Ousted premier Yingluck Shinawatra has gone -- some might say -- with the wind. And the way she fled the country was so sly, like a Hollywood film noir where the femme fatale coolly sashays out of the scene having outwitted everyone.
The media corps, waiting to cover the Supreme Court's historic ruling on the malfeasance case against Ms Yingluck, ended up finding themselves part of a hoax. Ms Yingluck has become the Gone Girl of Thai politics. She has left behind two politically active groups -- the khon dee ("good people") and the khon rak prachatippatai ("democracy lovers") -- bickering and brawling against one another.
Pundits and the media, including this newspaper, see Ms Yingluck's flight as the end of the Shinawatra era. Yet, a question remains for ordinary people like us: is Thailand going to become a more united and reconciled society? I believe you have your own answers.
Thailand's long-term future remains precarious given that the new political system does not look promising while suppression of freedom of expression and human rights violations are widespread. What is more certain is that the next general election might bring about the rise of the ultra-conservative wing, political groups who share their ideologies with the junta, and a weakened Pheu Thai Party, Ms Yingluck's political camp.
For ordinary people, such a future means the comeback of a lopsided political ideology in which the far right, ultra-conservatives reign. And you know darn well that such extremity can swiftly breed a public backlash.
If you are nostalgic for the past, then you will get what you long for. After the next general election, no matter how much we want MPs to be our real representatives, we will still see the return of a parliamentary system in which a junta-appointed Senate acts as a checks-and-balances mechanism. Such a parliament is something that existed when I was a high school student (over 30 years ago).
Also, our country will be steered by a junta-initiated 20-year national strategy that outlines visions and strategic directions which will be mandatory for future governments to follow.
This "master plan" is the junta's attempt to provide a consistent path for development. (Does it sound like a guarantee that state projects will be permanent and unchangeable?)
Such a long-term and consistent development strategy sounds good only if it is not planned by small groups of officials and technocrats, handpicked by the junta, but by representatives of the entire spectrum of society (as it should be under a democratic ruling). What will happen if local people are resistant to these projects? Are they going to be proceeded with just because they are part of the master plan?
Following the departure of Ms Yingluck, the Gone Girl, many pundits and khon dee also predict the end of populism -- a policy approach that proved appealing to voters and helped the Shinawatra clan secure electoral victories for over a decade. There are reasons to be optimistic. Approved by the cabinet, the monetary and fiscal bill, which provides a framework and regulations to curb public debt ceilings incurred by government policies, will become law soon. This law is an important step to rein in irresponsible populism and undisciplined and lavish spending of taxpayers' money on "quasi-fiscal activities".
The public spending restrictions under this bill, in fact, were watered down by the Council of State which viewed the original proposals as too rigid. For instance, it removed the 5% ceiling for off-budget spending and the requirement that governments must set aside a budget to pay off debt obligations through state-controlled banks within two years.
However, those who see the glass as half full, many who may be khon dee, believe the new law will put the hand-brake on the future implementation of expediently populist policies.
As Ms Yingluck vanishes from of the political scene, the military government that ousted her is increasingly criticised for its lavish spending, especially in the procurement of weapons and military hardware. But the question remains: Can any public agency hold the junta accountable?
In the latest mobile cabinet meet in Nakhon Ratchasima, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha demonstrated his apparent willingness to woo villagers, issuing land-use right documents to thousands of farmers while approving a 68-billion-baht infrastructure package to rev up the Northeast's economy.
The girl might be gone, but her populism model remains.
Anchalee Kongrut writes for Asia Focus, Bangkok Post.
