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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
World
David Smith in Washington

Trump made 10 key pledges a year ago – here’s what happened since then

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There was no debate about record crowd sizes this time. With the temperature plunging to 27F (-3C) and a wind chill making it feel far colder, Donald Trump’s second inauguration was held in the rotunda at the US Capitol in Washington on 20 January 2025.

The great and the good of the political elite were there, including former presidents Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama and outgoing president Joe Biden. So were tech oligarchs such as Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg. At 12.10pm, they listened intently as Trump began a half-hour-long inaugural address.

The 47th president painted a bleak picture of America as a country where government was suffering a crisis of trust, failing to defend national borders and stumbling from catastrophe to catastrophe abroad. Reflecting on how he had narrowly escaped assassination, Trump declared: “I was saved by God to make America great again.”

He promised a flurry of executive orders and made bold promises about immigration, the economy and America’s standing in the world. Here is a review of 10 key pledges – and what happened in the year since.

1. Justice

“During every single day of the Trump administration, I will, very simply, put America first. Our sovereignty will be reclaimed. Our safety will be restored. The scales of justice will be rebalanced. The vicious, violent, and unfair weaponisation of the justice department and our government will end.”

Crime went down in every major category across the US during Trump’s first year in office. There were about 20% fewer murders than in 2024, one of the bigger drops ever, according to the Real Time Crime Index, which uses local crime data from nearly 600 jurisdictions.

Trump’s first pick for attorney general, Matt Gaetz, was knocked back but he settled on another loyalist, Pam Bondi, who has enforced his will with zeal. The president declared “we are the federal law” and rapidly dismissed 17 independent inspectors general despite legal objections.

He ordered the justice department to investigate whistleblower Miles Taylor; Chris Krebs, a cybersecurity director who refuted unfounded claims of 2020 election fraud; James Comey, the former director of the FBI; Letitia James, the New York attorney general; and Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chairman.

Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center thinktank in Washington, said: “His supporters think that he is incredibly successful. That’s why, despite everything, he retains large support from the Republican party. He has a higher job approval rating at this point than Biden did at a similar point in his administration.

“I would say objectively he has helped make the country safer in terms of crime – crime stats are clearly down, fentanyl deaths are clearly down. I can’t say 100% of the improvements are due to him but it can’t be zero.

Kurt Bardella, a political commentator and former congressional aide, says: “He spent a lot of time in his inaugural address talking about the immense power of the state and how it can be weaponised to persecute political opponents and he bemoaned what he perceived to be that which was done to him. Yet we’ve seen him at every step of the way turn around and do that, wielding the power of executive in ways that we’ve just never seen before.”

2. Voters of colour

“To the Black and Hispanic communities, I want to thank you for the tremendous outpouring of love and trust that you have shown me with your vote. We set records, and I will not forget it. I’ve heard your voices in the campaign, and I look forward to working with you in the years to come.”

Trump drew record support from Black (13%) and Hispanic (46%) voters in 2024 but his policies drew criticism for hurting these communities. Diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programmes were eliminated across government while a hardline crackdown on immigration spread fear among Latino communities.

Trump assembled the least diverse US government this century, packing his cabinet with white men at the expense of people of colour. Nine in 10 individuals confirmed by the Senate in the first 300 days of the second Trump administration were white, according to the Brookings Institution thinktank in Washington.

No major new initiatives specifically favouring these communities were launched, though Trump claimed his tax reforms would benefit everyone. But in a New York Times interview, Trump claimed that the Civil Rights Act of 1964 led to white people being “very badly treated”.

3. Immigration

“First, I will declare a national emergency at our southern border. All illegal entry will immediately be halted, and we will begin the process of returning millions and millions of criminal aliens back to the places from which they came. We will reinstate my Remain in Mexico policy. I will end the practice of catch and release. And I will send troops to the southern border to repel the disastrous invasion of our country.

“Under the orders I sign today, we will also be designating the cartels as foreign terrorist organisations. And by invoking the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, I will direct our government to use the full and immense power of federal and state law enforcement to eliminate the presence of all foreign gangs and criminal networks bringing devastating crime to US soil, including our cities and inner cities.”

No issue has been more divisive in Trump’s first year. As promised, a national emergency was declared on day one, leading to more than 622,000 deportations and 1.9 million self-deportations by December. Remain in Mexico was reinstated, catch and release ended and troops deployed, reducing border encounters to 1970s lows.

Cartels were designated terrorists and the Alien Enemies Act was invoked to deport Venezuelans to a mega-jail in El Salvador. The so-called “big, beautiful bill” allocated $170bn for enforcement including detention expansion and border barriers.

The national guard, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and other federal forces were deployed to Democratic-run cities, often against the wishes of local authorities. There were harrowing reports of ICE agents using excessive force and arresting US citizens as well as masked agents without IDs snatching people off the streets.

