A world renowned data guru has offered his thoughts on the Premier League title race.
Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight website has created a data model to predict who will finish where in the Premier League.
Silver was named one of the 100 most influential people in the world after correctly predicting the outcomes of the 2008 and 2012 US elections, but his background is in sports data modelling.
And his website has predicted that Man City will win the Premier League title by a single point from Liverpool.
Pep Guardiola's men have been given a 60 per cent chance of winning the title in comparison to Liverpool's 40 per cent.
The table in full
Man City - 94 points
Liverpool - 93 points
Arsenal - 76 points
Tottenham - 76 points
Chelsea - 74 points
Man United - 71 points
Wolves - 55 points
Watford - 54 points
Leicester City - 51 points
Everton - 51 points
West Ham - 47 points
Bournemouth - 46 points
Crystal Palace - 43 points
Newcastle United - 42 points
Southampton - 42 points
Brighton & Hove Albion - 40 points
Burnley - 39 points
Cardiff City - 33 points
Fulham - 23 points
Huddersfield Town - 18 points
How it works
Silver’s sports modelling crunches a torrent of numbers to produce a unique ‘soccer performance index’ for each club.
That is derived from historical data on past performance, individual player match-by-match ratings based on Opta scores, attacking and defending weighting and a complex variety of other factors including the vogue measure of ‘expected goals.’
The model also takes account of types of goals scored and conceded and tries to quantify ‘luck’, the discrepancy between data showing the team is playing well but a result going against them. That SPI changes with every result.
