Some might feel relieved following the no-show of former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra at the Supreme Court on Friday.
Imagine if Ms Yingluck had showed up to hear the court ruling over her alleged malfeasance in the implementation of the rice-pledging scheme -- who would have felt relieved and who would have felt disappointed?
If she had turned up and the court acquitted her or handed down a guilty verdict with a suspended jail sentence, the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) would definitely have been disappointed.
Meanwhile, the political strength of the Pheu Thai Party and Thaksin Shinawatra, Ms Yingluck's brother, would have been reinforced.
On the other hand, the NCPO and its leader, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, would have been rebuked by the anti-Thaksin camp for failing to have Ms Yingluck punished and called it a "waste" of the 2014 coup.
In addition, the Prayut government and the military regime would have risked being denounced by the international community for toppling a democratic government without any proven justification.
Still, such a scenario was unlikely.
The following was a more likely scenario: A guilty verdict. Let's say Ms Yingluck showed up at the court and the court found her guilty. Based on the 42-year jail term given to former commerce minister Boonsong Teriyapirom in a related court case over the government-to-government sale of pledged rice, it would have been highly likely that the court would have handed down a jail sentence to Ms Yingluck without suspension.
Moreover, it was possible that she would not have received bail because the new law on criminal procedures against politicians, which would have paved the way for her appeal, has yet to take effect.
Still, this does not mean the regime would have been really happy over such an outcome. If Ms Yingluck had been put behind bars, Thailand's politics would have been shaken up and possible turbulence could not have been ruled out. At least, it would have fuelled and widened resistance, affecting the regime's power consolidation efforts and planned unity pact process.
Furthermore, the Pheu Thai Party would have taken advantage of the punishment of Ms Yingluck for its political campaigning to win the next general election expected late next year. It could have been an effective campaign and would have drawn huge support from Ms Yingluck's sympathisers and pro-democratic groups.
The former premier would have become the spearhead of democratic forces victimised by the authoritarian regime. She would have become a democracy icon who sacrificed herself for the benefits of politicians. The power of dissidents would have grown.
This could have affected the NCPO's efforts to prolong its power during the five-year transition period, following the next election, through new political systems defined by the new charter.
Under this scenario, the NCPO would have faced much more trouble.
Those who would have been happy with Ms Yingluck's imprisonment are in the anti-Thaksin camp, including the People's Alliance for Democracy and the People's Democratic Reform Committee. Pheu Thai members might have suffered to see her jailed, but her adversity could have become a blessing in disguise for the party.
Whatever the case, it would not have been favourable to the NCPO if Ms Yingluck had showed up on Friday. Fortunately, her "unexpectedly" successful escape amid the "tight monitoring" of security agencies offered an alternative to the regime.
Being criticised for letting Ms Yingluck escape seems easier to deal with than being pressured by the consequences of the different scenarios above.
Some political analyses see Ms Yingluck's escape as a win-win for both sides. The regime can avoid political pressure. Ms Yingluck has avoided a possible jail term. This has led to speculation that the regime might have created and facilitated that situation, and I'm half convinced by this talk.
About a month ago when I interviewed Ms Yingluck, she eagerly insisted that she would not flee and would fight the case to the end. She challenged anyone who thought she would escape to meet her at the court on the day of the ruling.
I think she did not lie and really intended to turn up. At the time, she might have thought she would become a great leader if she accepted whatever ruling.
But one of her close aides told me frankly that escape would still have been an option. He said a "team", surely including Mr Thaksin, would have assessed the situation and prospective ruling from time to time and made a decision when the time came.
The aide agreed Pheu Thai would have gained huge political benefits if Ms Yingluck had been jailed. But he raised concern over Ms Yingluck's fate had she been jailed.
"Who knows what would have happened to her if she were in prison," he said, perhaps reflecting Mr Thaksin's concerns.
Should Ms Yingluck have gained popularity from imprisonment, some ill-intentioned groups might have been unhappy about it and no one could have protected her if she was in prison, he elaborated. Eventually, "the team" decided to get her to flee.
Still, I do not agree with the view that Ms Yingluck's escape is a win-win deal. She has lost an opportunity to restore her family's pride damaged by Mr Thaksin's escape.
Under the new organic law on criminal procedures for holders of a political position, there is no statute of limitations for those who have fled court cases overseas. The statute of limitations will begin whenever they return to face the justice system.
This means Ms Yingluck has no chance to return to her homeland and Thai politics again, unless she agrees to serve penalties following the court's ruling first.
From now on, Mr Thaksin, Ms Yingluck and other Shinawatra family members may maintain their political roles by pulling the strings behind Pheu Thai and certain political groups. However, their political momentum will gradually be lost when the regime's political power is prolonged and strengthened by the new political system.
The Shinawatras will not gain trust from its politicians and supporters. This will definitely affect Pheu Thai's political future.
Soonruth Bunyamanee is deputy editor, Bangkok Post.
