As we reach the midpoint of the year, recession fears are slowly abating. In May, J.P.Morgan lowered the probability of a recession occurring in 2025 from 60% to 40%. However, it still warned that a period of subpar growth could lie ahead, especially if tariffs remain high.
While the news has calmed some of the fear surrounding the economy, it hasn't eliminated all of it. A survey conducted by Indeed and Harris Poll in June found that 46% of Americans are concerned about layoffs within the next year.
If you count yourself among that number, we have some good news. CNBC has identified the 10 states with economies that are least likely to be affected by a recession.
Don't Miss:
- Deloitte's fastest-growing software company partners with Amazon, Walmart & Target – Many are rushing to grab 4,000 of its pre-IPO shares for just $0.30/share
- $100k+ in investable assets? Match with a fiduciary advisor for free to learn how you can maximize your retirement and save on taxes – no cost, no obligation.
To score each state's economy, the outlet considered factors like state gross domestic product growth, job growth, state fiscal health, housing market health, among others. Additionally, CNBC looked at how dependent each state is on the federal government for jobs and funding, and how greatly it could be impacted by a potential trade war.
These ten states, it says, "have what it takes to navigate a recession."
At No. 10 is South Carolina. The state is fairly vulnerable to increased tariffs, thanks to the fact that international goods trade made up around one-third of its economy in 2024, but it also has one of the fastest-growing economies in the union, as well as significant job growth.
Georgia's diverse economy puts it at No. 9, and Utah, which led the nation in gross domestic product growth in 2024, comes in at number eight.
Trending: Named a TIME Best Invention and Backed by 5,000+ Users, Kara's Air-to-Water Pod Cuts Plastic and Costs — And You Can Invest At Just $6.37/Share
Idaho, which is fairly insulated from the trade war but heavily dependent on the federal government for jobs and funding, is number seven on CNBC's list. Washington state, New York and Delaware take up the sixth, fifth and fourth spots, respectively.
At No. 3 is North Carolina, which is also CNBC's top state for business overall in 2025. Despite some setbacks from Hurricane Helene, the state is affordable, sheltered from federal job and budget cuts, and home to three major companies— Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK), and Nucor (NYSE:NUE)— that provide a large number of jobs.
Texas has the second-most recession-proof economy in the US, CNBC reports. The sheer size of its economy helps offset concerns about its reliance on the federal government for jobs and international trade.
The most stable economy in the nation, according to CNBC's estimation, is Florida. Topping the list for the third year in a row, Florida benefits from strong finances, healthy economic and job growth, and a wealth of new business formations. However, the state does rely on the federal government for 34% of its budget, which has experts cautioning against complete trust in the Sunshine State.
Read Next:
- This AI-Powered Trading Platform Has 5,000+ Users, 27 Pending Patents, and a $43.97M Valuation — You Can Become an Investor for Just $500.25
- Warren Buffett once said, "If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die." Here’s how you can earn passive income with just $10.
Image: Shutterstock
