Good morning. A 12-year-old today will be able to vote in the next general election, unless it’s called early. When I first heard that, I laughed. No wonder there’s so much focus on Labour’s plan to lower the voting age to 16.
But it’s another reform that could have a far greater impact on who votes – and who wins. The government has announced plans to introduce automatic voter registration, or AVR, where people are added to the electoral roll using existing government data, such as tax or passport records.
Right now, voters in the UK have to register themselves. It’s a clunky and outdated system. One study recently the most difficult registration processes in any liberal democracy.
The result is that millions of people fall through the cracks. In 2023, about 8 million UK adults weren’t correctly registered to vote, according to the Electoral Commission.
So what could AVR mean politically? How does it shift power in a significant way, for parties both on the right and the left? I spoke to Luke Tryl, director of the nonprofit organisation More in Common, to find out.
Five big stories
Euro 2025 | In a stunning comeback, England won the Euros on penalties, beating Spain 3-1 in extra time. They were scored by Chloe Kelly, Niamh Charles and Alex Greenwood.
Trade | Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen announced a US/EU trade deal after a meeting on Trump’s golf course in Scotland. The deal involves a 15% baseline tariff for most EU exports to the US.
Gaza | Keir Starmer will recall his cabinet for an emergency meeting on the Gaza crisis, as cross-party MPs warned his talks with Donald Trump provided a critical juncture in helping to resolve the conflict.
Thailand and Cambodia | The leaders of Thailand and Cambodia will meet in Malaysia today for talks to end a border conflict that has led to deadly military clashes and the displacement of 150,000 people.
Health | Demand for weight loss drugs is becoming so “unsustainable” that demand may soon outstrip supply, pharmacists have said, warning supply problems could encourage people to turn to unregulated online sources, despite the risks.
In depth: What’s the argument for AVR?
The core case for automatic voter registration, beyond party politics, is simple: it expands the franchise. It ensures that as many eligible people as possible are actually able to vote.
Tryl pointed out that certain groups are much less likely to be registered, which in turn deepens existing inequalities. Those most likely to be missing are younger people, renters, lower-income families, settled migrants, students and people from minority ethnic backgrounds. The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) recently found a stark 19 percentage-point turnout gap between homeowners and renters. “Those groups end up having a disproportionately lower electoral voice because they’re not registered, and that has a real impact on policy,” he said.
It’s not just about democratic engagement. Who is in the voter pool clearly influences what decisions get made and who is ultimately elected, Tryl explained.
He added that people in poorer communities often face a range of barriers, from time poverty and low awareness to disconnection from the political system and a lack of stable housing. Students, he said, may struggle with dual registration, while some migrants may not realise they’re eligible to vote, or may not feel entitled to take part.
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How will it shift power?
One of the biggest potential political impacts is on boundary changes. Registration rates vary between seats, Tryl said, so some MPs, especially in under-registered urban areas, are effectively representing far more people than others. And that’s because constituency boundaries are based on the number of registered voters, not the number of eligible people. “The difference in some seats can be tens of thousands of people,” he said.
So where does this under-registration happen? “It’s mostly cities; places like Liverpool, Leeds, Bristol, London. MPs in these inner-city areas are representing larger populations, but that’s not reflected in boundary calculations. If legislation goes through and we assume more eligible voters are registered, those people will finally be counted,” he added.
Simply put, Tryl explained, this would mean more representation, and more parliamentary seats in urban and student-heavy areas. But with the total number of seats in parliament fixed at 650, that shift would inevitably come at the expense of rural, more affluent constituencies.
“It’s hard to argue against the principle of automatic registration, but the boundary changes could make rural constituencies, some of which are already geographically large, even bigger,” Tryl said.
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Who is set to benefit?
The most obvious party set to benefit is Labour, which tends to perform better in urban and student-heavy areas. But Tryl tells me that others are also likely to gain from this change.
“The Greens tend to perform better in inner cities and student areas. Some of the inner-city areas that we’re talking about are where the independents have done very well, in parts of Birmingham and potentially in parts of London,” Tryl said. “The big losers are likely to be the Conservatives, who tend to represent more affluent, high-registration areas, and the Liberal Democrats, who’ve made gains in the so-called Blue walls – former Tory, leafy, affluent strongholds.”
Last week, Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana formally launched a new political party, targeting the very inner-city seats likely to gain from automatic voter registration. Polling suggests the party could capture about 10% of the vote, potentially eating into Labour and Green support. Zack Polanski, who is running to be the next Green party leader, has already said he is open to working with any party willing to challenge Reform.
This emerging “Green-left” alliance could be pivotal in shaping the electoral map. On Friday, the group We Deserve Better, backed by the Guardian columnist Owen Jones, launched a campaign calling for a formal electoral pact between Corbyn and Sultana’s party and the Greens.
As for Reform UK, it’s difficult to draw firm conclusions for now, Tryl said. But previous research (pdf) suggests the party’s base is made up largely of older, non‑graduate, culturally conservative voters, many disillusioned with the Conservatives or drawn from the Brexit camp.
