinals are going to start a slew of backups under a first-time defensive-minded coach, in Jonathan Gannon. The outcome of that early part of the season could ultimately sway Murray as to when he’d actually come back. And if we follow that line of logic all the way through to a potentially generational pair of talents at the top of the 2024 draft, we’re going to have a conversation on our hands.
26. Justin Fields will have more than 40 total touchdowns
I don’t think this is a brave prediction by any stretch, even if Fields scored only 25 total touchdowns last year (17 passing and eight rushing) in 15 games. The Bears got better everywhere offensively, and, at the very minimum, it’s going to further stress a defense that still has to account for Fields leaving the pocket. Luke Getsy, who will get a head coaching job after this year, gets to keep a supported Fields with a year of the scheme under his belt.
27. The Eagles will not win the NFC East
This is based on nothing other than my internal sense that whenever everyone thinks the Eagles will be really good, they turn out to be just O.K. Whenever the Eagles are supposed to be just O.K., they end up being really good. Call it deep scarring from the Dream Team summer of Vince Young and Nnamdi Asomugha (who was amazing in The Good Nurse, by the way). And don’t forget this division hasn’t had a repeat winner since these Eagles way back in 2004.
28. Tony Romo will have a renaissance campaign in the booth
I personally think the overflow of Romo criticism is ridiculous. I think we’ll realize that this year. While this is a hard prediction to quantify, I will leave the final verdict on this to esteemed colleague Jimmy Traina, who is on the Mount Rushmore of the sports media beat. However, Romo will not be the true breakout star of the 2023 campaign in the booth. That distinction will belong to …
29. Matt Ryan will have an electric debut as a color commentator
The not-retired-because–Jim Irsay–owes-me-millions quarterback is going to do some booth work and studio work this year. Unlike Drew Brees, who everyone assumed would make a natural transition to broadcasting (but struggled mightily), Ryan emerges as an untapped spring of humorous anecdotes. Just by looking at Ryan, you can tell he’s a guy who has seen some stuff. He buttoned himself up to be the corporate leader of two different franchises. Now it’s time to make some Jeff Saturday jokes on the air.
30. Neither Bijan Robinson nor Jahmyr Gibbs will lead all rookies in rushing
Looking beyond the two first-round picks, I think there are truly some boom candidates, especially in the second-through-fourth-round group that includes Devon Achane, Roschon Johnson and Zach Charbonnet. Hell, now that Pete Carroll has been freed and emboldened after the Russell Wilson ouster, he may have two 1,000-yard rushers. He may never pass again! No cooking!
Jim Dedmon/USA TODAY Sports
31. Speaking of Wilson, I predict he will not start a majority of the Broncos’ games under center
Why? Sean Payton is particular. He’s the head chef, and, while the quarterback is an integral part of making up his game plan, if you’re not running the plays as designed, he’s going to find someone who will. Jarrett Stidham, fresh off a solid end-of-season run with the Raiders, looks to be a kind of Payton muse while the coach formulates the real, long-term solution that he likely spent this entire offseason plotting.
32. Chase Young will not finish the season as a member of the Commanders
This makes too much sense. At some point, it would be hard not to imagine someone giving Washington just a little bit more than the team would make on compensatory value for Young. He was not granted his fifth-year option and played in just 11 games this year, having been unable so far to follow up a solid 7.5-sack debut season. The 2020 No. 2 pick can and will resurrect his career elsewhere (call that a subprediction). Leaving the Commanders is a bit like getting out of the dentist’s office. Your whole perception on life changes.
33. Jared Goff will set the table for a contract extension that tops Daniel Jones’s next year
He is going to throw for at least 28 touchdowns and 4,400 yards. Whether or not the Lions want to keep him long-term, he’s going to make a lot of money in 2024. Goff is 28 and just rounding into the best years of his career. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Lions move to extend him midseason, especially if he’s playing well. Detroit is never going to lose enough games to get itself into the squalor for the Williams-Maye lottery. This is the right move.
34. A beautiful, happily rotund German man initially dressed as Andy Reid will streak across the football field in Frankfurt Stadium wearing only a mustache
The video will go viral, and Reid, after the game, will say, “Heh, yeah, well the German fans certainly seemed happy to have us. Maybe I’ll take him out for a cheeseburger.”
