What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the first weekend of Week 2? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 2 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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– Week 2 Expert Picks & Predictions: Saturday
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Get ready for a theme in Week 2 – redemption, and the overreaction.
Week 1 is always a bit of a mirage, especially when teams that are supposed to be good haven’t jelled. Forget the upsets and strange collapses; the big boys – Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan, Texas A&M – failed to cover, too.
That means there should be plenty of good values to be had. Desperation can be a wonderful thing when it comes to figuring out who’s going to be focused, and it all starts out with …
10 Best ATS Picks So Far: 7-6
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
10. San Diego State at UCLA
LINE: UCLA -7.5, o/u: 45.5
ATS PICK: UCLA
UCLA was a hot mess in the loss to Cincinnati. Several key parts were hurt, the offense couldn’t get anything moving, and the passing game was non-existent. Also, chalk it up to it being a strange road game.
Sometimes teams go over a few time zones to play and are just … off.
Okay, so that’s a huge stretch – and it doesn’t give any credit to Cincinnati – but at home, get ready for the Bruins to at least do something right against a San Diego State team with an even worse offense. It’ll be a low-scoring fight, but the Aztecs have absolutely no punch whatsoever with RB Juwan Washington suffering an ankle injury.
9. UTSA at Baylor
LINE: Baylor -26.5, o/u: 57.45
ATS PICK: UTSA
How much do you really want to believe that UTSA turned some sort of an offensive corner after beating Incarnate Word 35-7? How much do you want to believe that Baylor might just want to take care of business and move on?
The Bears were terrific at getting all the parts working in the blowout over Stephen F. Austin, but the UTSA defense is better than what the Lumberjacks brought. Hitting the same 17 point mark – Baylor beat SFA 56-17 – isn’t asking for the world. 26.5 is just big enough to expect the Roadrunners – who were far worse last year and lost to the Bears by 13 – to cover late.
8. Tulane at Auburn
LINE: Auburn -17.5, o/u: 51.5
ATS PICK: Tulane
This is about Tulane and its solid veteran team that should be able to give the Tigers problems.
Auburn’s defense is good enough to win this without too much drama, but the Tulane team that managed to destroy a really, really good FIU 42-14 – at least, really good in the Conference USA world – has the coaching, the experience, and the parts to step into Jordan-Hare and make this a bit of a fight.
The SEC will get the win, but Tulane will keep the Tigers to around 30 points.
7. UTEP at Texas Tech
LINE: Texas Tech -34.5, o/u: 64.5
ATS PICK: Texas Tech
Granted, this is a big ask.
Texas Tech had everything working under new head coach Matt Wells, and it still only beat Montana State by 35 – and now you’re asking to win by 35 or more again.
As bad as UTEP has been over the years, it hasn’t been totally annihilated all that often. The biggest blowout in last season’s 1-11 campaign was by 32 against Southern Miss.
Wells is still trying to get his era going. His Utah State offense hit the 50 point mark seven times last season, and he’s got better parts with his new program – and it all looked good last week. Again, it’s a big number, but expect at least 50 points out of the Red Raiders.
6. Buffalo at Penn State
LINE: Penn State -28.5, o/u: 56.5
ATS PICK: Penn State
Buffalo has some nice parts, even if most of the stars are done from last year’s should’ve-been MAC Champion. The Bulls won 38-10 over Robert Morris to kick things off, and now they’re about to run into a buzzsaw.
Don’t discount just how merciless Penn State has been at times under James Franklin.
Last year, it hammered Pitt 51-6, followed it up with a 53-point win over Kent State, and after that put 63 on Illinois. With a young team and several new key starting parts, the foot will stay down on the gas – see last week’s 79-7 squeaker over Idaho. The Nittany Lion underclassmen will keep trying enough in the second half to cover.
NEXT: The Top Five
5. New Mexico State at Alabama
LINE: Alabama -54.5, o/u: 64.5
ATS PICK: New Mexico State
Last year I gave you my belief before the Alabama-Citadel game that you always take 50+ points if someone wants to give them to you. Too many things have to happen for any team to win a game by more than the half-century mark, and if they all come together, you tip your cap and move on.
Of course Alabama is going to destroy the Aggie team that lost to Washington State last week. But to the point of the massive spread, Wazzu was nearly flawless, it kept playing for all four quarters, and it annihilated NMSU – by 51.
Even last season when the Aggies got crushed by Utah State and allowed 60 points, they still lost by 47. They allowed 66 to the Ragin’ Cajuns of Louisiana and lost by 28.
This is more about Alabama, though.
