Donald Trump has hit a historic second-term low with independent voters, as a bombshell YouGov poll reveals his net approval has plummeted to negative 40 percentage points.
The survey, conducted between 23–26 January 2026, shows that a staggering 67% of independents now disapprove of the President's performance, compared to just 27% who approve. This sharp decline from a net negative 31 just one week ago signals a burgeoning crisis for the Republican Party ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
While Trump maintains a robust 72-point net approval among his core Republican base, his 'unprecedented' alienation of the middle ground, driven largely by high-profile ICE fatalities in Minnesota and persistent grocery inflation, threatens the GOP's narrow grip on both the House and Senate.
For a president already gearing up for the 2026 midterm battle, the numbers represent a flashing warning light. Independents routinely decide elections in swing states and marginal districts, and their accelerating rejection of Trump suggests mounting political risk. While his Republican base remains solid, the data points to a presidency increasingly boxed in by polarisation, economic unease and backlash over federal enforcement actions.
Experts warn that maintaining Republican majorities in Congress may be increasingly difficult if independents continue to reject his policies.
Independent Support Plunges to All-Time Low
The survey, conducted among 1,684 respondents with a 3.3-point margin of error, indicates a dramatic shift in voter sentiment. Last week, Trump's net approval among independents was negative 31 points, while earlier this month it stood at negative 28 points.
Although pollsters cautioned that weekly variations can influence results, the trend still suggests a massive decline in independent support.
Among Republicans, Trump retains strong backing, with 85% approving and just 13%, translating to a positive 72 percentage-point net approval. Democrats, by contrast, show near-universal disapproval, with a net rating of negative 86 points, reinforcing the partisan divide. Analysts note that independents often act as swing voters in midterm elections, making this demographic particularly important for GOP hopes.
What the Poll Supports
The poll coincides with ongoing concerns about the US economy and the administration's controversial immigration policies. Critics argue that despite Trump's claims of economic growth and lower inflation, many Americans still feel the impact of rising grocery and utility costs.
| Voter Group | Approve | Disapprove | Net Rating |
| Republicans | 85% | 13% | +72 |
| Independents | 27% | 67% | -40 |
| Democrats | 7% | 93% | -86 |
Independent voters may be particularly sensitive to these financial pressures, as they are less likely to maintain automatic loyalty to a single party.
Trump has repeatedly defended his economic record, emphasising tax cuts and border enforcement as successes that could be reversed under Democratic control. He claims that Republican stewardship is essential for continued growth and national security.
Senior GOP strategists are reportedly 'alarmed' by the -40 figure, as it mirrors the polling lows that preceded major House losses in previous midterm cycles. If independents continue to view the administration's policies—particularly on immigration and foreign policy (Greenland)—as extreme, the 'GOP majority in Congress' may be a short-lived reality.
ICE Crackdown on Illegal Immigrants Plays a Massive Role
The approval drop also comes following deadly federal immigration enforcement, particularly in Minnesota. Recent ICE operations have resulted in the deaths of two US citizens, sparking controversy even among some Trump supporters. The YouGov poll partially overlapped with the timing of the most recent shooting, which took place on Saturday, 25 January.
Political analysts suggest that incidents like these may be influencing independent voter attitudes, contributing to the historic decline in approval.
As the President prepares for a flurry of domestic campaign stops, his ability to bridge this gap will be the defining theme of the year. Trump has dismissed the latest YouGov findings as 'rigged,' yet the technical data shows his honesty and likability scores have also trended downward. With 49% of the country now strongly disapproving of his job performance, the 2026 midterms are shaping up to be a referendum on whether the 'Trump Mandate' has lost its momentum.
Implications for the 2026 Midterms
The historic drop in net approval among independents could have far-reaching consequences for the Republican Party as it seeks to maintain control of Congress in November 2026. Experts suggest that independent voters, who often determine outcomes in swing districts, may be a decisive factor in shaping the midterm results.
Trump's ability to energise Republican voters while mitigating losses among moderates will be important.
Senior GOP strategists have already set plans for frequent domestic appearances and targeted campaigning in key states, planning to promote grassroots mobilisation. For Trump, reversing negative perceptions among independents may be as critical as maintaining enthusiasm among the party base.
Political analysts will be watching future polls to see whether this drop is temporary or a sign that Trump is losing long-term support. The next few months will be crucial, as his campaign strategy is likely to depend on how independent voters react to Trump's handling of issues such as the economy and immigration.
For now, the YouGov numbers represent a warning rather than a final judgment. But if independent voters continue to harden against Trump, the path to retaining congressional power in 2026 becomes significantly narrower.
The next wave of polling will show whether this drop is a momentary backlash or the early sign of a deeper political shift.