35. Samaje Perine will break your heart in the fantasy football playoffs
You thought you had it in the bag, didn’t you? Best team in the regular season. Mobile quarterback putting up 30 points per game. You didn’t account for the internal audit manager from the third floor picking up Perine off waivers the night before the semifinals. Perine, now on the Broncos, will score three rushing touchdowns and catch an absurd 11 checkdown passes in the kind of slow-drip assassination of your fantasy dreams that makes you want to quit the sport forever.
36. J.K. Dobbins will rush for 1,200 yards
The 2020 second-round pick will have a fully healthy 17-game season and put up a top-five-caliber season in terms of total yardage for a running back. The Ravens, as is tradition, will finish as one of the top three rushing teams in the NFL.
37. Christian Kirk will catch 100 passes
The Trent Baalke revenge tour continues. Kirk, who was initially the poster child for the seemingly ridiculous spike in receiver market prices, will put up yet another high-caliber season alongside Trevor Lawrence. Last year, in his first season with the Jaguars, Kirk recorded 1,108 yards on 84 catches.
38. You will forget to cancel Peacock
The NBC streaming service has exclusive rights to multiple NFL games at the end of the season, including a wild-card game. You will provide your credit card information in a frantic effort to watch kickoff and then soon forget that the media monolith has all of your personal financial information. Four years and almost $300 later, your new significant other, who is much better with money, will discover the recurring charge on your credit card bill.
39. C.J. Stroud will get more passes batted down than Bryce Young
Because the discourse around QB height is mostly very silly.
40. Chase Claypool will score the longest nonkickoff return touchdown of the season
On a bootleg throwback dangerously—brilliantly?—called inside the Bears’ 2-yard line.
41. We will get really upset about something strategically savvy the Raiders do this season and blame Tom Brady
How weird is this going to be? The Raiders’ fan base, one of the most consistently aggrieved and conspiracy-theory-minded in the NFL, is now owned and controlled by a consortium of former Patriots. In Week 4, something strange is going to happen with the manipulation of their game day active roster or injury report, and the rest of the league is going to look straight at the pseudo-retired quarterback in the owner’s suite for answers.
42. Gambling investigations have not yet claimed their biggest fish
This year there will be a monumental, season-altering suspension unlike anything we’ve seen before. That is saying a lot, given that Calvin Ridley missed an entire season in his prime for a team that was, at the time, possibly a fringe playoff contender. I would guess that someone who has made multiple Pro Bowls, or perhaps a young, active NFL quarterback will get wrapped up in a scandal the league will try relentlessly to tamp down.
Michael Chow/The Republic/USA TODAY NETWORK
43. The Browns will acquire DeAndre Hopkins
I think Browns management knows, deep down, that after they completely embarrassed themselves in acquiring Deshaun Watson, the only aspect of the move that could make them look worse would be if Watson underperforms. Through six games as a Brown, Watson has underperformed. Hopkins has already succeeded in extricating himself from one of the worst franchises in sports. Now he gets to pick his next NFL home In Cleveland, he can reunite with the QB from his three first-team All-Pro seasons.
44. Austin Ekeler will lead the NFL in total touchdowns for a third straight year
Ekeler is remaining with the Chargers, which was a brilliant piece of self-realization from their general manager and coach. He is an invaluable part of the process in L.A. The team will be rewarded with another massive chunk of touchdowns from the goal-line sniper himself. Ekeler is as automatic and dependable as it gets inside the 5-yard line.
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45. Aaron Rodgers will prove to be a model citizen in New Jersey, free of drama
I have voiced this prediction elsewhere, but even amid the chaos that routinely is the Jets, Rodgers will not be rolled up in any scandal. The legendary quarterback has his eyes on legacy and understands that succumbing to a New York tabloid burial is the quickest way to alter long-term perception. In fact, proving a model citizen in the world’s biggest media market would probably also help whitewash some of his more controversial statements of the past.
46. Giants rookie wide receiver Jalin Hyatt will score at least five touchdowns
Hyatt famously told a Cowboys receivers coach what was up during the predraft process. I’m not going to doubt the guy. Nor am I going to doubt Brian Daboll’s ability to put speed and size in space. I don’t care much how technical Hyatt’s game is. Daboll will get him the ball, and Hyatt will figure out the rest just fine.
47. Rumblings will emerge of a Davante Adams trade request
While those rumblings will ultimately go nowhere, given the impossibility of trading Adams at the moment, thanks to his prohibitive contract, he will further make his unhappiness known. Adams is starting over in 2023 with Jimmy Garoppolo (we think).