In January, during a major operation in Minneapolis, Renee Good, a mother and poet, was shot in the head and killed by an ICE officer. Federal officials said it was an act of self-defence and labelled Good a domestic terrorist; the mayor described the action as reckless and unnecessary. Hundreds of people marched in protest as tensions escalated.

Olsen says:Immigration remains the issue area where on some polls he has positive ratings. Certainly it’s always his best. If the only question before the body politic were immigration, Donald Trump would be close to a 50% job approval rating because that’s what the polls suggest. He is consistently pursuing that vision, much to the consternation of most people who voted for Kamala Harris, but you can’t say you didn’t know what was coming, and at least a plurality and in some cases a majority of Americans approve.”

Bardella says: “We have seen them round up anyone who’s brown that they can find, unleash a mass law enforcement entity that has unlimited power and authority to use as much force as possible to intimidate American citizens and, in some cases, take their life from them. The promise of, I’m going after the worst of the worst of the worst is not what we’ve seen. Poll after poll shows the American people do not approve of the ways in which the Trump administration has pursued immigration enforcement. They think he’s gone too far.”

4. Economy

“Next, I will direct all members of my cabinet to marshal the vast powers at their disposal to defeat what was record inflation and rapidly bring down costs and prices.”

Trump tried to show he is focused on lowering prices but often undercut that effort by simultaneously claiming the economy is strong and the issue of affordability is a Democratic hoax. When he took office the inflation rate was 3%; the consumer price index rose 2.7% in the year to December, a small improvement during 2025 but still showing persistent inflation.

Other economic data was mixed. The fourth quarter of 2025 saw real GDP grow at an annualised 4.3%, up from 3.8% in the second quarter. Employment remains mostly stable; the jobless rate stood at 4.4% in December. The stock market hit record highs, largely thanks to tech companies and AI investment.

But only 36% of Americans approve of Trump’s overall handling of the economy, according to a Reuters/ Ipsos poll conducted on 12 and 13 January – well below his initial 42% rating on the issue when he first took office last year.

But critics say the “one big, beautiful bill” – rebranded as the Working Families Tax Cut Act – will transfer wealth from the poor to the rich and strip healthcare from millions of people. Democrats found electoral success by targeting affordability and Trump’s failure to bring down prices.

Bardella says: “The reality is, whether it’s the cost of living, housing – your mortgage or rent – healthcare, childcare, things in America are more expensive under Donald Trump than they were before him. There seems to be no plan in sight to make those things more accessible and attainable for working families and the only plan is to continue enriching the billionaire class on the backs of the working and middle class of this country.

Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, says: “This is a case where Trump’s hyperbole probably hurt him. Inflation has been stabilised but has he been able to produce this dramatic drop? No, and he’s getting blamed for that. The second part is that many of Donald Trump’s supporters and middle America are the people who are feeling the affordability crisis.”

5. Energy

“The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices, and that is why today I will also declare a national energy emergency. We will drill, baby, drill.

“America will be a manufacturing nation once again, and we have something that no other manufacturing nation will ever have – the largest amount of oil and gas of any country on earth – and we are going to use it. We’ll use it. We will bring prices down, fill our strategic reserves up again right to the top, and export American energy all over the world.”

Trump pursued an “energy dominance” agenda. The US became the world’s leading producer and a net exporter of oil and natural gas, with record production levels achieved through policies that encouraged fracking and expanded drilling access. Oil and gas drilling permits surged by 55%.

Trump initiated the withdrawal of the US from the Paris climate agreement on his first day back in office. In January 2026 he pulled the US out of dozens of international organisations, including the Framework Convention on Climate Change – a treaty that underpins all international efforts to combat global warming.

6. Tariffs

“I will immediately begin the overhaul of our trade system to protect American workers and families. Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens.

“For this purpose, we are establishing the External Revenue Service to collect all tariffs, duties, and revenues. It will be massive amounts of money pouring into our Treasury, coming from foreign sources. The American dream will soon be back and thriving like never before.”

Trump described “tariffs” as his favourite word, a key to bring manufacturing back to US shores. They were also his go-to diplomatic weapon. On 2 April, dubbed “Liberation Day”, he slapped a 10% tax on imports and additional tariffs on imports from about 90 countries. He invoked the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to justify them.

But businesses and several states went to court arguing that Trump overstepped his authority. The supreme court is hearing the case and could throw out Trump’s tariffs and force him to send refunds to the US importers that paid them. Tariffs did not produce the economic apocalypse some predicted. But they did fuel market volatility and raise prices for consumers.

Olsen says: “The jury is out. We should have expected short-term pain. The short-term pain is less than many, including myself, would have expected but that’s not to say it won’t accelerate if the tariffs are kept in place. But the gain is years off. We should rationally keep judgment about Trump’s tariffs open until 2028.”

