The Green Party is set to sweep east London at the next general election winning 21 seats in the capital, according to a new poll.
The mega-survey by Electoral Calculus showed Zack Polanki’s party also making inroads in central London.
If correct, it would see outgoing Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, MP for Holborn and St Pancras, and Tottenham MP David Lammy, the current Justice Secretary, lose their seats.
The poll is an MRP survey which is based on large-scale polling of sections of society and extrapolating to get constituency level results.
It showed the Greens winning in Barking, East Ham, Leyton and Wanstead, Walthamstow, Stratford and Bow, Islington South and Finsbury, Queen’s Park and Maida Vale, Vauxhall and Camberwell Green, Hackney South and Shoreditch, Hackney North and Stoke Newington, Bethnal Green and Stepney, as well as Poplar and Limehouse.
Mr Polanski’s party would also gain West Ham and Becton, Ilford South, Peckham, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Lewisham North, Brent East, as well as Clapham and Brixton Hill.
Wes Streeting, who resigned as Health Secretary in Sir Keir’s government, would hold on in Ilford North.
Some of the predictions may appear surprising, such as the Greens winning in Barking.
However, the Greens won control of a string of councils at the May local elections.
Overall the results across London would be a major blow to Labour which would be left with just 27 MPs in the capital, the Green 21, Conservatives 19 and Liberal Democrats six including Wimbledon.
Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, told The Standard: "In Labour's darkest hours, London was a key stronghold. But even with a new Burnham bounce, the capital is an electoral battleground.
"The Greens are making strong progress in eastern central London, and the other parties do well in outer London, but Labour is still the largest party.”
Reform would gain Dagenham and Rainham but lose Romford, currently held by Andrew Rosindell who defected from the Tories.
The Conservatives would win back Cities of London and Westminster, Kensington and Bayswater, as well as Chelsea and Fulham.
Jeremy Corbyn would retain his Islington North seat.
Such an outcome across the capital would be a disaster for Labour given that it won 59 seats at the general election in July 2024.
But the poll also appeared to signal more woes for Nigel Farage who is facing mockery after resigning as an MP, triggering a by-election in Clacton, amid a series of claims over his financial affairs.
It suggested that Reform UK has now dropped significantly in popularity and is now no longer headed to be the biggest party after the next election, expected in 2029.
With possible early signs of a “Burnham bounce”, Labour is set to win 217 seats, the Conservatives 151 and Reform 127.
Andy Burnham is due to take over as Prime Minister on July 20, unless there is a surprise challenger for the Labour leadership.
Labour MPs are pinning their hopes on him reviving their party’s fortunes.
However, there are already concerns that he may adopt an “anti-London” stance, possibly imposing a new property tax which could land the capital with an extra £7.5 billion bill.
Mr Burnham has also pledged the “biggest devolution of power in modern times” which could see tens of thousands of jobs moved out of Whitehall to the regions.
However, some of his reforms, including cheaper public transport fares, could benefit London given that it is a deeply divided city, with deprived areas very close to districts of huge wealth.
Niamh Mercer Danher, associate director at communications agency PLMR who commissioned the poll, said: “At a time when Londoners face huge pressures on housing, transport and the cost of living, these figures suggest voters are looking for delivery rather than disruption.
“If Labour wants to build on this momentum, Andy Burnham will need to prove that the principles of pragmatism, delivery and local leadership which have defined "Manchesterism" can become a blueprint for national renewal.”
* Find Out Now polled 5,545 adults in Britain online between 23-30 June 2026 for the Electoral Calculus MRP survey on behalf of communications agency PLMR.