48. Something catastrophic will occur during a botched running of a rugby-style short-yardage run
When I canvassed some offensive linemen last year for a prospective story about this very scenario, none of them seemed overly concerned. Still, I can’t shake the idea that so many compressed human bodies can be good over the long term. With teams rushing to copy the Eagles and install that play this offseason, some of the nuance will be lost. Someone is going to pay the price.
Sean Gardner/Getty Images
49. Derek Carr will post 30 touchdowns for just the second time in his career
Freed from all matters of ridiculousness in Las Vegas, Carr is now starting over with a pretty talented wide receiver set in New Orleans and an offense that could be nearly as successful running the football and taking pressure off his shoulders. Still, this is also not an offense that is going to steal goal line scores away from the QB.
50. The Cowboys will re-sign Ezekiel Elliott
There are seemingly not a great deal of other options for Dallas at this point, when you really look at it. Behind Tony Pollard are a slew of unproven commodities. Pollard is coming off a serious injury. The run game is going to be instrumental to Dallas’s success. If I were, say, the Giants or the Eagles, I would swallow the $3 million to $6 million or so it would take to get Elliott out of the hands of a rival, not because he’s that good, but because he could represent the difference between the bottom falling out in Dallas or not.
51. The squib kick will rule 2023
One of the potential side effects of giving players a fair catch at the 25-yard line on kickoffs is that more teams will try to strategically squib the ball to prevent action and negatively shift the opposition’s starting field position. There is little doubt Bill Belichick has spent the spring with a tee, lecturing his kicker.
52. The NFL will have to confront its loudest calls yet to curb tanking
Despite naked plays for higher draft picks in recent years by multiple franchises, the positioning we see this year will be unlike anything we’ve seen before. In hindsight, it’s almost miraculous that there wasn’t more of a blatant surrendering during the 2020 season for Trevor Lawrence. And, speaking of him …
53. Trevor Lawrence will become the 10th quarterback to pass for more than 5,000 yards in a season
Lawrence continues to “get it” at such a substantial speed, and, while the Jaguars’ running game suffered a bit from some stretches of pedestrian play last year, it was all the more reason for Doug Pederson to seriously consider an offense that almost never takes the ball out of Lawrence’s hands. Potentially generational QB, great wide receivers … what’s so hard about that?
54. Dameon Pierce will lead the league in broken tackles
The Texans’ running back, who finished a not-so-distant fourth in the category last year, had a lot of high-mileage backs in front of him. Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs are all elite, obviously, but are probably entering periods in their careers in which it’s less desirable to spend all that sweat equity hammering into opponents for a few extra yards.
55. Five teams that made the playoffs last year will miss the postseason this year
The Buccaneers, Dolphins, Giants, Seahawks and Vikings will all be on the outside looking in.
56. Reports of the Justin Jefferson contract extension framework will emerge
And the deal will be massive. Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah already made the dreaded Rex Ryan–Darrelle Revis faux pas (waxing poetic specifically about the player’s value to the roster and how important it is to have him schematically), meaning Minnesota will be digging into the Wilf family pockets soon. Jefferson will replace Kirk Cousins’s $35 million salary in the budget once the team gets rid of him. Which also means …
57. The Vikings will make a relatively low-cost and high-upside maneuver to secure their quarterback for 2024 ahead of the market
Trey Lance? Zach Wilson? Mac Jones? The Vikings are not going to catch as many good-luck heaters as they did in winning 13 games a year ago. They will be middling and will also have to confront life after a very good quarterback who commands a fully guaranteed salary each season.
58. Felix Anudike-Uzomah will have the most sacks out of the rookie first-round pass rushers
The Texans traded up to No. 3 for Will Anderson Jr. The Raiders took Tyree Wilson No. 7. But only one team is going to be playing with enough leads for a rookie to gain sacks in bundles (the Jets might, but the defense may be a little crowded for the talented Will McDonald IV right now). Welcome to Chiefs Kingdom, “King” Felix, the No. 31 pick.
59. Tulane will have its first quarterback drafted since J.P. Losman went No. 22 in 2004, and this one will be picked even higher
Michael Pratt can sling it. Take it from the guy who started the Will Levis hype train and hop on before this thing leaves the station.
