Good morning. Paramilitary-style troops deployed on the streets of major cities fatally shooting citizens; vessels seized in international waters; a foreign head of state captured; cherished cultural institutions dismantled; a judiciary installed and seemingly in thrall to the regime; and the mooted breaching of presidential term limits. It sounds like the background to a spy thriller about a rogue state.
Yet some argue that the Trump administration in the US has done all of these things – and more – in the space of just a year in office. The question is whether these developments are merely episodic flashes of the chaos we have come to associate with Donald Trump, or signs of a deeper, longer-term transformation in the character of American power.
For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Peter Trubowitz, professor of international relations and director of the Phelan United States Centre at the London School of Economics and associate fellow at Chatham House, to ask whether the US is genuinely descending into something that can be described as a rogue state – with failing institutions at home and a might-is-right policy abroad that threatens foes and allies alike. Before that, the news headlines.
Five big stories
UK politics | Thirty-four school contemporaries of Nigel Farage have now come forward to claim they saw him behave in a racist or antisemitic manner, raising fresh questions over the Reform leader’s evolving denials.
Minneapolis | The FBI has taken full control of the investigation into the fatal shooting of Renee Nicole Good by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency officer in Minneapolis.
Health | Scientists say they have “rejuvenated” human eggs for the first time in an advance that they predict could revolutionise IVF success rates for older women.
Venezuela | The US is receiving full cooperation from Venezuela’s regime and will control the country and its vast oil reserves for years, Donald Trump has claimed.
Greenland | Peter Mandelson has accused European leaders including Keir Starmer of a “histrionic” reaction to Donald Trump’s plan to take over Greenland, arguing that without “hard power and hard cash” they will continue to slide into unimportance in the “age of Trump”.
In depth: ‘Trump’s not bothering to justify his actions legally – for him, this is about power’
Taking the Trump administration’s decisions together, the issue many commentators are now grappling with is not simply whether individual actions by the US are controversial – or even legal – but whether they point to a broader erosion of democratic norms. Does the country’s domestic and international posture now look less like that of a “respectable western democracy”, and more like something that would be labelled rogue or dysfunctional were it not a nuclear-armed superpower with unparalleled global influence?
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Is this a permanent shift?
Peter Trubowitz is cautious about declaring that a settled doctrine is already in place. “I don’t think there is one clear, overarching grand strategy informing the administration’s foreign policy,” he tells me, describing competing agendas jostling for control within Trump’s orbit.
One strand, he says, is a renewed focus on asserting US dominance in the western hemisphere – something that helps explain the dramatic intervention in Venezuela. But it sits alongside other, sometimes contradictory, impulses: Wall Street figures seeking to reshape the global order through tariffs and the dollar, and powerful tech interests pushing for a world of weakened states and open borders for capital. That is leaving US policy volatile rather than coherent.
Trump himself, Trubowitz argues, has yet to commit fully to any one of these paths. “I don’t think he’s planted his flag permanently in one camp or the other,” he says, adding that for now the administration’s emphasis appears firmly regional. Whether that hardens into a coherent worldview remains, in his words, “TBD”.
The timing of the Venezuela operation also mattered. It came at a politically convenient moment for Trump, pushing coverage of the Epstein files off the front pages – even if just 1% of those documents have been released so far. Domestically, the administration has also faced accusations of “vindictive” and “cruel” decision-making after moves to halt more than $10bn in childcare and family assistance funding.
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Saying the quiet part out loud
In an opinion piece for us earlier this week, Jan-Werner Müller argued that the Trump doctrine had exposed the US as a mafia state. And for those old enough to remember decades of American military and economic interventions, there is an obvious counter-argument: hasn’t Washington always thrown its weight around – just with nicer rhetoric?
Trubowitz largely agrees with that premise, with one important caveat. What marks this moment out is not simply what the administration is doing, but how nakedly it is doing it.
“Trump’s not even bothering to try to justify them legally,” he says. “For him, this is about power.”
Where previous administrations wrapped interventions in the language of democracy or security – the Bush administration’s case for Iraq, as cynical as it might have been, being the clearest example – Trump is far more explicit. “He knows America has the power and the leverage to get Venezuela’s resources, full stop,” Trubowitz says. “That’s what Trumpism is about.”
