Jonathan Bernhardt
My inclination is to always trust the pitching. That’s not how a series always works out, of course, especially not in the best-of-five divisional series: the Chicago Cubs managed to sneak into the NLCS with super-ace Jake Arrieta being a complete non-factor against the Cardinals, and they still managed to beat an otherwise more talented St Louis staff. That said, in Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard, the Mets have both the wow factor, ace-caliber upside and the depth to consistently marshal that upside throughout a seven-game series. Though Edinson Volquez has had one of those mystifyingly good postseasons that sometimes just happen to journeymen every now and again, and though Johnny Cueto is a proven ace and Yordano Ventura has electrifying stuff (when he’s not yapping himself out of his own rhythm, as almost cost the Royals dearly in game six of the ALCS), the Royals’ rotation just doesn’t compare to the Mets’. And while the Royals have a clear bullpen advantage, the Mets’ rotation is deep enough that we could see one of their young aces put in relief innings to bolster their back end – and either way, a bullpen is only great if you’re ahead when you get to it. Mets in six
Les Carpenter
What’s not to love about the Mets starting pitching? That said, I like the way Kansas City can attack elite starting pitchers. New York hasn’t faced a lineup this postseason as relentless as Kansas City’s. Neither the Dodgers nor the Cubs put tremendous pressure on the Mets’ top three starters. Kansas City’s bullpen can also shut down a team after the sixth inning. Jury Familia has been getting five- and six-out saves all postseason. But how much longer can he keep it up? Especially in a long series? Royals in six
Greg Couch
I just read a detailed analysis with all sorts of statistics I’ve never heard of explaining why the Royals have a edge over the Mets. One stat they forgot: YGTF. That’s Young Guys Throwing Fire. The Mets are loaded with it, and when you have it, it blows past all other details. Most stats and strategy are based on the premise that at some point, a bat hits a ball. With the Mets’ pitching, it doesn’t. This will be a problem for baseball for years. And Daniel Murphy might not hit a homer every game for years, but he’s doing it now. Mets in six
Hunter Felt
It’s going to be Kansas City, right? At this point, every time the Royals have looked finished they’ve mounted an improbable comeback. They staved off elimination in game four of the ALDS, beating the Houston Astros despite trailing by four runs in the eighth. They came back from a 3-0 hole in game two of the ALCS against the Toronto Blue Jays. In the ninth inning of game six, Toronto were down 4-3 and couldn’t get drive in the tying run, who was on third base with nobody out. Expect the New York Mets to drop at least two games where all logic says they should win, turning what feels like it should be a six or seven games series into a shorter, stranger one. Royals in five
DJ Gallo
The cliche is that pitching wins championships. It also happens to be true more often than not. The Mets enter the World Series with a league-best 2.81 postseason ERA compared to KC’s 4.41 (and the Royals haven’t even had to face new Babe Ruth/Daniel Murphy yet!). Assuming the five-day layoff between sweeping the Cubs and the start of the World Series hasn’t sapped Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Jeurys Familia of their magical powers, or given Scott Boras enough time to convince Harvey to shut it down, New York’s pitching will make the difference. Mets in six
Bryan Armen Graham
You can win the World Series because you’re a great team or you can win it because you’re the right team at the right time. The Mets feel an awful lot like the latter. It’s not simply a matter of going with the hot hand: Of the seven sides to sweep a league championship series since the LCS expanded to seven games in 1985, only the 1995 Braves went on to win the World Series and three of them – the 1990 A’s, the 2007 Rockies and the 2012 Tigers – were swept themselves. It’s more that Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard and Matz each appear to be dialed in at the right moment and capable of taming even the Royals’ relentless nine and taking the pressure off a questionable bullpen. As a result the National League’s fifth-best team over 162 games will close the show for the club’s third world title. Mets in six
Sean Keeler
The Royals have mojo, smarts and swagger. The Mets have Daniel Murphy (1.462 postseason OPS) and the best rotation still standing. Logic says killer starting pitching trumps all else in a short series, but Ned Yost’s club – and indeed, Ned himself – have never exactly subscribed to conventional logic, especially in October. This series could well be decided by what happens in innings five through seven, because the Royals, like zombies, keep coming. And coming. And coming. Mets in seven
David Lengel
Sweep or seven, I can’t see this going any other way. The Mets’ starting pitchers are better than once-in-a-generation, but they’re also tired. Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom have set career highs in the innings department: only Noah Syndergaard is under 200 frames amongst the big three, while Steven Matz, who will start game four, has been out of sync due to injuries. Pitching to the Royals’ hitters is like facing a mid-summer mosquito swarm: Lorenzo Cain and company will make their jobs extremely annoying. If I am a swami, I see runs. Lots and lots of runs. That probably favors the Royals, whose bullpen will stymie the Mets’ bats when they need to. Royals in seven