60. Commanders rookie Emmanuel Forbes will have multiple pick-sixes
Forbes is so fast off the line of scrimmage and despite his slender frame will be ideal at picking off bubble screens and other quick throws. The No. 16 pick has explosive speed (4.35 in the 40 at the combine) and—bonus prediction—on one of those pick-sixes he will become the fastest ballcarrier of the year in terms of miles per hour (tracked by NFL Next Gen Stats).
61. It’s Kadarius Toney season
My prediction for the 2021 first-round pick: 55 catches, 620 yards and seven total touchdowns. The Chiefs relied on Toney’s speed a year ago, and, while Skyy Moore will be the true pace setter of this offense this year, Toney will add a maddening flavor, diversifying all the ways in which Kansas City can already beat teams.
62. John Metchie III will put up at least 700 receiving yards
This may sound like a lot, given how the Texans’ offense is likely to operate under a rookie quarterback and a new coordinator from the 49ers’ tree (Bobby Slowik). This system will be designed as a run-first option, but Metchie, who has recovered after missing his rookie season due to leukemia, is ready to tear up a football field again.
63. The Chiefs will be undefeated heading into their Week 10 bye
Apologies to the Lions, Jaguars, Bears, Jets, Vikings, Broncos (twice), Chargers and Dolphins. A Super Bowl rematch against the Eagles on MNF will be the only thing standing in their way of a perfect record at Thanksgiving.
64. Michael Thomas will revive his career with a solid 2023
The Saints receiver, who once caught 149 passes in a season and logged more than 1,700 receiving yards, was never the same following that 2019 season. But that does not mean he can’t be great again. Derek Carr will bring out the best in this workhorse receiver, whom the Saints could have easily gotten rid of this offseason.
65. Will Levis will appear in three games for the Titans, who’ll finish with a winning record
Do I think the Titans will win the AFC South? No. Do I think Ryan Tannehill is completely and totally washed? Not necessarily. Do I think Will Levis will eventually be the answer? Yes. I think Levis will get eased into action, though the Titans don’t need him to take live bullets right away.
66. Odell Beckham Jr. will make a catch that is not as good as the catch but is still pretty damn wild
I am rooting for Beckham, because I believe he has sincerity in there. He wants to get back to form despite some horrendous luck with injuries. There are two factors working in favor of this prediction: One is that Beckham’s incredible hand-eye coordination did not simply go away. The other is that Lamar Jackson’s willingness to take chances with the ball will give Beckham more opportunities to do something that can be placed on a T-shirt or run on a Nike ad.
67. Neither Mike Williams nor Keenan Allen will lead the Chargers in receiving
The Chargers decided to prevent an aging-out of their receiving corps by working a year ahead in the 2023 draft. Maybe Quentin Johnston will be the guy. Maybe Josh Palmer. Either way, a pair of Chargers offensive stalwarts will witness a changing of the guard.
68. Joe Flacco will do something meaningful on the football field
Flacco still wants to play. Flacco can still sling it. Remember the Jets’ comeback win over the Browns last year? That guy is still out there! I predict he’ll come into the fourth quarter of a tight game due to injury and pilot a team to victory.
69. The Colts (6.5), Rams (6.5) and Cowboys (9.5) will all hit on their win total overs
Free money! You are welcome.
70. The Cowboys will start the season 0–2
Back-to-back losses to the Giants and Jets will give them a unique case of the New York blues.
71. Sam Howell will throw more than 14 touchdown passes
I am of the mind that Howell will be O.K. in Washington. And while the written word sometimes prevents us from making a clear point, I am saying O.K. in the way one might describe a strange-looking appetizer being passed around at an event that turns out to be much better than you thought.
72. Desmond Ridder will finish in the top 10 among quarterbacks in completion percentage
The Falcons are going to be playing some box-lacrosse-style football this year, which, I promise, is more fun than it sounds. That means Ridder will be more of a point guard and a distributor for his fleet of targets. He’ll do so with notable accuracy.
73. Nick Sirianni will have the best Coach Saying™ of the year
Sirianni, who famously called his budding Eagles powerhouse a flower that had not yet bloomed, will reach into his bag of tricks and wow us again. Perhaps 2023 will be the first step in a million-mile march, signifying his team’s slog to get through the Super Bowl LVII loss, or perhaps he will show up in a naval uniform and tell his players that smooth seas don’t make good sailors. Either way, Sirianni will have his finger on the pulse.
