The Pheu Thai Party has been battered by a series of political misfortunes of late and it is facing a hard time to get back to its former glory.
The former ruling party, which won a landslide victory in the 2011 election that subsequently installed Yingluck Shinawatra as prime minister, has its hands full preparing for the Feb 24 general election. However, it has been gripped by fear of dissolution and rocked by the defection of its stalwarts to its sister party, the Thai Raksa Chart Party.
Critics have had a field day analysing the ill fortune befalling the party. They believe the party may be in danger of disintegrating as it seems to be shrinking in size.
Despite the problems plaguing the party led by the low-key Viroj Pao-in, one man has vowed to remain with the party through thick and thin.
Chalerm Ubumrung, a Pheu Thai key executive, reckons the worst is over for the party, and that the Pheu Thai possesses enough resilience to pull through the next poll unscathed.
He has given his assurance that Pheu Thai is not heading towards disbandment, nor that it is losing its lustre.
Concerns had mounted at one point that many of the party's former MPs will not qualify to run in the election as a result of the National Anti-Corruption Commission's (NACC) probe into 34 former ministers of the Yingluck cabinet.
The former ministers, who were also Pheu Thai members, were embroiled in the controversy over the cabinet's decision in 2012 to disburse 1.9 billion baht in state compensation to families of red shirts who had lost their lives in the street protests before the Yingluck administration came to power.
The NACC accused the former ministers of approving the compensation without any legal basis to support it.
However, Mr Chalerm came to the aid of the former ministers, and the party's legal team helped the former ministers furnish their defence to the satisfaction of the NACC. Mr Chalerm said he did not believe there are any grounds to prosecute the former ministers.
Critics have said the fate of the 34 former ministers may be tied to the party's. However, it may be true that even if the politicians are prosecuted, Pheu Thai would not be held liable, which means it won't contribute to the issue of party dissolution.
But if the former politicians were indicted and eventually found guilty by the court, Pheu Thai would have many voids to fill. The former MPs have a promising chance of getting re-elected and Pheu Thai simply cannot afford to lose them.
As one of the party's legal experts, Mr Chalerm added the authorities cannot pursue a dissolution case against the Pheu Thai Party on another charge based on the alleged interference in the party's affairs and decisions by ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
He said there was not a shred of evidence that Pheu Thai was dominated by Thaksin or obeyed his orders. Thaksin, a non-active member of Pheu Thai, is barred from any agenda-setting role or the running of the party which would risk it violating the law.
Mr Chalerm noted that a lot of successful policy programmes, such as the 30-baht health insurance coverage that are still being implemented today, were introduced by Thaksin.
Not only will the Pheu Thai Party survive, it will also thrive in the poll, Mr Chalerm predicted. The party will garner at least 200 constituency MPs and 12-15 list MPs.
The prediction puts the Pheu Thai Party at less than 20 seats shy from clinching half of the total MPs in the House of Representatives, he said.
PM hosts cast of undesirables
Reporters at Government House were surprised to see a disparate group of Asians and Westerners being ushered in last week to see Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha in the Ivory Room just before the premier left for an official visit to Germany.
The receiving room is normally reserved for visiting heads of state and government and senior ministers. The meeting was hastily announced only on the morning of the event.
It turned out that the group ushered in were members of an organisation called the "Asian Peace and Reconciliation Council" set up a few years ago and headed by Surakiart Sathirathai who served as foreign minister under the Thaksin Shinawatra administration.
It later transpired that several members of the group have questionable records.
One, a former prime minister of Pakistan, is under investigation by his country for corruption and "assets beyond known sources of income". He lives and works out of London and has not responded to a summons to report himself to the National Accountability Bureau in Rawalpindi.
Another was a former speaker of the Swedish parliament who was investigated for a "reign of terror" and abuse of power after 30 women MPs and staffers filed complaints of sexual harassment and offers of promotion for sex. The speaker agreed not to run in the recent elections.
Also among the group was an American professor allegedly connected with an aborted effort to solicit huge donations of some US$6 million (197 million baht) to set up a Thai studies centre at Harvard University.
Another allegedly dubious member of the group was the head of a small Finnish NGO which Thai national security agencies have been trying for many years to keep out of meddling in the peace talks with Islamic insurgent groups in the far South.
Conspiracy theorists wondered whether Gen Prayut had been duped by ill-intentioned officials into taking photos with a cast of undesirable characters in order to soil his image just before a European trip.
Indeed, German Chancellor Angela Merkel did make a point of stressing publicly before their own meeting about the need for international standards and democracy.
Another theory has it that since it seemed a senior government insider had facilitated the group's session with the premier, it might have been to show that many countries are still interested in Thailand at a time when Chinese tourists are dwindling.
