Tesla and BYD are the world's largest electric-vehicle makers. But BYD has raced far past its U.S. rival, including in all-battery electric vehicles (BEVs).
Tesla is expected to report another big year-over-year earnings decline. Tesla deliveries fell in Q2 but were better than feared. BYD's net income topped Tesla's for the first time in Q1. Sales are still growing but the pace has slowed considerably.
Along with an aging lineup and serious brand issues, the loss of major EV tax credits in the U.S. will be yet another blow. CEO Elon Musk is betting heavily on artificial intelligence, robots and especially robotaxis. Tesla has launched a robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, but with safety monitors and other backup.
Musk's feud with President Donald Trump has the potential to be a big negative.
BYD has launched driver-assist systems across its lineup at no added charge and is pushing into super-fast charging. But BYD also has had to slash prices to boost demand, though booming oversales help.
Tesla stock has been a loser in 2025, but has forged a new base.
BYD stock has been a winner this year. But shares tumbled on the automaker's price cuts.
Tesla Vs. BYD Sales
Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles in Q2, down 13.5% vs. a year earlier but up 14.1% from the seasonally slow Q1. Sales were just below official consensus but better than fears for around 350,000.
Tesla also deployed 9.6 gigawatt-hours of energy storage products in Q2, up slightly vs. 9.4 GWh in Q2 2024 but down sequentially for a second straight quarter.
Meanwhile, BYD sold 1,145,150 EVs in Q2, up 16% vs. a year earlier. Exports and overseas sales, which tend to be higher margin, rose sharply.
Passenger BEV sales shot up 45.8% to 606,953, easily beating Tesla for a third straight quarter. Sales of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) have fallen off 2024 peaks.
Commercial EVs, includes buses, vans, trucks, forklifts and more, are a small but fast-growing segment for BYD.
Tesla should get a pull-forward sales boost in Q3 as U.S. tax credits go away, but otherwise the outlook seems troubled.
Tesla Robotaxi
The invite-only Tesla robotaxi launch began on June 22 in a geofenced, heavily mapped part of Austin, Texas, starting with roughly 11 Model Ys. The robotaxis have a "safety monitor" in the passenger seat along with remote teleoperators as additional backup.
Most rides have gone smoothly, and the service area has expanded. But, even with human supervision, there have been a few incidents, with a safety monitor intervening to prevent a robotaxi from running a railroad crossing as a train neared.
Musk says Tesla will integrate robotaxi software into broader Full Self-Driving, but didn't give a timeline.
Meanwhile, BYD has spent massively on driver-assist and smart-car software, racing to catch industry-leading peers.
On Feb. 10, BYD announced that it was rolling out Level 2 driver-assistance systems across its lineup, with more-expensive BYD EVs and premium brands getting more advanced ADAS, with lidar. BYD's ADAS for now is generally seen as slightly below rival systems from XPeng and Huawei. But BYD recently announced that it will take liability for any accidents with self-parking.
Tesla EV Lineup
The new Tesla Model Y hasn't boosted sales much, with cheap financing already offered to drum up demand.
The Cybertruck, Tesla's first new passenger EV in the past five years, is a bust. Overall sales of the Model S, X and Cybertruck were just 10,394 in Q2.
Tesla recently released updated Model S and X luxury vehicles. But the changes were relatively minor, even for a Tesla refresh, and the newer versions are priced $5,000 higher.
An "affordable" vehicle was supposed to begin production by mid-year, but there's been no evidence of that. The company says it'll resemble the Model Y or 3, with a slew of reports that it'll be a stripped-down MY.
A stripped-down EV could cannibalize Model Y sales, and would face extremely fierce competition in China. In the U.S., a cheaper Model Y may not be out until after the $7,500 tax credit expires.
Otherwise, Tesla's EV pipeline is essentially bare. The Cybercab needs actual self-driving, as well as the "unboxed" manufacturing process that Tesla hasn't figured out yet.
The EV giant has delivered a few dozen Tesla Semi trucks to PepsiCo and a few other customers. The specs and price are unknown, though the price tag reportedly has risen, with key tax credits under threat. Tesla recently said it expected mass production in 2026, but Semi timelines have often slipped by several years.
Join IBD experts as they analyze leading stocks and the market on IBD Live
BYD Expansion
BYD sells BEVs and PHEVs from below $10,000 to $150,000, including its premium Denza, FangChengBao and Yangwang brands, with a steady stream of new or upgraded models.
Improved driver-assist systems and faster charging are expanding to more of BYD's lineup.
Overseas sales are surging, a trend that will likely continue. Export logistics have improved, with several roll-on/roll-off ships coming into service this year and more to come.
A Hungary plant in early 2026 and a Turkey plant later that year will let BYD sidestep EU tariffs.
BYD's Thailand plant, its first full-assembly plant outside of China, is still ramping up. A Brazil factory has started operations. BYD also is building an assembly plant in Indonesia, with knockdown plants eyed for Cambodia and Pakistan.
BYD makes EV buses in California but says it has no plans to enter the U.S. passenger EV market, amid import tariffs and political opposition.
Tesla Vs. BYD Batteries
Tesla traditionally has not mass-produced its own batteries, working with partner Panasonic while buying batteries from South Korea's LG, China's CATL as well as BYD itself.
Tesla is working on 4680 batteries, first touted at the 2020 Battery Day. But the touted benefits have been slow going, while rivals' batteries have improved.
