The sudden retreat of Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg and Tom Steyer ahead of Super Tuesday has left many Californians who voted early grappling with loss – and regret.
“I was heartbroken,” said Andrea McNew, 44, who had been volunteering for the Buttigieg campaign in San Diego, California. “But I know it’s a tough road to the presidency,” she added. “So we’re working through it”.
McNew was one among an estimated 4 million Californians who mailed in their ballots before the South Carolina results were reported. Based on voting data and polling, about 800,000 Californians likely voted for Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Steyer, according to Paul Mitchell, whose campaign research firm, Political Data Inc, tracks ballots as they are returned. Although many Super Tuesday states allow early voting, California, which has the most delegates to award, has most enthusiastically encouraged it.
“Only 60% of the electorate is still left to cast ballots,” said Mitchell, who expects about 10 million Californians to vote in the Democratic primary. Although the departure of moderates Klobuchar and Buttigieg is broadly expected to boost Joe Biden, it’s unclear how much of an impact the shakeup will have in California, where so many people have already voted, Mitchell said.
In Michigan and Wisconsin, voters have some provisions to request a “do over” and vote for another candidate, but Californians have no such option. Those who have filled out a mail-in ballot but have yet to slip it into a post box can request a fresh ballot at polling locations on election day.
“Zombie votes”, as Mitchell calls them, for a candidate who has dropped out could come back into play when the Democratic party chooses a presidential nominee. If Buttigieg or Klobuchar win any delegates in California, they could encourage some of those delegates to vote for Biden, giving the former vice-president a slight edge.
“That at least gives me some solace,” said Preston Brock, 28, who voted by mail last week for Buttigieg. The news that Buttigieg had dropped out was a disappointment to Brock and his friend Farouq Ghazzawi, 27, who had talked about how, after they both graduated from law school in Santa Clara, California, they would love to work for a Buttigieg administration.
As soon as he heard, Brock said he texted Ghazzawi a single word. “Damn”. And Ghazzawi “knew exactly what I was talking about”.
“If I had known before I cast my ballot that Pete would have pulled out, I may have voted differently,” Brock said. Buttigieg’s military service and the fact that he was the first openly gay candidate to run for president were especially compelling to Brock, who is a former marine himself. “I made the decision to vote early, because at the end of the day I just wanted to vote for the person I felt the most confident in,” he said.
Ghazzawi, who is planning to vote in person Tuesday, said he momentarily considered casting a ballot for Buttigieg regardless. “But then I was like, no that’s not rational.” He and his family have decided to back Joe Biden instead.
In future elections, voters who’ve “been burned this year may vote closer to the election”, said Mindy Romero, who heads the California Civic Engagement Project at the University of Southern California. But this year’s primary is a uniquely close, crowded race. In 2008 – the last time California voted on Super Tuesday – Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were the only two viable candidates. In 2016, by the time Californians voted in June, the field of candidates had narrowed down to Clinton and Bernie Sanders.
The disappointment of early voters who pinned their hopes on short-lived candidates “is the risk you run when you have an early primary”, said Kim Alexander, the president of the nonpartisan California Voter Foundation. “It’s unfortunate, but I wouldn’t say we had any wasted votes,” she said. “The votes will reflect on how candidates fare among a diverse democratic electorate – and could inform how the eventual presidential candidate will choose a vice-president,” Alexander said.
If voters still feel a bit frustrated, “I encourage them to find somebody who is not registered to vote, and would support their second choice candidate, and help them vote,” Alexander said. “There are millions of Californians who are not registered, and this is an incentive for people to go and find new voters.”
