For my second Japan-themed post of the night, Reuters Online has assembled a collection of industry analysts to assess whether Xbox 360 can really compete with PS3 in Japan. And the resulting article is predictably downbeat. Although the company has been on a lengthy charm offensive, recruiting top Japanese developers like Square Enix, Tecmo and Yuke's to the already glittering 360 cause (more on this here), experts reckon the machine will remain in distant second behind Sony's contender. As the news piece puts it:
"Analysts expect the Xbox 360 to sell better than its previous version, but they don't expect it to seriously challenge Sony's dominance of the gaming market in Japan.
"There is no way it will come close to the PlayStation," said Tokyo-based Deutsche Securities analyst Takashi Oya. "Microsoft will have done well if it gets 10 percent market share in Japan."
U.S.-based research firm IDC estimates that Microsoft will sell 3.5 million Xbox 360 units in Japan by 2009, compared with 8 million PlayStation 3 units.
And later, just to rub it in a bit:
"It will be 'a job well done' if Microsoft can get equal market share with Nintendo in the next-generation battle, said KBC Securities analyst Hiroshi Kamide. 'It's not going to be possible to be number one,' he said."
Microsoft is making all the right moves, ensuring Xbox 360 will boast plenty of games that appeal to Japanese players (unlike Xbox which was heavily geared toward the US market) and - vitally, perhaps - launching before PS3. But to usurp Sony on its home ground? Of course the analysts are going to scoff. Just like they scoffed when Sony first announced its intention to enter the videogame hardware market thirteen years ago.
