Analysis: On Tuesday afternoon, New Zealand’s power usage will nudge upwards ever so slightly, as screens flicker on for the kickoff of the All Whites’ first Fifa World Cup 2026 game, against a politically embattled Iran team.
“Major sporting events can have a small but noticeable impact on the power system, such as through a small surge of demand as thousands of kettles get switched on for a half-time cuppa,” says Transpower executive general manager Chantelle Bramley.
“It’s nothing the system can’t handle so we’ll be able to keep our focus on what is happening on the field as the All Whites hopefully progress through the World Cup.”
It’s a small reminder of how rising power and fuel prices have hit the hip pockets of households and businesses. Just out now, Stats NZ reports inflation figures on petrol and diesel prices easing slightly last month.
But hidden behind the headline are the cold hard year-on-year figures: diesel is up 76.8 percent, petrol is up 28.7 percent, electricity is up 12.1 percent and gas is up 10.5 percent.
The figures come as climate agency Niwa warns of a chillier-than-usual winter with occasional cold snaps down the west coast of the North Island and the entire South Island. Amid this, there will be people on low incomes, and in poor-quality housing, who will be switching off their heating when they need it most.
Fortunately, the hydro lakes are full this year, so wholesale electricity prices shouldn’t spike, but power users must still pay retailers’ increased bills.
And, in particular, we’re two years into a series of sharp increases to distribution and transmission costs, mandated by the Commerce Commission to enable lines companies to update tired networks to handle the electrification of our economy.
Four years ago this month, when inflation last spiked, the big concern for families was food prices. And today, it’s again the case that food prices are rising slightly faster than headline consumers price index inflation. In particular, meat, poultry and fish are up 6.9 percent year on year.
But for most households and businesses, the big concern going into this year’s election will be rising energy prices.
National will argue that this confirms the importance of procuring a billion-dollar plus LNG terminal to bridge the gap through to when we have enough renewables and batteries to supply our needs. Its coalition partner, NZ First, says the power gentailers also need to be broken apart, separating their generation and retail arms to make it easier for challengers to enter the market.
Labour is yet to announce its energy policy, but the party has signalled energy prices will be at the centre of its campaigning on cost of living – and that was a couple of weeks before the first missiles hit Iran.
“Fuel costs continue to squeeze families and businesses,” finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds says. “Families are doing it tough, and National has no answers.”
Today, new polling shows National well behind Labour on its perceived ability to address cost of living. The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure NZ found 40 percent of New Zealanders name “relieving cost of living pressures” as their single most important issue, but only 29 percent would trust National to deliver on that.
Yesterday’s news that the US and Iran have signed a peace deal is being greeted cautiously by energy market players. Terry Collins, AA’s fuel price specialist, told RNZ that what would matter would be how insurers and shipping companies feel about sending tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
“What they’ll be looking for is stability. You’ve got just over 500 tankers caught up in there … it’ll be their risk appetite for putting them back in. You’ve got the likes of Iraq who’ve shuttered some of their production and that takes weeks to get back on, they don’t want to start putting on production if they think there’s a chance they’ve got to shut it down again.”
Brent crude oil dropped below US$83 a barrel yesterday. “Will it be a collapsing price because oil’s got to 83? No, I still expect we’ll be paying 80s out to the rest of the year where we used to pay 60s, but things will settle down and be less extreme if we get some form of stability.”
Waitomo Group’s chief executive Simon Parham says the fuel retailer will drop fuel prices today, in expectation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. But that feels more like a marketing stunt than a response to actual fuel costs.
And for electricity, of course, the effect of ending the war may be negligible. MBIE’s latest data shows renewables generated 94.5 percent of all electricity in the March 2026 quarter, which is good – but it does mean we must accept that most of NZ’s forecast power price rises are baked in. Decisions by Donald Trump and Iran’s new Supreme Leader won’t help. What we’re paying for is not a global commodity, but the infrastructure to electrify our economy.
So hunker down and enjoy the football – because a couple of hours of TV is going to be the least of your concerns when you come to pay your power bills over coming months and years.
