Shipping will take “weeks” to resume through the Strait of Hormuz as shipowners wait for signs that the US-Iran deal is “material”, the boss of the world’s largest tanker company said.
Jotaro Tamura, the chief executive of Mitsui OSK, said many vessels would wait to restart shipping despite Donald Trump declaring the waterway had already been partially reopened.
The US president said the vital oil route would be “completely open” by Friday, after Washington and Tehran announced a deal to end the Middle East war.
In a Truth Social post, he said that ships loaded with oil are starting to move out of the strait, “going along the Southern ‘Highway,’ which is totally safe, secure, and pristine”.
However, Mr Tamura suggested that, in practice, the resumption of shipping would take much longer.
“What will have to come in place is not just a simple agreement between the relevant countries, but it has to be material and translated into the real situations in the Strait of Hormuz, so that shipping lines can make themselves comfortable to go through,” he told the Financial Times.
“Given the experiences in the last couple of months, I think it’s reasonable to assume that it may take at least a couple of weeks or if not a month.”
Analysts agreed it will be several weeks for tanker movements to ramp up.
Morgan Stanley analysts told clients: “From here, it likely takes several weeks for tanker flow to be restored.”
The tentative agreement to end the war in Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz would be good news for the global economy.
But even as the price of oil dropped on Monday, many questions remained about when and how it would start flowing again through the world's most vital artery for energy shipments.
Before the war, the strait carried a fifth of the world's crude oil. Now, it will take time for hundreds of ships trapped in the Persian Gulf to exit through the narrow strait.
And Gulf oil producers that throttled back production will need time to get the oil moving again. Analysts also say ship captains may take their time to decide if passage is safe and that the threat of attack from Iran has truly receded.
"Operationally, the sector is not rushing back," wrote Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of shipping data and analysis company Lloyd's List, noting that many warn mine clearance and a return to use of the internationally recognized transit lanes "are prerequisites for safe navigation. "
Ships have been trickling out through an Iranian-run vetting lane in the north of the strait, while others have slipped out with lights and location systems turned off under U.S. forces' guidance in a southern passage along the coast of Oman.
Iran had threatened to attack ships using the internationally established mid-strait transit lanes that keep inbound and outbound ships out of each other's way.
Some 500 commercial vessels remain in the Persian Gulf, according to maritime and energy intelligence firm Kpler, and they can't all leave through the narrow strait at once.
Iran has demanded the right to collect money from ships using the strait, and in some cases has already exacted payment to let ships leave. Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social that the deal involved a "toll free opening," but there's been no confirmation from Iran.
