A few weeks ago, after he had won the Giro d'Italia, I wrote about how Jonas Vingegaard had probably had his strongest Tour de France preparation yet, but we were still none the wiser about what that means in comparison to Tadej Pogačar.
That's a view I still stand by, but as we approach the start of the Tour de France, the more I see people asserting that Vingegaard simply has no chance against Pogačar, and the more I think that's a really wild assumption to make.
Yes, it's true that we have little to go off in terms of an accurate comparison between the two, and if we look at the last few years, Pogačar has always been much better at the Tour. But you don't have to go back particularly far to remember when it was Vingegaard who was crushing Pogačar – as much as we like to make it out, their rivalry has never been one sided.
Vingegaard is one of the many riders whose status suffers because he is racing in the era of Pogačar, where what was a successful career 10 years ago now feels less so against the yardstick of the Slovenian, but underestimate him at your peril.
He's a four-time Grand Tour winner, has had his most setback-free run-in in years and is coming off a Giro d'Italia where he won with ease, hardly having to exert himself to claim the GC and complete his Grand Tour set.
If his assertions are true, he often feels better in the second Grand Tour of the season, so he should be coming into this Tour de France feeling really, really good. And we know what a really good Vingegaard can do to Pogačar, he can beat him.
I know it's the popular narrative to say that Pogačar is unbeatable, that any race he starts is foregone conclusion, often used as a tool to berate him and his dominance, and I'll concede that often that prediction is right. But not always, and often not when it comes to his perennial rival Vingegaard, the man who can push him further than anyone else in stage races, and probably one of the only riders Pogačar feels truly challenged by.
This Tour is not a foregone conclusion, and suggesting at this stage that Vingegaard has no chance of going up against Pogačar feels shortsighted, defeatist, inaccurate even. As I said, you can't write him off.
However – and there is a however – there is one thing that is threatening to muddy Vingegaard's otherwise crystal clear run-in to this Tour, and that is the ongoing uncertainty and blows to his team line-up.
He already lost two of Visma-Lease a Bike's most trusted workhorses when Christophe Laporte and Wout van Aert were ruled out of the race before selection was made, and even though Visma officially announced their line-up last week, we're still not entirely sure who will join Vingegaard on the start line this Saturday.
The main source of uncertainty centres around Edoardo Affini, who had a nasty crash at the Italian National Championships, and though Visma have been quiet about his condition, just saying he will be monitored, the rumours are that his injury was quite nasty, and replacements were being put on standby over the weekend.
In a normal year, losing Affini may not be a huge blow, but when the team have already foregone Van Aert and Laporte, starting the Tour – which opens with a crucial TTT no less – without Affini too would feel like a depleted and weakened team especially for the chaotic and flatter first week.
In terms of possible replacements – remember they have already drafted in Davide Piganzoli to fill in for Van Aert, a super strong rider but certainly not like for like – Visma are not flush for options. They have already been slightly on the back foot this year, after Simon Yates' retirement caught them by surprise and left them with a gap on their roster, and now that, various injuries, and the complications of targetting two Grand Tours in the space of a few months is taking its toll.
If Affini cannot start, the most likely replacement at this point sounds like Bart Lemmen, a talented climber who helped shepherd Vingegaard to Giro victory a few weeks ago. Lemmen is a strong rider, particularly on the harder days, but he is not a fill in for Affini – he won't be riding for hours on the front, or dragging the team around the TTT, that's just not the type of rider he is.
Vingegaard could end up with a very climber-heavy support team, which may sound like the best tactic to try and overcome Pogačar in the climbs, but in truth will probably cost him more on the flat that it will win him in the mountains. If there's one thing that Pogačar's brute force racing can do, it's find a rival's weakness and exploit it.
And so Vingegaard's fantastic run-in, as it often has, hits a hurdle. Sometimes that hurdle has come earlier, with season-derailing crashes, and sometimes later, like now with his team selection up in the air just days before the race.
Fortunately, a weaker team is likely a much easier issue to overcome than broken bones, but it still could prove costly to Vingegaard. It's true that the Dane himself is looking really strong this year, and that he is – has always been – more than capable of matching or beating Pogačar when he's at his best.
But to be at his best, and to go up against the most dominant rider of his generation, Vingegaard needs every tiny thing to go right. So whilst his form and fitness look stronger than ever, and should not be underestimated when he and Pogačar go head to head over the next few months, those tiny things and small details could be the difference between finally overcoming his great rival once more, or retroactively confirming the narrative that the Slovenian was always going to win this race.
So no, the conclusion isn't foregone, and this Tour is not a one horse race. But a lot needs to start going right for Vingegaard if he wants to change that conclusion.
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