That bluntness, he argues, is shocking not because it is unprecedented, but because it strips away the diplomatic fictions that once allowed allies to look the other way.
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A post-Trump future
Trump will not be in power for ever – even if term limits were abolished, one assumes that nature will eventually take its course – but Trubowitz warns against assuming that US institutions will simply “snap back” once he is gone. Some of the damage, he argues, is likely to be permanent.
The gutting of USAID is one example he cites of an institution that may not recover, even if Democrats regain control of Congress or the White House in future elections and increase spending on foreign aid. More broadly, he sees Trump pursuing at home what he practises abroad: the leveraging of power to reshape the system in his favour.
(It is, incidentally, well worth having a dig into Charlotte Higgins’s Long read from yesterday, where she looked at Trump’s assault on the Smithsonian as part of his aim to kill off so-called “woke” by tackling art institutions.)
“What Trump is really pursuing is the idea of the unitary executive,” Trubowitz says – the belief that the president should enjoy unconstrained authority over domestic and foreign policy alike. The idea itself is not new, having been explored during the Reagan era, but the political conditions now are radically different.
The US is far more polarised, making it easier for a president to force party discipline and neutralise internal dissent. Trump, Trubowitz argues, is both a product of that polarisation and an accelerant of it.
The consequences extend well beyond the state. Universities, cultural institutions and the corporate US have all shown a willingness to bend the knee, he says – while much of big tech has embraced an agenda of deregulation and a weaker central state. In that context, the spectacle of even prominent Republicans such as Marjorie Taylor Greene briefly standing up to Trump – and then retreating – has only underlined how narrow the space for resistance has become.
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How could the world deal with a rogue US state?
I wrote a First Edition featuring our diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour earlier this week, discussing why European leaders are so reluctant to go on record with criticism of Trump’s actions – essentially for fear it will jeopardise US support over Ukraine.
That caution looks increasingly understandable. US participation in international institutions is no longer a given. In a presidential memorandum issued this week, Trump withdrew from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, along with 65 other organisations, agencies and commissions, calling them “contrary to the interests” of his country – a move that cements Washington’s isolation from global efforts to tackle accelerating climate breakdown.
Trubowitz, who was at the University of Texas in Austin before joining the LSE in 2013, tells me he has always taught international and domestic policy because to him the two are closely intertwined: “Donald Trump has made that much clearer than previous presidents.”
The rest of the world, he suggests, may now have to reckon with a US whose behaviour abroad increasingly mirrors the political logic reshaping it at home.
What else we’ve been reading
As Israeli bombs continued to annihilate her Gaza homeland, Taqwa Ahmed al-Wawi writes powerfully of her family’s quiet act of rebellion: they planted a garden amid death and destruction. Aamna
Torvajanica in Italy had long been a place of sanctuary for the LGBTQ+ community, and now is home to 150 trans women with a history of sex work. Naomi Accardi profiles the place and the people for the Face. Martin
I’m really enjoying the Guardian’s series, My favourite family photo. Anita Chaudhuri’s story is particularly poignant, detailing her journey from resisting her father’s photo slideshows to eventually exploring vintage projectors herself. Aamna
The Guardian’s Hope appeal has so far raised more than £850,000 thanks to generous readers’ continuing support, and Patrick Butler explains how it is aiming to raise £1m for grassroots organisations tackling extremism and hatred by the time it closes in a few days. You can donate here. Martin
Why does Donald Trump want Venezuela’s oil? I thought this video explainer by Jillian Ambrose offered an incisive perspective on this turbulent week. Aamna
Sport
Cricket | Ben Stokes has backed Brendon McCullum’s continuation as head coach despite England’s 4-1 Ashes thrashing in Australia. McCullum has accepted the need for improvement but said he will push back if he is told what to do.
Football | Arsenal failed to take advantage of Manchester City’s Wednesday slip against Brighton as Liverpool held the league leaders to a draw.
Figure skating| Two-time defending champion Amber Glenn set the record for a women’s short program at the US Figure Skating Championships on Wednesday night, giving her a narrow lead over world champion Alysa Liu heading into the free skate.
