A new simulation of the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage draw handed the U.S. men’s national team an immediate challenge, while the other two host nations, Mexico and Canada, could also be in for difficult games.
The official World Cup group stage draw takes place on Friday, with supporters from around the world preparing to learn the fates of their country. 42 of the 48 participants are confirmed, and they will learn their first three opponents for the tournament when the draw takes place—those still to contest the playoffs in March will also know what awaits them should they get through.
All countries heading to North America next summer are hopeful of avoiding one thing: the dreaded group of death.
And a new mock draw conducted by Sports Illustrated has handed Mauricio Pochettino and his USMNT side a difficult, yet manageable route through to the knockout stages.
USMNT Simulated Group Stage Draw
| Group D |
|---|
| USA |
| Croatia |
| Tunisia |
| New Zealand |
The U.S. is joined by Croatia, Tunisia and New Zealand in Group D.
Led by Luka Modrić, Croatia would represent a difficult challenge early in the tournament. On the flipside, it could be the perfect test to see how prepared the USMNT truly is. Croatia finished third and second respectively at the last two World Cups and can never be counted out.
As far as marquee matchups go, Christian Pulisic battling his AC Milan teammate would certainly meet the criteria.
Pochettino and his men would likely fancy their chances of at least finishing second if they draw Tunisia and New Zealand. The former failed to advance past the group stage in 2018 and 2022, while the latter have qualified for their first World Cup since 2010.
The Croatia game would probably determine who tops Group D.
Full 2026 World Cup Group Stage Simulation
Here are the rest of the groups from the latest Sports Illustrated simulation ahead of the real thing:
(Check out our previous simulation here!)
Mexico Handed Difficult Road
| Group A |
|---|
| Mexico |
| Colombia |
| Scotland |
| Jordan |
Host nation Mexico is drawn against Colombia, Scotland and Jordan—a difficult group that threatens El Tri’s chances of advancing to the bracket.
Colombia will be led by Bayern Munich star Luis Díaz, hoping to go one step further than a runner-up finish in the 2024 Copa América. Scotland features established talents like Andy Robertson, Scott McTominay and Kieran Tierney. Given the nature of their last-minute qualification, Scotland will be relishing their opportunity to perform next summer.
A win against Jordan, a first-time qualifier, could see Mexico through as a third-place team. A draw could bring their tournament to an early end.
Canada Face Uphill Battle to Qualify
| Group B |
|---|
| Canada |
| Morocco |
| Saudi Arabia |
| Italy, Northern Ireland, Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina |
Canada’s simulated opponents include Morocco, Saudi Arabia and an undetermined playoff team—Italy, Northern Ireland, Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Morocco looks to improve on their fourth place finish from 2022, while Saudi Arabia notably pulled off the upset of that tournament beating Argentina in the group stage.
Whoever joins the Group B field would massively influence the third host nation’s chances of advancing. If it’s Italy, Canada could be eliminated from the group stage. The other three wouldn’t necessarily be walks in the park either.
Lionel Messi Primed for World Cup Repeat
| Group C |
|---|
| Argentina |
| Australia |
| South Africa |
| Haiti |
Argentina would be licking their lips if this is their group next summer.
The reigning World Cup champions would, barring some catastrophic occurrence, be heavily favored to top this group. Given Argentina wouldn’t meet Spain, the other tournament favorite, until the final based on the group stage draw rules, Lionel Messi could be primed for a Hollywood ending to his international career.
Ronaldo Chases History
| Group E |
|---|
| Portugal |
| Iran |
| Panama |
| Cabo Verde |
The World Cup is often used as the one trophy against Cristiano Ronaldo’s legendary career. He might not need to win it, at least in his mind, but adding the most prestigious international honor to his cabinet would certainly reignite the greatest of all time debate.
Portugal was drawn against Iran, Panama and Cabo Verde. If this group comes to light, Ronaldo should top this group all things considered.