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Will this increase voter turnout?
While this reform could have a far bigger effect on the electorate than extending the vote to 16- and 17-year-olds – there are about 1.5 million of them in the UK compared with an estimated eight million eligible voters who aren’t registered – it is unlikely to lead to a dramatic surge in turnout, Tryl said.
Voter turnout in UK general elections used to be consistently high, staying above 70% from 1945 right up until 1997, and even topping 80% in 1950 and 1951. But it had plunged to just 59.4% by the time Tony Blair secured his second term in 2001. Turnout did climb again between 2010 and 2019, yet it has never returned to 70%. In the most recent election in 2024, it slipped again, landing at 59.7%.
“I think that represents a wider democratic disillusionment and disengagement,” Tryl said, but added that there was public support for AVR. “Forty-five per cent said they supported it, just 21% opposed. So it is more popular than allowing 16- and 17-year-olds to vote. But clearly that needs to go and sit alongside wider democratic engagement in a nonpartisan way.”
People need to feel that voting matters. And, Tryl added: “The fundamental challenge is too many people do not think that government is either willing, because they think politicians are only in it for themselves, and the system is rigged, or capable … to take on Britain’s big challenges to bring about the change the country needs. When seven in 10 people say the country is getting worse, and the top word used to describe Britain is “broken,” you’ve got overlapping crises: of trust, of exhaustion, of people feeling like they’ve lost control and agency. That is driving disengagement far more than the specifics of the democratic system.”
The task for every party across the political spectrum in the coming years, Tryl said, is to prove that “government can work and that it can be a force for good”.
What else we’ve been reading
Four years ago, the Conservative MP David Amess was stabbed to death in his surgery by an Islamic State sympathiser. In a searing interview by Anna Moore, his daughter Katie (pictured above) expresses her pain at his violent death, and the government’s refusal to hold an inquiry. Alex Needham, acting head of newsletters
The University of Edinburgh played an “outsized” role in the creation of racist scientific theories and greatly profited from transatlantic slavery. Brilliant reporting by my colleagues of a landmark inquiry into the university’s history. Aamna
Films and TV shows might be eschewing sex scenes, but literary fiction is going in the other direction, with Sally Rooney, Miranda July, Yael van der Wouden and others all writing recent novels that explicitly explore the sex lives of their protagonists. Why? Because sex, writes Lara Feigel, opens “selfhood to otherness with extravagant force”. Alex
Labour MP Chris Hinchliff was suspended for what No 10 called “persistent knobheadery”. His crime? Pushing stronger environmental protections. He told the Guardian this language reflects “a certain set of people … for whom it’s all a personality thing, it’s all a game”. Aamna
In a piece of great tenderness and beauty, Poppy Noor writes about her son Mo Ibrahim Lingwood-Noor, who died in childbirth, and how she moved through the aftermath of this devastating event. Alex
Sport
Cricket | India drew in the fourth test against England after Ravindra Jadeja (pictured above) and Washington Sundar both completed centuries. England lead the series 2-1.
Cycling | Tadej Pogacar has sealed his fourth Tour de France victory in Paris after the final stage from Mantes-la-Ville to the Champs Élysées. The 26-year-old beat his closest rival, Jonas Vingegaard, by almost four and half minute
Formula One | Oscar Piastri comfortably won the Belgium Grand Prix as rain lashed down on to the track. The 24-year-old Australian saw off his McLaren teammate Lando Norris.
The front pages
England’s Euro victory dominates the front pages – with the Guardian labelling them “Queens of Europe”. The Mirror has “LionYESses”, while the i also goes with “Queens of Europe!” The Sun focuses on goalie Hannah Hampton with “The Hann of God”.
Elsewhere, the Times has “Starmer to press Trump on Gaza”. The Financial Times reports “Brussels accepts 15% US tariffs to fix ‘unfair’ trade relations, says Trump”, and the Telegraph says “Trump: Wind power is a ‘con-job’”. Finally, the Mail focuses on protests in Epping, with “Now shut migrant protest hotel”.
Today in Focus
The hunt for the next Dalai Lama
The Guardian’s south Asia correspondent, Hannah Ellis-Petersen, and the Tibet activist Lhadon Tethong discuss the battle between Buddhist monks and the Chinese state over the successor to the Dalai Lama (pictured above).
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Despite not making the Belgium squad, footballer Yana Daniëls (pictured above) is making her own contribution to Euro 2025, handcrafting boxes for every player-of-the-match trophy in a converted Wirral garage, using locally sourced wood from Arrowe Park.
After suffering from a career-threatening injury a decade ago, Daniëls was forced to plan ahead. She said, ‘When you get older you start to realise: ‘How long will I play on for? Will I need to find a normal job?’
Daniëls’ interest in carpentry developed through DIY requests from fellow teammates for the Liverpool changing rooms, including a table and a personalised shoe rack.
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
