Yankee Stadium on Wednesday afternoon seemed to have one cleat in September and another planted firmly in the playoffs. There was champagne on chill _ there in case the Red Sox clinched the division. Media nearly outnumbered players, which is as good an indication as any that October is coming. And the Yankees, comfortably destined for a wild-card game, grappled with a not-so-comfortable question.
In a do-or-die situation, who's the pitcher that give you the best shot at surviving? The answer _ and certainly an uncomfortable one for fans _ is that they don't quite know just yet, but it does seem Aaron Boone is starting to form an answer.
"I would say that these next 12 days will play a role in deciding," Boone said. "You're going to do obviously everything you can to win that one game. That said, if you're toiling with a couple of decisions than maybe the next one comes into play a little bit if, hey we think this may be good, this may be good, this may be good. What's the best for going into the next [round]."
It's about as much of a hint as he's given anyone, and one that paints an intriguing picture of the wild-card game and then, if they win, an ALDS against the Red Sox. Once upon a time, the no-brainer answer would be Wednesday's starter, Luis Severino, who had a strong outing against the Red Sox. But recently, the tightest race has been between Masahiro Tanaka, who's been every bit the ace his last three starts, and J.A. Happ, who's been nearly untouchable since joining the Yankees.
Happ (16-6, 3.62 ERA) had a 0.54 ERA in three games against them this year, and is 7-4 with a 2.82 ERA in his career. By contrast, Tanaka is 8-4 with a 4.08 ERA against them. He's 6-0 with a 2.39 ERA and a 1.025 WHIP in nine starts as a Yankee.
Just a few weeks ago, that would have made him the presumptive starter, but recently, Tanaka has done his part to prove himself capable of handling a one-game elimination, if it comes to that.
After a slow first half, Tanaka has been in line with Happ in terms of dominance, and perhaps has even exceeded him. He's 3-0 in his last three starts, with a 0.43 ERA (and 5-3 with a 2.09 ERA post All-Star break). Granted, if the Yankees rotation continues as it has, the wild card would fall on Happ's turn to pitch, and "how the rotation falls a little bit will all factor into our decision as to who we would pitch in a wild card scenario, (and) who would we pitch if we were moving on," Boone said. The Yankees, though, are not beholden to that, and certainly not if they clinch any time soon.
Of course, all of this is a discussion at all because of Severino's precipitous second-half fall. Before his game against the Red Sox, he had gone 3-6 with a 6.35 ERA since the All-Star break. After Wednesday's performance, though _ seven innings, and one earned run on six hits _ it's possible he can pitch himself back into the conversation with two strong starts in the next week and a half.
But one thing is certain: The air is getting crisper and time is running out.
"The biggest thing that [you do consider] ... is that one game with no tomorrow," Boone said. "We've started to talk about it a little bit in earnest the last few days _ where we're at, what we're thinking, possibilities and then how these next dozen games or so, whatever we have left, how they play out.
