Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso face the task of untangling themselves from West Africa’s main regional bloc, Ecowas, after officially cutting ties this week. The six-month window to reverse their withdrawal expired on Tuesday. With no sign of a return, both sides must work out what the split means for trade, travel and security.
When the three military-led states announced their withdrawal in January, Ecowas said their member benefits would continue until the terms of departure were finalised. The bloc called it an act of “regional solidarity”.
So far, the split has had little visible impact on daily life in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. But many practical issues still need to be resolved.
Malian, Nigerien and Burkinabè officials have been formally dismissed from Ecowas and must leave their posts by 30 September.
Passports and identity cards issued under Ecowas rules remain valid. Free movement and the right to settle still apply. Goods and services continue to move without customs duties. But all of these arrangements are now subject to change.
Three Sahel nations exit West African bloc as regional politics shift
‘Consultations’
In May, a first round of consultations brought together the foreign ministers of the three countries and ECOWAS Commission President Omar Alieu Touray.
Both sides said they had discussed “political, diplomatic, administrative and institutional, legal, security and development” issues.
Cooperation on counter-terrorism was also mentioned.
At the end of the meeting, Ecowas and the AES bloc adopted a joint summary outlining next steps for talks.
"The challenge is to protect the people, trade, and what remains of Ecowas," Malian political analyst Baba Dakono, executive secretary of the Citizen Observatory on Governance and Security (OCGS) in Bamako, told RFI's Service Afrique.
He said the goal is to avoid undoing decades of regional progress, especially on free movement and trade.
“This withdrawal is a political decision. Now the aim is to ensure that its impact isn’t too severe – whether on the population or on trade between states – so that these exchanges can continue without being dragged back to the level of the 1970s, before Ecowas existed,” Dakono said.
He said the process would take time. All three countries are landlocked, and each is dealing with complex political and security challenges. Protecting civilians must be a priority, he added, along with safeguarding what remains of regional cooperation.
Negotiations are supposed to move to a technical level. But since May, no formal meetings have taken place.
“That doesn’t mean nothing is happening,” a senior official from Ecowas told RFI, without providing further details.
Mali’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs is expected to lead talks for the AES. It did not respond to RFI’s requests for comment.
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Internal reforms
Dakono said the withdrawal also puts pressure on Ecowas itself.
“There’s the issue of internal reform, of democratic transitions, and of course security – especially the spread of jihadist threats toward the coastal countries,” he said.
He said these challenges must be addressed alongside the break with the AES.
The AES countries have said that Ecowas nationals will be allowed to enter their shared territory without a visa. But visa-free access in the other direction has yet to be agreed.
Other rules on the right to settle, do business or trade goods across borders also need to be reviewed.
Ecowas funds and implements a number of programmes in the three countries. These too may now be at risk.
Debt repayments are also on the table. All three states have loans from the Ecowas Bank for Investment and Development (EBID), and repayment terms will need to be renegotiated.
Ecowas has said it wants to avoid punishing the people of the Sahel. But it also wants to make clear that quitting the bloc comes with consequences. A deal seen as too soft could reduce the incentive to remain and lead others to follow.
The bloc itself is undergoing internal reform.
So the political, financial and legal disentangling may take years.
Wagner replaced in Mali by Africa Corps, another Russian military group
Growing insecurity
Security in the region has also shifted.
France once played a major role in supporting West African states, but that chapter is now ending. Paris has handed over control of its last military base in the region.
French troops have now left Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Russia is becoming their main strategic partner.
In Mali, Wagner has been replaced by another Russian military group, Africa Corps.
Over the past three years, France has scaled back its military operations in its former colonies, under pressure from local leaders. For years, it had led efforts to fight jihadist groups and armed criminal networks across the Sahel.
But more than a decade of insurgency has displaced millions, destroyed economies and pushed violence further south toward the coast.
The past two months have seen a sharp rise in jihadist attacks – one of the deadliest periods in recent Sahel history.
(with Reuters)
