Before you cancel YouTube TV because Disney's beloved channels are missing, there is a slight possiblity that ABC and YouTube could return. At least, that's what Google is proposing.
- YouTube says it's "ready" to make a deal to return Disney's networks while accusing the company of distorting the facts and demanding unfairly high fees
- There's pessimism about a deal being reached, based on internal Disney memos. "YouTube TV continues to insist on receiving preferential terms that are below market and has made few concessions," reads the memo.
- A new survey shows that 24% of YouTube TV customers have already canceled or plan to soon (but YouTube disputes these findings)
- Monday Night Football audience dropped 21.4% this week compared to the week prior
- ESPN's own Pat McAfee has railed against the Disney vs YouTube war.
YouTube publicly shared an email it had sent to Disney leadership regarding the lack of Disney channels, most notably ABC and ESPN, on Google's YouTube TV cable streaming service. This response is in reference to Disney's proposal to restore ABC to YouTube TV subscribers for 24 hours during the election window.
YouTube would like to restore ABC and ESPN while the two companies negotiate, saying, "We propose immediately restoring the Disney channels that our customers watch: ABC and the ESPN networks, while we continue to negotiate. Those are the channels that people want."
"We agree that the right priority here is to give customers what they want," said YouTube in the email. It's a nice way to start an email, but then Google managed to throw a little dig in there: "As you know from the many content disputes you’ve been part of, customers don’t want companies fighting and content blackouts."
We propose immediately restoring the Disney channels that our customers watch: ABC and the ESPN networks, while we continue to negotiate. Those are the channels that people want.
YouTube
"If you agree with our proposal and give us approval, we can get our operational teams together and get these channels live in hours. Let us know how you’d like to proceed," YouTuve said in the email.
Should Disney agree, it appears that subscribers won't have to wait long to regain access to the two massive channels. But this doesn't seem likely right now.
Since then, internal Disney memos leaked, further showing pessimism about the likelihood of a deal being reached: "YouTube TV continues to insist on receiving preferential terms that are below market and has made few concessions," reads the memo.
What is YouTube doing?
While this seems like an olive branch for Disney and a ray of hope for YouTube TV subscribers on the surface, YouTube is clearly using this post as a negotiation tactic. If Disney doesn't agree to bring back ABC and ESPN, it looks like the company withholding channels from YouTube TV subscribers.
Everything about this memo screams a tactic to gain leverage. If Disney rejects YouTube's proposal, it will be a win for YouTube TV in the court of public opinion. If Disney accepts, it's a win for YouTube, too, as it comes off as the company fighting for its customers to get them what they want.
Ultimately, these are two giant companies competing for substantial sums of money, leaving consumers caught in the middle. Any move, even one that benefits consumers, is likely made as a play for leverage in the ongoing negotiations. Neither company wants to give in — Google wants to pay less for Disney channels, and Disney wants more money for its offerings.
In the meantime, YouTube TV is offering $10 off for 6 months as Disney and ESPN remain dark — at least for certain subscribers. And if you're fed up with the whole thing, we have a list of the best YouTube TV alternatives.
Analysis: This dispute hurts YouTube, Disney and viewers
As this YouTube TV blackout rumbles on, there are no winners. Not only are viewers subscribed to the live TV streaming service losing access to popular channels, but the fallout is going to start impacting YouTube and Disney.
This is a greedy power move by Disney and nothing else. They want you to pay them directly rather than collect from YTTV and others. They're working towards a monopoly so they can freely raise prices further.
Paul Hansen, Tom's Guide reader
For YouTube, if the channels don't return in the foreseeable future, they could start to bleed subscribers as viewers switch to competing services that offer Disney's stable of channels. Sports fans in particular aren't going to be happy to lose access to their teams' games in the long term. So it's certainly in YouTube's best interest to find a way to strike a deal as soon as possible.
However, Disney is also already feeling the heat as this dispute continues, and the data confirms it. ABC Sports reports that Monday Night Football saw a drop in viewers of more than 21% compared to the same game week last season. An average audience of 16.2 million tuned in to watch the Cardinals beat the Cowboys on Monday, but Week 9 in 2024 saw an average of 20.6 million viewers watching the Chiefs beat the Bucs in overtime.
We can't say definitively that this drop in viewership was solely down to YouTube TV being unable to offer access to channels broadcasting the game (and perhaps the Swift-Kelce factor played a part in last year's Week 9 MNF having higher ratings), but it's certainly very plausiable that these viewing figures are our first indication that the ongoing blackout is starting to bite.
Disney won't be pleased to see a drop in viewership across ESPN and ABC, and football fans who subscribe to YouTube TV likely had to scramble to find alternative means to watch the game. It's a no-win situation. Perhaps this drop in viewership will focus minds and get the parties back to the table to thrash out a new deal that sees ABC, ESPN, and more return to YouTube TV.
Survey says subscribers are already canceling
As we enter the second week of the Disney blackout on YouTube TV, it’s been suggested that the service is already feeling the effect. According to research firm Drive Research (reported by Variety), 24% of surveyed YouTube TV subscribers say they have already canceled their subscription or plan to in the near future. Around 1,100 U.S. customers were surveyed.
Interestingly, this dispute could actually translate to more subscribers for Disney. In the same survey, 30% of respondents claimed they have subscribed to or plan to subscribe directly to EPSN Unlimited or Hulu + Live TV to ensure they can continue to access Disney’s content.
The situation could get worse for YouTube, with 82% of those surveyed saying they are “likely” to cancel their subscription if the blackout proves to be long-term or perhaps even permanent. Of course, as the saying goes, talk is cheap, so these figures shouldn’t be taken as confirmed statistics.
Furthermore, a YouTube spokesperson offered a comment on the survey results to Variety, saying, "We’re not familiar with this firm and can’t speak to their credibility or methodology. What we can say is that while subscriber churn is always regrettable, it’s been manageable and does not align with the findings of this survey.” So, these findings are certainly not confirmed.
Either way, as the blackout rumbles on, it’s clear that it’s in everybody’s best interests to reach a swift resolution, so let’s hope the next update we can report on the ongoing situation is that an agreement has been struck and that Disney channels will be returned to YouTube TV.
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