Australian motorists are unlikely to get the benefits from any deal to end the Iran war because of the looming end of the fuel tax cut.
US President Donald Trump has been touting an imminent peace deal with Iran, although fighting in the Middle East has continued and officials in Tehran have been more circumspect.
Mr Trump's announcement that the agreement to end the war was "just about done" sent global oil prices plunging, but analysts said even if such a deal were reached, the impact on Australian petrol and diesel prices would be minimal.
While fuel prices spiked in the immediate aftermath of American and Israeli strikes on Iran, in most states and territories they are now lower than before the war, mainly because of a halving of the fuel excise.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Energy Minister Chris Bowen have been setting expectations the tax cut will likely wind up from July, but sources said the measure was under almost weekly review.
If an end to the war was announced in the next few weeks, oil prices would likely trend down gradually, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver told AAP.
"If oil prices stay where they are now and the fuel tax cuts are reversed, then you'd be adding at least 32 cents a litre to petrol prices," he said.
"But we'll probably still end up a little bit above where we were before the war, because the oil price will take a while to get back to normal levels, and there'll still be a bit of a risk premium priced in (because of) worries that it will flare up again."
Mr Trump repeatedly said he was close to ending the war since the conflict began in February, but is so far yet to achieve a permanent ceasefire.
Iran has recently announced a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which in peacetime carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil supplies.
NRMA spokesman Peter Khoury treated the president's comments sceptically, saying they meant nothing until peace was signed, sealed and delivered.
"Until the peace deal is signed, and the strait is reopened, and we start to see tanker traffic flowing, it's unlikely to mean much to the Australian motorist," Mr Khoury told AAP.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Thursday indicated the government was unlikely to extend the excise cut because of its $3 billion cost but said the measure was under constant review.