74. Al Michaels will stop making gambling jokes
This will be the ultimate bummer, but given how the NFL has aggressively (absurdly?) combatted player gambling, my guess is the league will encourage the wonderful play-by-play man to steer clear of making references to any over/unders or certain wagers deeper into the season. The NFL continues to sanitize its most beautiful moments.
75. The highest-graded offensive rookie by Pro Football Focus will be …
Giants center John Michael Schmitz. The second-round pick was almost unanimously believed to be the cleanest offensive line prospect in the draft. Schmitz will help piece together a talented but relatively disjointed offensive line that has lacked a critical glue piece. PFF will give Schmitz an 89.1 grade on the season.
76. Ron DeSantis will absolutely rifle a football on the campaign trail at some point
I have absolutely no opinion on the upcoming presidential election that I would care to share here. This is not an endorsement of any kind. However, it is an acknowledgment that the Florida governor, who announced his bid for president, is likely to start stopping in various diners around the country. DeSantis played baseball at Yale and was a team captain. He was an outfielder, and while I don’t think that a throw from outfield to home plate directly translates to a 25-yard rope with a football, it would seem like the kind of move that, if you could do it, why wouldn’t you do it in front of possible voters? Once a day, I long for a football to come idly rolling into my radius so I can pick it up and tear every ligament in my body trying to chuck it.
As an aside, again, it would be kind of fun to have a president we could talk about in an athletic context again (cart golf is not a sport).
77. Jameson Williams will score six touchdowns in his final 11 games
While no one was hoping for a gambling suspension for the talented 2022 first-round pick, the Lions will be able to hold serve with their dominant running game plus an underrated and still improving quarterback in Jared Goff (not to mention one of the best-designed offenses in football). That will give Williams a bit of the element of surprise when he comes back. Defenses won’t be prepared for how easily he can decimate a secondary.
Sergio Estrada/USA TODAY Sports
78. Carson Wentz will sign with the Packers
I think Green Bay will ultimately need to add a veteran body behind Jordan Love. This team cannot, as the Jets did during Zach Wilson’s rookie season, surround the first-year starter only with help in the QB room that seems unthreatening. Wentz has struggled in different offenses, but it would be worth seeing how his style of play would lose some of its unpredictability in a Green Bay offense with two stout running backs and some good tight end play.
79. The Chargers will make the best remaining signing of free agency by nabbing John Johnson III
Johnson was lost in a horribly schemed Browns defense but can reunite with former coordinator Brandon Staley to make magic again. Staley is the closest thing we have to a definitive this-coach-needs-to-win-big season, and he will not take any chances when it comes to depth in his secondary.
80. Justin Herbert won’t set a career high in touchdowns, but he will set a career low in interceptions
Herbert will throw 33 touchdowns this year under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. He will throw only nine interceptions. Dak Prescott threw at least 10 in all three full seasons he played with Moore as OC.
81. Justin Houston will have a pair of critical sacks in the Super Bowl
The 34-year-old pass-rushing stalwart has not signed with a team yet but will prove exceptionally useful for a playoff contender in need of some extra gas off the edge. It reminds me a bit of late-career Dwight Freeney, who was a playoff menace during his time with the Cardinals and Falcons.
82. Aidan O’Connell will start at least one game for the Raiders
The Patriots, or any Patriots-adjacent franchise, can’t go a full season without obsessively plotting for a late-round quarterback to completely backstab the starter amid struggles. O’Connell, who started 26 games at Purdue, was taken with the last pick in the fourth round.
83. Contending NFL franchises will begin to experiment with more strategic player rest down the stretch
After watching the NBA and NHL playoffs proceed with seeding utterly meaningless (relatively speaking), people around the NFL will start to realize how gigantic their postseason tournament really is and how much more beneficial it would be to coast in as a lower seed healthy, than slump into a top seed exhausted.
84. The RPO will get a stylistic makeover
Given Jalen Hurts’s success over the past two years, and the soon-to-come success of Anthony Richardson, we’ll start hearing a twinge on the abused RPO acronym. It will be more commonly referred to as the RPRO, adding, as the Eagles have, an additional run option to stymie opponents. Good luck catching Richardson on one of these.
85. The Jets are not done adding old Aaron Rodgers teammates
Veteran tight end Marcedes Lewis will join the fold. Lewis is a back-breaking blocker who can help alleviate some of the team’s uncertainties up front. He was instrumental in some of Green Bay’s best seasons on offense under Nathaniel Hackett.
86. Speaking of Aaron Rodgers, here are his 2023 numbers in full
28 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 3,981 passing yards.