But serious local political pundits have a different theory. They say Gen Prayut, being new to electoral politics, is being manoeuvred into embracing anyone in order to obtain their support. Domestically, this can be seen in his welcoming of hitherto "undesirable and tainted" politicians.
Many have already been given positions in the current administration and have been lured into a new political party set up to support Gen Prayut's predicted desire to return as prime minister after the election.
Embracing a tainted group of international visitors is merely transferring onto the international stage what his supporters are already practising on the local scene, especially before Thailand takes over the Asean chair next year, the pundits say.
However, the attempt is likely to backfire and hurt the country's image.
At the very least, it will make it more difficult for the Thai government to seek assistance in apprehending Thaksin and Yingluck, the fugitive sibling former prime ministers, when the government itself officially welcomes with open arms those who are under arrest warrants or face charges in other countries.
Surveys show close race
The pre-election competition is heating up with the battle now being waged on fresh turf -- the opinion polls.
Sangsit: 'Regime winning over voters'
All eyes are on two leading figures -- Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, chairwoman of the Pheu Thai Party's election strategy committee -- who are neck and neck in opinion surveys on who should make the cut for next prime minister after the Feb 24 election.
Such surveys have gained traction as a popularity barometer, according to experts on the subject who insisted people have the tendency to be more "swayed" by findings in the polls the closer the country gets to an election.
Although a date has not yet been announced by the Election Commission, less noise is coming from the critics who were fiercely sceptical that the Feb 24 poll will stand.
As confidence in the Feb 24 date grows, more people appear to be taking notice of opinion polls conducted on political subject matters, most particularly about the favourite to clinch the premiership post-election.
The government is also coming across as being increasingly "touchy" about survey results that are less favourable to it. Nida Poll, whose findings were thought by some observers to be traditionally positive for the regime, delivered the unexpected when it revealed on Nov 25 that Khunying Sudarat had overtaken Gen Prayut as the No.1 choice to be the next prime minister.
It came as a huge relief for Pheu Thai which was reeling from party heavyweights jumping ship to join a pro-regime party. According to Nida poll, Khunying Sudarat came top of a list of 10 people with a chance to be prime minister.
Khunying Sudarat took the first spot with 25.2%, followed by Gen Prayut on 24.1%; Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, the Future Forward Party leader (14.5%); and Abhisit Vejjajiva, the Democrat Party leader (11.7%).
Khunying Sudarat had previously come second to Gen Prayut in four previous surveys.
The Pheu Thai Party also topped the list of parties among those questioned.
When asked to name the party the respondents want to form the core of the next government, Pheu Thai came in first with 31.8%, followed by the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) on 19.9%; the Democrat Party (17%); and the Future Forward Party (15.6%).
But Nida Poll was given a run for its money by another poll directed by Sangsit Piriyarangsan, dean of Rangsit University's College of Social Innovation, which produced starkly different answers to the question of who should serve as the next premier.
Prof Sangsit explained opinion polls on the potential prime minister candidates were conducted four times this year, on May 1, June 13, Oct 15 and Nov 24. Each time, no fewer than 8,000 respondents participated in 350 constituencies nationwide.
The respondents were also selected to represent different regions, professional segments, gender and educational backgrounds, he said.
Prof Sangsit said Gen Prayut has topped three of the four surveys. He lost the top spot to Mr Abhisit only in the second survey on June 13. Khunying Sudarat had switched back and forth between second and third spot.
In the latest poll, Gen Prayut won a 27% share. He was trailed by Khunying Sudarat with 18%, Mr Abhisit on 15% and Mr Thanathorn on 9%.
Prof Sangsit said the polls were indicative of Pheu Thai's waning popularity. This is probably owing to the disunity among members of the party who have defected to other parties or to parties closely aligned with Pheu Thai such as the Thai Raksa Chart Party and the Pheu Chart Party.
Some of the thinkers and strategy masters -- to whose credit Pheu Thai managed to solidify its power with and win the previous election -- have broken away to join other parties. Pheu Thai is now left with no new populist policies to woo voters at the next election, according to Prof Sangsit.
The party has been upstaged by the government's welfare cards for the poor where state funds are wired to low-income earners every month. That, coupled with subsidies for public transport, has struck a chord with around 11 million people who benefit directly from the policies.
Prof Sangsit said the projects have won the hearts and minds of many people and the surging approval ratings of Gen Prayut and the government are rubbing off on the PPRP.
The professor predicted if the regime continued with the policies and nothing blemishes its reputation before the election, the PPRP stands a good chance of winning more than half of the MP seats up for grabs.