Jacobs says: “On tariffs, we’re far from understanding what the consequences have been. Again, hyperbole is a tool that Trump has used on the campaign trail but, when it comes to governing, he’s raised expectations to wildly high levels that he’s unable to meet.

“Certainly tariffs have not made us wildly rich. If anything, the consequences have been mixed. Yes, there has been some revenue raised but we also know that there are trade-oriented parts of the economy that have been hit very hard, for instance agriculture.”

7. Doge

“To restore competence and effectiveness to our federal government, my administration will establish the brand new Department of Government Efficiency.”

Trump put billionaire tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, the biggest donor to his 2024 election campaign, in charge of Doge, resulting in a series of head-spinning White House appearances. Musk turned up at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) wielding a chainsaw.

Doge aimed to drastically reduce federal spending, yet its actual financial impact remains highly debated and difficult to verify. While the initiative promised trillions in savings, critics and watchdog groups point to widespread chaos, including the dismantling of essential foreign aid and the mass termination of government employees.

Doge disbanded in November, eight months early. Even Musk has offered a tempered assessment of the project’s success, describing the disruptive endeavor as a “side quest” he might not repeat. But after a long-predicted falling out with Trump, he now seems to be back in the fold.

8. Free speech

“After years and years of illegal and unconstitutional federal efforts to restrict free expression, I also will sign an executive order to immediately stop all government censorship and bring back free speech to America.

“Never again will the immense power of the state be weaponised to persecute political opponents – something I know something about. We will not allow that to happen. It will not happen again.”

Trump targeted law firms that represented perceived enemies, stripping contracts and security clearances to extract multimillion-dollar settlements. Billions in federal funding were frozen for universities including Harvard and Columbia, forcing changes in curricula and leadership by exploiting controversies over antisemitism and DEI policies.

Trump also waged war on mainstream media, suing news organisations such as the BBC, CBS/Paramount, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, pushing the Federal Communications Commission to revoke broadcast licences and restricting access for some outlets while promoting “Maga media”. Political satirist Stephen Colbert was axed by CBS but comedian Jimmy Kimmel was reinstated by ABC after an outcry.

9. DEI and transgender

“This week, I will also end the government policy of trying to socially engineer race and gender into every aspect of public and private life. We will forge a society that is colourblind and merit-based. As of today, it will henceforth be the official policy of the United States government that there are only two genders: male and female.”

Trump moved quickly to eliminate “radical gender ideology and critical race theory [CRT]” from the US schools. He made it official government policy that there are only two sexes and removed the non-binary X (gender-neutral) option from US passports. He signed an executive order that sought to end gender-affirming medical treatments for children and teenagers under the age of 19.

He also ordered the elimination of all DEI programmes in the federal government and related offices, placing staff on leave and removing related websites because they represent “immense public waste and shameful discrimination”. He even blamed a mid-air plane crash in Washington on DEI air traffic controllers. And he sought to purge “divisive, race-centered ideology” from Smithsonian Institution museums.

10. Foreign policy

“Like in 2017, we will again build the strongest military the world has ever seen. We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end – and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.

“My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier. That’s what I want to be: a peacemaker and a unifier. America will reclaim its rightful place as the greatest, most powerful, most respected nation on earth, inspiring the awe and admiration of the entire world.”

Despite railing against the foreign adventures of previous presidents on the campaign trail, Trump ordered military strikes on Iraq, Nigeria, Somalia, Islamic State in Syria, Houthi militants in Yemen and nuclear sites in Iran. The most dramatic move came in early 2026, when months of military build-up in the Caribbean culminated in the bombing of Venezuela and the capture of its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Trump rattled nerves elsewhere, musing about a military operation in Colombia, suggesting the US might seize Greenland by force and seeking further options for hitting the Iranian regime as anti-government protests rage across the country. He repeatedly sided with Russia over Ukraine and made the questionable claim that he ended eight wars.

Olsen says: “One can exaggerate the degree of his influence in bringing various conflicts to a conclusion, or whether those conflicts have in fact concluded, but one cannot doubt that he has tried and in many cases has succeeded in some respect. On the global stage he has some reason to believe that he’s been a peacemaker. Whether he’s been a unifier, well, he has unified much of the world in fear of American power.”

Jacobs says: “Trump obviously has a very different idea of what respected all over the world means. Probably what he means is feared and intimidated; that may be true. In terms of the bipartisan consensus around America as the leader of this rule-based international order, he’s blowing that up. The biggest contradiction there is he promised to make America first and to pull the country back from never-ending military interventions. It’s been the opposite.

Bardella says: “In terms of awe and admiration, the only admiration he’s going to be receiving is from dictators who look at his foreign policy and wish to emulate it or think that they’ve inspired him.

“I don’t think there has ever been a more divisive person in American politics than Donald Trump. The idea that this person is a uniter? He’s not. This is someone who instead likes to use the instruments of government to try to compel fealty and force obedience. He’s not interested in unity; he is interested in servitude and subjugation.”

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