Tesla is a major battery storage provider, but gets its batteries from CATL and BYD. The Tesla Energy business has been booming, with strong margins. But growth has slowed recently. Also, Trump tariffs, threats to IRA tax credits and increased competition all pose near or long-term threats.
BYD is one of the world's largest EV battery makers. Its Blade batteries are a form of lithium ferrous phosphate (LFP). BYD supplies third-party EV makers, including Xiaomi, XPeng's Mona subbrand, Nio's Orvo brand, Toyota as well as Tesla.
Meanwhile, BYD now has unveiled its 1,000-kilowatt superfast charging, providing essentially a full charge in roughly five minutes. BYD's BYD Han L sedan and Tang L SUV are the first models that support charging up to 1,000 kW. BYD is setting up its own network of superfast chargers.
BYD also is a major battery storage provider on its own.
Tesla's Other Businesses
Tesla has its own Supercharger network. Most automakers have gained access to U.S. Superchargers. Those deals, and some related charging subsidies, boost revenue, but also reduce Tesla's charging moat.
Tesla has a solar installation business, but it's struggled for years.
Tesla also is pursuing a humanoid robot, Optimus, with Musk saying he expects it to be a multitrillion-dollar business, with sales beginning in 2026. But Musk timelines often slip considerably. Indeed, Optimus production targets for late 2025 reportedly have been put on hold with a redesign underway following a leadership shakeup.
Many other companies are developing humanoid robots. The use case for humanoid robots in factories or warehouses is still unclear.
BYD's Other Businesses
BYD, notably, makes its own chips. That, along with in-house batteries and other vertical integrations, helps make BYD a low-cost EV maker.
The EV and battery giant also has solar operations.
BYD Co. is largely known for its BYD Auto operations. BYD Electronics, which accounts for an increasingly smaller share of overall revenue, is involved in mostly low-margin businesses such as smartphone components and assembly, including for the Apple iPhone. But margins are improving there as well.
Tesla EV Credits Going Away
The newly passed Trump budget eliminates the $7,500 EV tax credit as of Sept. 30. That should boost Tesla's U.S. sales in Q3 but demand tumble in Q4.
Meanwhile, the legislation also ended highly profitable zero emission credits in the U.S. Not only did that take effect immediately, but automakers don't have to pay fines going back three years.
Tesla still gets ZEV credits in Europe and China, but with EV sales plunging in Europe and falling in China, that revenue also should trend lower.
Tesla Earnings
Tesla earnings and revenue for the second quarter are expected to fall, down 40% and 9%, respectively, but Musk's comments on the earnings call will likely dominate. The still-unseen affordable vehicle, delivery guidance, Tesla Energy margins and more are important.
But the robotaxi will likely take center stage on the call.
In Q1 2025, Tesla earnings dived 40% vs. a year earlier while revenue fell 9% to $19.34 billion, both far below lowered views. Auto gross margins excluding regulatory tax credits were the lowest since 2012.
Tesla would have had an operating loss excluding $595 million in ZEV credit revenue.
Tesla pulled 2025 delivery guidance after the Q1 release, after forecasting some growth on the Q4 2024 call and 20%-30% on the Q3 call.
BYD Earnings
BYD's Q1 earnings per share leapt 98% to 43 cents, the second straight quarter of accelerating growth. Revenue grew 36% to $23.5 billion, below forecasts.
Net income came in $1.26 billion, up 100.4% in local currency terms. That easily topped Tesla's adjusted net income — $934 million — for the first time.
But for the full year, investors see 2025 EPS rising 27%, with estimates coming down amid BYD's price cuts and more-sluggish sales.
Tesla Stock Technicals
Tesla stock is down 18.4% in 2025 as of July 18.
TSLA has forged a new base within a much-larger consolidation. The buy point is 367.71. Shares have retaken their 200-day and 50-day lines. That offers an aggressive entry, but the upcoming earnings raise the stake.
BYD Stock Technicals
BYD stock is up 37.9% in 2025 as of July 3.
Shares hit a record 20.50 on May 23, then sold off on BYD's price war. Shares tumbled far below a buy point and undercut the 50-day line.
Shares need to retake that key level, building the right side of a new base.
BYD, listed in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, trades over the counter in the U.S. Its U.S. shares often have mini-gaps as well as opening-trade mini-spikes or tumbles before settling down.
Tesla Vs. BYD Market Cap
Tesla has a market cap of $1.06 trillion as of July 18. That's far above BYD's $132.1 billion. The overwhelming majority of Tesla's valuation is on self-driving.
Best Growth Stocks To Buy And Watch
Tesla Stock Vs. BYD Stock
BYD sells far more EVs and even BEVs than Tesla. BYD makes a variety of EVs all through the price scale, with new models and big tech moves in recent months.
BYD has entered most of the world outside of the U.S., with overseas sales soaring.
Tesla's EV pipeline is thin. Tesla's EV business faces enormous challenges with a damaged brand and aging lineup. Meanwhile, competitors keep moving forward while U.S. EV and ZEV tax credits are going away.
Tesla stock is down in 2025, but has a base. Self-driving is the big hope for Tesla and TSLA stock.
BYD stock is up solidly in 2025, but needs to recover key levels.
Keep your eyes on the BYD and Tesla rivalry, as well as the pros and cons of Tesla stock vs. BYD stock.
Please follow Ed Carson on X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson and Threads at @edcarson1971 for stock market updates and more.