Germany Face Immediate Tests
| Group F |
|---|
| Germany |
| Uruguay |
| Qatar |
| Ghana |
Germany, on paper, have the talent to go deep in 2026, although lifting the trophy might be one step too far forJulian Nagelsmann right now. But simulated opponents in Uruguay and Ghana would offer litmus tests straight away. If they top their group, Die Mannschaft could be in for a memorable summer.
On the other hand, unfavorable results could doom the 2014 winners to a third-place finish and a difficult knockout stage run.
The Group of Death
| Group G |
|---|
| Brazil |
| Senegal |
| Norway |
| Ukraine, Sweden, Poland or Albania |
Brazil, Senegal and Norway would already represent the group of death at any World Cup. Throw Ukraine, Sweden or Poland into the mix and you’ve got the most exciting matches of the opening round.
This proposed group is full of star talents like Vinicius Junior, Sadio Mane, Erling Haaland and more. If Sweden joins, then there’s Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres. Poland would introduce Robert Lewandowski in likely his final World Cup ever.
It’s near impossible to predict how this group would play out, but have popcorn on standby if it becomes reality.
Netherlands Want Revenge
| Group H |
|---|
| Netherlands |
| Japan |
| Paraguay |
| Denmark, North Macedonia, Czechia or Republic of Ireland |
The Netherlands nearly upset eventual winners Argentina in 2022 losing on penalties. Wout Weghorst’s heroics in extra time only delayed elimination and the Oranje will be eager to prove themselves in North America.
Japan, Paraguay and a playoff team of either Denmark, North Macedonia, Czechia or the Republic of Ireland certainly offer a talented side like Netherlands the platform to top their group and go on a run.
Mbappe Seeks Second World Cup in Eight Years
| Group I |
|---|
| France |
| Austria |
| Algeria |
| Curaçao |
It’s Didier Deschamps’s last go at the World Cup with France in 2026. Les Bleus nearly became the first team since Brazil in 1958 and 1962 to win consecutive World Cups, losing to Argentina in the 2022 final in a tense penalty shootout.
France remain one of the most talented, if not the most talented team on paper heading in 2026. Given the emotional nature of Deschamps’s final tournament, France should not be overlooked as a potential winner.
Yamal Chases World Cup Glory
| Group J |
|---|
| Spain |
| Switzerland |
| Egypt |
| Iraq, Bolivia or Suriname |
Lamine Yamal knows very well if he helps Spain win a World Cup next summer he could become the youngest Ballon d’Or winner of all time. The Barcelona prodigy is already a superstar at the club and national team levels and Spain are absolutely loaded with talent.
The Euro 2024 winners are a favorite to go all the way next summer, with a simulated group of Switzerland, Egypt and one of Iraq, Bolivia or Suriname offering important tests along the way.
Are England for Real?
| Group K |
|---|
| England |
| Ecuador |
| Uzbekistan |
| DR Congo, New Caledonia or Jamaica |
Thomas Tuchel was brought in to take England one step further than Sir Gareth Southgate’s iterations of the Three Lions.
Back-to-back runner-up finishes at the Euros, combined with a quarterfinal exit in Qatar, have the country believing football could truly be coming home.
Ecuador would be England’s toughest test here. That game could easily determine who finishes top in Group K, while Uzbekistan and a playoff side of either DR Congo, New Caledonia or Jamaica hope they can amass enough points to move on as a third-place team.
Another Group of Death? Sign Us Up
| Group L |
|---|
| Belgium |
| South Korea |
| Ivory Coast |
| Türkiye, Romania, Slovakia or Kosovo |
Group L could easily be tagged as another group of death.
Belgium’s golden generation might not have the silverware it hoped to conquer, but there are still heaps of talent in the squad. South Korea and Son Heung-min will likely have a massive following throughout the tournament given how the latter exploded onto the MLS scene with LAFC.
READ THE LATEST WORLD CUP NEWS, PREVIEWS & ANALYSIS HERE
This article was originally published on www.si.com as World Cup Group Stage Mock Draw 2.0: USMNT Land Past Finalists in Big Test.