Something for the weekend
Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read, play and listen to right now
TV
Girl Taken | ★★★★☆
Though the summary of Girl Taken is a grim tale of a kidnapped teenage girl’s survival against her abductor, the six-part series is much more. Starring Alfie Allen, it focuses on the neglected, quieter and less voyeuristic emotional toll of abduction – the pain of being ripped from your life and the lives of those who love you. The unhurried pace builds the girl’s world, making the subsequent loss keenly felt when she is taken by one man’s will. Lucy Mangan
Music
The Cribs: Selling a Vibe review | ★★★★☆
The Cribs’ Selling a Vibe exudes confidence. Fans will recognise the signature distorted guitars and sharp, punchy songs. Produced by Patrick Wimberly, it’s more streamlined than Night Network, with a subtle 80s pop influence on tracks such as A Point Too Hard to Make and Rose Mist, but it’s not a radical shift for the band. Strikingly, the songs are uniformly powerful and well written, achieving a perfect balance: nothing feels overworked, yet the melodies soar and the choruses hit faultlessly. Alexis Petridis
Film
Hamnet | ★★★★★
Chloé Zhao’s film, initially slow, follows Agnes (Jessie Buckley), whose endless wandering in the forest has earned her a witch-like reputation. Buckley is beguiling, giving every expression piercing significance. Her beauty captivates William Shakespeare (Paul Mescal), a would-be poet resentful of joining his abusive father’s glove business; Mescal plays him with intelligent force. Łukasz Żal’s cinematography is pellucid, and Max Richter’s score is pervasive. It is a film that moves because of its absorbing performances. Peter Bradshaw
Theatre
Woman in Mind | ★★★☆
Sheridan Smith excels as Susan, a disconsolate housewife, in this 40th-anniversary revival of Alan Ayckbourn’s 1985 play. Smith brings whimsical daintiness and vulnerability to Susan, a darkly comic take on the straitjacketed 1950s housewife. While the drama’s shift from domestic drudgery to surreal melodrama and supernatural farce lessens the emotional connection, the play remains a potent critique of married life’s emptiness. Its unsettling journey suggests that fantasy offers no escape, but merely a different version of the same nightmare. Arifa Akbar
The front pages
“‘Go back home’: now 34 ex-pupils accuse Farage of racist behaviour” is top story at the Guardian. The Mirror splashes with “Where’s Wally?”, in reference to Nigel Farage’s trips abroad. The Telegraph runs “Reeves to climb down on pub tax” and the Mail says “Pub U-turn’s too little too late”. The Times leads on “Top defence chief warns of need for extra £28bn” and the i paper has “Putin’s shadow fleet in UK waters as ministers pledge to use ‘hard power’”. The FT splashes on “Push to reset EU ties excludes financial services as City shuns closer alignment”. “Send writ like Beckham” is how the Sun covers the latest on Brooklyn Beckham and his parents, David and Victoria.
Today in Focus
Elon Musk’s pervert chatbot
The Guardian’s global technology editor, Dan Milmo, talks to Helen Pidd about the latest scandal surrounding Grok and whether Elon Musk, its ultimate owner, is unwilling or unable to stop it.
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Supermarkets could help British consumers to move away from their reliance on mainly imported seafood – the “big five” of cod, haddock, tuna, salmon and prawns – to more sustainable locally caught fish such as sardines and anchovies, researchers say.
A study by the University of East Anglia, which confirmed previous research showing consumers do not eat the recommended amount of fish, suggests the UK could improve national health and bolster local economies by embracing its own rich populations of nutritious small fish.
Despite an abundance of fish in British waters, more than 80% of seafood eaten in the UK is imported. Sales in supermarkets, where most people buy their seafood, are heavily concentrated on the “big five”, but if retailers provided more locally sourced options it could decrease consumers’ reliance on imported species, the study suggests.
Lead researcher Dr Silvia Ferrini said: “Our research shows that curiosity is strong, with 40% of UK consumers saying they would be willing to try these lesser‑known species – especially if they are fresh, locally sourced and reasonably priced.”
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