As candidates officially kickoff their campaigns to succeed Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga as president of the Liberal Democratic Party, the race is shaping up to be a neck-and-neck heat between the three leading contenders.
According to a Yomiuri Shimbun poll of LDP Diet members, support was closely split as of Thursday between former LDP Policy Research Council Chairperson Fumio Kishida, administrative and regulatory reform minister Taro Kono, and former Internal Affairs and Communications Minister Sanae Takaichi.
But the situation continues to evolve with LDP Executive Acting Secretary General Seiko Noda's entry into the race and about a third of LDP lawmakers still undecided on who they will back.
In polling begun on Sept. 6, The Yomiuri Shimbun confirmed the stance of 363, or 95%, of the 383 LDP Diet members, excluding the lower house speaker and upper house president.
As of Thursday, Kishida and Kono had both garnered about a 20% share of party lawmakers' support, while Takaichi was backed by about 15%. Noda, who declared her candidacy on the day, had about 10 lawmakers in her corner.
Kishida, 64, has nearly unanimous support from his own 46-member Kishida faction. He has also expanded his support base to include veteran lawmakers and upper house members in the 96-member Hosoda faction and the 53-member Aso faction.
But over 30% of the Aso camp has pledged support for Kono, 58, a fellow faction member. Kono also has the support of mid-ranking and younger lawmakers in the 47-member Nikai faction and 17-member Ishiba faction, as well as most members of a group of factionless House of Representatives lawmakers close to Suga.
Takaichi, 60, has been backed by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, entailing the support of about 40% of lawmakers in the Hosoda faction, over which Abe still retains sway. Takaichi is also supported by a number of conservative lawmakers unaffiliated with factions.
Yet with a little under 40% of LDP lawmakers surveyed saying they were "undecided" or "unwilling to disclose their positions," the outcome of the race remains fluid, with plenty of time still left for maneuvering until ballot day scheduled for Sept. 29.
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