Nick Saban’s team put up 62 on Ole Miss last year and BARELY covered the 54.5 spread. Two years ago, the Tide rolled the Rebels by 63, and they stomped on Mercer 56-0, but for the most part, they get up fast, rest everyone, and move on.
Again, this is more about a belief system. Someone is handing you 54.5 points. You take them.
NEXT: Revenge time …
4. Old Dominion at Virginia Tech
LINE: Virginia Tech -27.5, o/u: 55.5
ATS PICK: Virginia Tech
Normally you’d be worried about a game like this.
Relatively local, sort of a throwaway game before bigger things come for the better team, a large spread, but there’s one key part …
2018, Old Dominion 49, Virginia Tech 35.
Don’t think the Hokies and their fans haven’t had to hear about that for the better part of a year.
Since that loss, Virginia Tech has been on a ugly 4-8 run that includes last week’s ACC opener loss to Boston College. Head coach Justin Fuente is sitting on a toasty seat, there’s a whole lot of grumbling happening, and the program needs a big, ugly, cathartic blowout win.
The Hokies played well in the loss to BC – outside of a slew of big turnovers. If they limit the mistakes, a 28 point win over a Monarch team that struggled to get by Norfolk State last week won’t be an issue.
NEXT: A Week 1 aberration, or was it the real deal? …
3. Wake Forest at Rice
LINE: Wake Forest -18.5, o/u: 57.5
ATS PICK: Wake Forest
Wake Forest has to go on the road to face a Rice team that gave Army a whole host of problems in a 14-7 Knight win to kick off the season.
There’s a reasonable concern that the Owls might have found something defensively in Mike Bloomgren’s second season, and there’s a worry that the running game might be able to blast away on the squishy-soft Wake Forest defensive front.
Nah.
It might have been a good fight by the Owls, but that also made if seven times in the last nine games that they failed to score more than 17 points. Last year they put up 24 on Wake Forest, and still lost by 32.
The Demon Deacons might have to travel, but they’re bringing an offense that Rice doesn’t have. It will take a little bit, but you’ll be fine by the fourth quarter.
NEXT: But can they have Gatorade? …
2. ULM at Florida State
LINE: Florida State -21.5, o/u: 62.5
ATS PICK: Florida State
Let’s just assume Florida State will have its dehydration problems fixed this week.
Just like Tennessee needs to come back roaring after an ugly Week One, it’s redemption time for FSU after its bonk against Boise State.
ULM has a dangerous enough offense to worry a wee bit about that 21.5. Florida State couldn’t handle Boise State’s ground game, its air attack, or anything else in the second half. However, in the first half, that’s the Florida State we all know, love, and expect to come out each and every week.
How did the Warhawks do in their two games against Power Five programs last season? Ole Miss 70, ULM 21. Texas A&M 49, ULM 10.
ULM has been blasted by 28 or more in each of its last eight games against Power Fivers going back to a 2014 21-16 fight against Texas A&M. This also includes a 42-10 loss at the end of 2017 against a painfully mediocre Florida State squad.
The Seminoles are about to unleash the fury.
NEXT: Be better than the Belk … Be better than the Belk …
Week 2 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 2 Expert Picks & Predictions: Saturday
1. Texas A&M at Clemson
LINE: Clemson -17.5, o/u: 64.5
ATS PICK: Texas A&M
If you’re going to get Clemson in the Dabo era, do it early. It usually takes his teams a month before it destroys everything in its path.
A&M almost got the upset last year. Auburn battled in a 14-6 loss in Week 2 of 2017, lost 19-13 to open up 2016, and both Louisville and Notre Dame came way-too-close to pulling off wins in the first four games of 2015.
You don’t need the Aggies to actually win this. You need Jimbo Fisher’s team to show up and keep it within 17.5, and this team can absolutely do that.
Of course, there’s one problem – Clemson happens to be amazing again, and it’s on a roll of 11 straight games where it easy blew past the 18-point margin.
Yeah, that 44-16 thing over Bama is still hanging out there.
And it’s not like Texas A&M is above having issues under Fisher. It got rolled by Bama last season by 22, lost to Mississippi State by 15, and it could absolutely play well against Clemson and still lose 38-20 to screw this all up.
Maybe this is hoping for this to be a close game that’s as good as last year’s 28-26 Clemson win.
Maybe this is simply trying to make a pick happen.
Or maybe, Texas A&M is the best team on the Clemson schedule and really just that good to put up enough of a fight to get by that 17.5.
The Aggies have the athletes, experience, and talent to make this a game – or, at worst, come up with just enough fourth quarter points in a blowout to make the final score look cosmetically okay.
