Several million people have fled Venezuela due to its economic collapse, and the nation is facing a critical situation as two people vie for recognition as the legitimate president. Cooperation and constructive engagement by the international community will be essential for peacefully bringing this situation under control.
Venezuela, a South American oil-producing nation, is roiled by political instability. President Nicolas Maduro has started his second term, but opposition leader Juan Guaido, who heads the National Assembly, has claimed this move is illegitimate. Guaido has declared himself to be Venezuela's interim president.
After an opposition party decisively won the 2015 National Assembly elections, Maduro watered down the assembly's authority, cracked down on opposition parties, and increasingly moved toward dictatorship. He was reelected in a May 2018 presidential election from which opposition party candidates were effectively excluded.
The United States and many Central and South American nations have recognized Guaido as president. Major European nations have announced that they too will recognize Guaido if Maduro does not hold a new election. Japan's position is "that it is an urgent matter for Venezuela to restore democracy in accordance with the country's Constitution."
If the current administration remains in place, it must be said that overcoming the severe economic and humanitarian crises in Venezuela will be very difficult. Fair elections should be held again quickly with support from and monitoring by the international community, and an administration that reflects the will of the majority of citizens must be established.
The left-wing, anti-U.S. and populist line followed since the reign of former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is being brought into question. Trumpeted as "21st-century socialism," these policies threw money from plentiful oil revenues into social welfare programs for the poor. However, a plunge in crude oil prices and economic mismanagement that ignored good sense caused the economy to collapse.
U.S. vs Russia, China
Amid a foreign currency shortage last year, inflation reached 1.7 million percent, and supplies of food, medicine and other daily necessities remain tight. At least 3 million Venezuelans -- about 10 percent of the population -- have fled to neighboring countries to escape hardship and the worsening security situation.
Venezuela's predicament epitomizes the ebb of left-wing administrations in Central and South America. Bolivia and other nations pushing ahead with similar authoritarian politics also will not be able to avoid receiving such a blow.
It is concerning that signs of a scrap for supremacy between the United States on one side and Russia and China on the other have emerged in the efforts to find a breakthrough to resolve the current situation.
The United States has slapped sanctions on Venezuela's state-owned oil company and is ratcheting up pressure to force Maduro to step down. This is undoubtedly aimed at removing the anti-U.S. administration and putting a check on nations such as Cuba.
Russia and China have clearly spelled out their support for Maduro and criticized the U.S. steps as interference in Venezuela's domestic affairs. Russia and China likely want to maintain their influence through economic and military cooperation with Venezuela.
A situation in which this turmoil drags on and rifts within Venezuela's military lead to bloodshed could have negative repercussions for oil markets and the global economy. Washington, Moscow and Beijing have a responsibility to refrain from excessively intervening in Venezuela and to seek common ground.
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Feb. 1, 2019)
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