WASHINGTON _ Yet another independent poll shows Missouri's U.S. Senate race very close, but its underlying results on questions about issues and intensity reveal much more about the state of one of the nation's most-watched elections.
The poll by Reuters, Ipsos and the University of Virginia's Center for Politics shows Republican state Attorney General Josh Hawley supported by 45 percent of likely Missouri voters, and incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., supported by 44 percent. That's well within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
The same polling firm found businessman J.B. Pritzker leading Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner, 50 percent to 30 percent in Illinois.
The poll was taken Sept. 27-Oct. 7, in the midst of an all-out political fight over President Donald Trump's Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. According to the poll, Missourians also are split on that controversy and over which Senate candidate is most helped or hurt by it.
McCaskill voted against Kavanaugh, and 44 percent of Missourians said that vote would make them much more likely or somewhat more likely to vote for her. But 46 percent said that they would be much or somewhat less likely to vote for McCaskill because of her vote.
The intensity on this question slightly favors Hawley, who said he would have voted for Kavanaugh and has criticized McCaskill for voting no. Some 39 percent of respondents said they would be much more likely to vote against McCaskill for that vote, while 31 percent said they'd be much more likely to vote for her on that basis.
In other findings:
_Trump's approval rating among Missourians is essentially even at 50 percent approval and 49 percent disapproval. But the intensity of those who disapprove of Trump is higher than those who approve of him, with 32 percent strongly approving and 41 percent strongly disapproving. Trump has an 88 percent approval rating among Missouri Republicans and a 7 percent approval rating among Show-me Democrats.
_Health care (19 percent naming it), followed by the economy (12 percent), are cited by Missourians as the two most important issues. Immigration, at 10 percent, shows up third, outpacing the environment and other issues. Almost one in five likely Republican voters name immigration as their biggest concern, topping all other issues.
These findings explain why McCaskill has focused much of her campaign rhetoric and advertising on health-related issues, including protecting the ability of people with pre-existing conditions to get insurance. Meanwhile, Hawley, Trump and other Republican surrogates have emphasized a strong economy in campaign events in Missouri, along with getting tougher on illegal immigration.
_The pre-existing conditions issue is a problem for Hawley in this poll, and it explains why McCaskill is hitting him so hard for signing onto a lawsuit that challenges the Affordable Care Act. McCaskill says that, if successful, that lawsuit pursued by nearly two dozen states would take away the guarantees to those with pre-existing conditions embedded in the act; Hawley says he favors protecting pre-existing conditions but says it does not have to come through the Affordable Care Act, which he has attacked as broken.
In the poll, 69 percent of Missourians said they would be "very motivated" to vote for a candidate who wanted to protect pre-existing conditions, including 57 percent of Republicans and 70 percent of Independents.
_Hawley, who generally supports Trump's immigration policies, including a border wall with Mexico, accrues some of his biggest benefits on this issue. Some 57 percent said they would be very motivated or somewhat motivated to support a candidate who would "make it a priority to deport more illegal immigrants"; those percentages include 31 percent of Democrats, 81 percent of Republicans, and 47 percent of independents.
But 54 percent also said they'd be motivated to support a candidate who would favor a plan to allow undocumented immigrants to remain in the country if they were employed and had no criminal history; 80 percent of Democrats say they'd support that action, while only 33 percent of Republicans said they would.
