1) Australia have been sloppy – so far
Late tries from Jack Dempsey and Will Genia against Georgia did little to mask another scrappy performance from Australia, who have yet to click into gear. It must be said that it was another strong showing at the scrum – no mean feat against Los Lelos – and while the wet weather does mitigate against some of handling errors, there were still too many of them. It is always physical against Georgia, however, and as intense as England’s training session in the Miyazaki sunshine was on the weekend, it is no substitute for abrasive Test match opponents. There will be a nagging concern among England supporters that facing Australia will be a bit of a shock to the system for their side, having been on cruise control hitherto. The Wallabies did a lot of good things in their narrow defeat by Wales, mixed in with plenty of sloppy errors. If those can be eradicated then Australia will be a force to be reckoned with.
2) Tackle their strengths
It was at times like a scene from the Alamo in the second half but England should pay close attention to how Wales went about beating Australia. Wales took them on at an area of traditional strength, outgunning them at the breakdown despite the Wallabies fielding Michael Hooper and David Pocock. Wales won 11 turnovers to Australia’s three and the back-row trio of Aaron Wainwright, Justin Tipuric and Josh Navidi – all flankers by trade – were outstanding throughout, consistently denying the Wallabies quick ball. By contrast, it was Pocock ruling the breakdown against Georgia, having been moved to openside and handed the captaincy. He is one player moving through the gears nicely for Australia and England will still have nightmares of how he and Hooper condemned them to an early World Cup exit four years ago. If England are to combat that threat, so much rests on Tom Curry and Sam Underhill. The ‘“Kamikaze Kids” are thick as thieves off the field and their burgeoning partnership on it looks promising. They have a combined age of just 44 however and total caps of 28 compared to the 180 held by “Pooper”, so England must hope youth trumps experience.
3) Selection at 10 will be key
Eddie Jones has a decision to make over selection with regards to the out of form Owen Farrell. His captain will play, but where is less certain with Jones denied the chance to give him a run at fly-half against France. Michael Cheika, however, has a bigger headache over his No 10 and indeed his scrum-half. Against Georgia he started with Nic White and Matt Toomua – who has perhaps looked the most accomplished at fly-half, carrying hard and straight – which was his 11th half-back pairing since the 2015 World Cup final. White seems to be the pragmatic choice at No 9 but at fly-half Chieka’s other options include Bernard Foley, dreadfully out of nick, and Christian Leali’ifano, who was the fly-half for the record win over the All Blacks in Perth in August. With James O’Connor and Kurtley Beale at his disposal, Cheika has plenty of choices but he must get his selection right if Australia are to advance to the last four.
4) Indiscipline has been a Wallaby problem
Another yellow card for Australia, this time for Isi Naisarani, taking their total for the tournament to three. And that does not take into account Reece Hodge’s citing for his high tackle on Fiji’s Peceli Yato. For all that Michael Cheika has raged about officiating at the World Cup, his side do not seem to be able to stay on the right side of the law. Contrast that to England, who have not received a card of any colour. Granted, they have played one less match, and it was determined afterwards that Piers Francis ought to have received a yellow card against the USA, but England’s disciplinary record has been better so far. That could well mean that they are due one or that it is an area where they have the edge on Australia. Either way, Cheika must drum into his players that they must avoid contact with the head if things are to change for the Wallabies.
5) The battle starts with Cheika
It did not take long for Cheika to pull the pin out of the first verbal grenade and lob it in the direction of his old rival Jones. Speaking soon after the victory over Georgia he said: “I saw he was saying that that would be an advantage and the typhoon gods were smiling on him. So I suppose they’d better win. They’ve had the best preparation, according to the coach, so they’d better go out there and win. We’ll see how we go.” Since being appointed as England head coach, Jones has led his side to six consecutive victories over Cheika’s Wallabies, starting with a 3-0 series win in Australia in the summer of 2016. On that tour Jones came out on top in the verbal jousting as well and since then, the pair have rarely resisted the chance to go at it. It is unlikely they will change tack this week.
