The strategically vital Strait of Hormuz stayed largely closed to normal commercial traffic Tuesday as the month-long Iran conflict continued, with only a handful of vessels transiting daily under tight Iranian oversight while the U.S. and allies debated military options to restore freedom of navigation and global oil flows.
Marine traffic data and reports from the Joint Maritime Information Center showed sharply reduced activity through the narrow waterway that normally carries about 20% of the world's traded oil, or roughly 138 vessels per day before hostilities escalated in late February. As of March 29, just six ships crossed — four freighters and two tankers — a fraction of pre-conflict levels, with many vessels loitering on either side or rerouting around Africa to avoid risks.
Iran has effectively controlled passage since early March, declaring the strait closed in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli strikes that began Feb. 28. Tehran has allowed selective transits for "non-hostile" ships after coordination, reportedly charging high fees in some cases and conducting attacks on others. At least 21 vessels have been hit since March 1, though no major attacks were reported in the past 72 hours as of late March.
The disruption has sent ripples through global energy markets and supply chains. Oil prices spiked sharply after the conflict erupted, with Brent crude jumping from around $71 to over $100 per barrel at peaks before partially easing as alternative supplies and stockpiles cushioned some impact. The International Energy Agency and other monitors noted that while the global oil market remains relatively well supplied overall, the constriction has raised costs and forced importers like China, India and parts of Europe and Asia to seek workarounds.
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly addressed the crisis, urging countries dependent on Gulf oil to "go get your own" or help reopen the waterway. In recent statements, Trump suggested Iran allowed a small number of tankers through as a goodwill gesture and warned of potential U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure if the strait is not fully reopened. He has pushed European NATO allies to contribute more to securing the route, criticizing them for not doing enough and stating the U.S. will not shoulder the burden alone indefinitely.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed those calls, emphasizing multinational escorts or U.S.-led operations if needed. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted the market's current resilience but stressed that long-term control of the strait must shift toward freedom of navigation, possibly through U.S. or coalition escorts.
Iranian actions have included selective permissions — such as allowing some Indian-bound LPG tankers or a limited number of Pakistani vessels — while maintaining pressure. Reports indicated Iran may be charging significant tolls or fees for safe passage, described by some as an "Iranian toll booth." A desalination plant on Iran's Qeshm Island in the strait was knocked out of service after earlier strikes, adding to humanitarian and logistical strains in the region.
Shipping giants suspended routine operations through the strait shortly after the conflict intensified, with many vessels diverting around the Cape of Good Hope. War risk insurance premiums soared, making transits prohibitively expensive for most commercial operators. Clusters of loitering ships have grown on both sides of the waterway, reflecting hesitation amid threats of drones, small boats, mines or shore-based missiles.
The conflict's maritime dimension has drawn comparisons to past tensions but represents a more sustained disruption. Prior to February, analysts assessed that Iran possesses the capability to harass shipping using a range of asymmetric tools, while the U.S. Navy has the assets to counter such efforts over time — though at significant cost and risk.
Diplomatic efforts continue in parallel. Pakistan offered to host U.S.-Iran talks, and some reports suggested indirect discussions or temporary reprieves, including one reportedly set to last until April 6. However, Trump described talks with what he called a "new, more reasonable regime" in Iran as serious but warned that failure to reopen the strait would trigger stronger action.
The humanitarian and economic fallout extends beyond oil. Dubai and other Gulf ports have faced challenges importing food and goods, while countries like Australia have monitored potential petrol shortages. India has worked to secure passage for stranded tankers, and the Philippines has sought dialogue with Iran for safe transit of oil shipments.
For the global economy, the strait's importance cannot be overstated. It serves as the primary export route for oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait and Iran itself. Disruptions here historically trigger volatility far beyond the Middle East, affecting everything from gasoline prices to manufacturing costs worldwide.
As of March 31, maritime intelligence indicated transit remains constrained but shows signs of gradual scaling under Iranian-managed conditions. Some "semi-dark" movements — vessels operating with limited tracking — have supplemented visible AIS data. Analysts caution that while numbers have edged into double digits on better days, full normalization appears distant without a broader de-escalation or forceful intervention.
U.S. officials have floated options including naval escorts, multinational coalitions or targeted strikes on Iranian assets. Former Trump administration figures have warned that ending the conflict without securing the strait would be "highly problematic" for energy security.
Iranian state media and officials have framed their control as defensive, accusing the U.S. and Israel of aggression while asserting sovereignty over the waterway. Strikes on commercial vessels, including a reported incident involving a Kuwaiti tanker near Dubai, have kept tensions high.
The situation has also strained alliances. Trump has publicly criticized NATO partners for insufficient support in securing the route, pushing Europe to take greater responsibility amid its own energy concerns.
Looking ahead, the coming days and weeks will be critical. Any expansion of permitted transits could ease immediate pressures, but sustained low traffic risks prolonged economic pain. Military posturing continues, with U.S. forces including Marines and airborne units in the broader region.
For now, the Strait of Hormuz stands as a potent symbol of how geography and geopolitics intersect with global commerce. What was once a routine chokepoint for one-fifth of the world's oil has become a contested flashpoint, forcing governments, energy companies and consumers to confront vulnerabilities in the international supply system.
Shipping firms, insurers and energy traders continue to monitor developments closely. The International Maritime Organization and other bodies have issued advisories urging caution in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
As April begins, the world watches whether diplomacy, deterrence or direct action will restore the free flow of vessels through this narrow but immensely consequential waterway. Until then, reduced transits and elevated risks define the new reality in one of the planet's most critical maritime arteries.
Originally published on ibtimes.com.au
