Millions of voters across the United Kingdom believe net migration is continuing to rise despite official figures showing a sharp decline in recent years, according to new research published ahead of the latest government migration data.
A study by the think tank British Future found significant gaps between public perception and official migration figures, with many people across the political spectrum incorrectly believing immigration levels are increasing.
According to The Guardian, net migration fell from a peak of 944,000 in the year to March 2023 to 204,000 in the year to June 2025. Newly released figures published on Thursday showed a further drop to 171,000 last year, marking one of the lowest levels recorded in recent years.
The Office for National Statistics said the continued decline was largely driven by fewer arrivals from outside the European Union for work purposes. Non-EU work arrivals reportedly fell by 47 per cent in 2025.
Over the 12 months to December 2025, an estimated 813,000 people immigrated to the UK, while around 642,000 emigrated.
Despite the decline, British Future’s research found that 67 per cent of people with sceptical views on immigration believed net migration had increased during 2025. Among those with more liberal views, 37 per cent also believed migration numbers had risen.
The study also found that six in 10 people who wanted immigration reduced believed overall migration levels were still increasing. Only 15 per cent of respondents expected net migration to fall further over the next year.
Researchers identified widespread misconceptions surrounding asylum seekers and international students. Survey participants estimated asylum seekers accounted for around 33 per cent of immigration, while the actual figure was reported to be about 9 per cent.
Many respondents also underestimated the proportion of migrants arriving in Britain for study purposes.
British Future director Sunder Katwala said the findings reflected how public debate surrounding immigration continued to shape perceptions regardless of official statistics.
He said the discussion around immigration remained heavily focused on reducing numbers rather than addressing both the pressures and economic contributions linked to migration.
Immigration has remained one of the most politically sensitive issues in Britain since the Brexit referendum, with debates over Channel crossings, asylum policies and border controls continuing to dominate political discourse.
The report noted that concerns about immigration cut across party lines as Labour, Conservative and Reform UK politicians continue pushing for stricter migration policies ahead of the next general election.
Research manager Sophie Stowers from More in Common said public concern about immigration was increasingly tied to wider anxieties surrounding economic stability, public services and confidence in government systems.
British Future conducted the research with Number Cruncher Politics using a survey of 3,003 adults across Great Britain in March.