87. The Bills will clinch a playoff berth in wild fashion at the end of the season
Last year’s team of heartbreak will become this year’s late-season team of destiny. Facing a must-win situation at Miami in Week 18, Buffalo will win the game on a 54-yard field goal set up by a miraculous, diving pass by Josh Allen with time quickly ticking down.
Nicole Hester/The Tennessean/USA TODAY NETWORK
88. Taylor Swift will headline an absolutely ham-fisted smorgasbord of surprise stars at the Super Bowl halftime show
I predicted this a year ago, dammit, and I’m running it back. This has been the season of Swift, but the pop icon, wary from her unbelievably expensive and expansive summer tour, will require some help. Las Vegas resident DJ Steve Aoki, the K-pop band BTS and both Mick Jagger and Keith Richards can answer the call. It will cost the city of Las Vegas $700 million and derail several high-profile public transportation projects.
89. The 49ers will lead the NFL in yards per play
The Chiefs have led the category in each of the past two seasons.
90. Steve Belichick will get a defensive coordinator interview outside of New England
While the Patriots’ pseudo-codefensive coordinator has long been associated with his famous father, one franchise engaged in a far-reaching head coaching hiring cycle will even bring Belichick in for a head coaching interview. The 36-year-old has been an assistant with the Patriots since 2012.
91. Josh McCown will get a head coaching job
Long assumed to be coveted by the Texans, McCown, a long-time NFL backup, will do solid work with Bryce Young and fill a role opening up for another NFL team trying to mentor a young quarterback.
92. The love of your life will announce her plans for a divorce midway through the second quarter of a Cardinals game
Your worst suspicions were confirmed. She’s in love with someone she met via Peloton. After realtor fees, you’ll split $78,000 in profits from your shared condominium downtown.
93. Joe Burrow will do something cool with his contract so the Bengals can re-sign all of his wide receiver friends
Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins are not long for Cincinnati, unless the Tiger King includes some wild provision that slides some of his contractual windfall toward his teammates so the Bengals can continue their stranglehold on the AFC North. I’m not saying it’s right, but I’m saying it might be a subtly Joe Cool thing for Burrow to do.
94. The strategic lateral will gain momentum as a more regular occurrence
This play will be one of the most-practiced of the offseason, allowing a ballcarrier with tremendous momentum to hit the open field and gain extra yardage after the snap.
95. Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. will rush for more than 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns
Robinson, who was a third-round pick in 2022, played in 12 games after recovering from a gunshot wound before the start of his rookie season. He managed 797 yards and three total touchdowns.
96. Damar Hamlin will win Comeback Player of the Year
I’m not sure how much, if at all, Hamlin will play this year, after recovering from a near-death experience on the football field in Week 17. That’s none of my business. All I know is that he is practicing, and, if it is his wish to play again, the moment he steps onto the field, he’ll cement his place as Comeback Player of the Year.
97. Christian Gonzalez will win Defensive Rookie of the Year
As we’ve written a few times, Bill Belichick is still an excellent defensive coach. I’ve spoken to players who say his pregame tips and messaging are so good they feel it’s unfair. While I’m not suggesting his rookie cornerback needs this, if you pair an obviously talented player with expert instruction, the results are typically very good.
98. Ja’Marr Chase will win Offensive Player of the Year
If you think about it, this award has such a narrow scope. At the beginning of any season, someone could reasonably assume that anyone on offense could win this award. But really, it’s a select list of offensive players whose functioning is essential to the system, who can put up a large enough statistical sample size to impress voters. That leaves Chase, Justin Jefferson (who we may assume will see a slight decline in production given the addition of another first-round pick at the position, and defenses generally being sick of getting demolished by him), Cooper Kupp, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry and a small handful of others. Given that we are projecting Burrow’s production to continue skyward, so, too, will Chase’s.
99. Myles Garrett will win Defensive Player of the Year
The Browns spent their offseason intent on setting him up for more good runs at the quarterback. This defense, with a different look under new coordinator Jim Schwartz, could be near dominant. Garrett will lead the league in sacks.
En route to a second Super Bowl appearance in three years, Burrow’s greatness will finally be recognized by the voters. He will throw for 40 touchdowns and lead the Bengals to a 13-win season. Buoyed by his contract extension, which will come in at a $55 million average per year, Burrow will start working his way into statue territory in Cincinnati.
