The expanded World Cup 2026 format means the introduction of a round of 32 and for some third-placed teams a chance at knockout glory.
Teams who finish fourth in their groups are eliminated immediately, but eight of the 12 third-placed teams will live to fight another day. And the battle is close.
Scotland currently sit 10th in the third-place table after playing their three group games, which leaves their last-32 hopes hanging by a thinnest of threads
World Cup third-place teams standings
Pos. |
Team |
P |
W |
D |
L |
GD |
Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Sweden |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
2 |
Ecuador |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
3 |
Bosnia & Herzegovina |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
-1 |
4 |
4 |
Paraguay |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
-2 |
4 |
5 |
Senegal |
3 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
Iran |
3 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
7 |
Croatia |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
-1 |
3 |
8 |
South Korea |
3 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
-1 |
3 |
9 |
Algeria |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
-2 |
3 |
10 |
Scotland |
3 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
-3 |
3 |
11 |
Uruguay |
3 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
-1 |
2 |
12 |
DR Congo |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
-1 |
1 |
How Scotland can qualify for round of 32
If Scotland do qualify in third, their reward will be a last 32 clash against a group winner and as things currently stand, it would be against tournament co-hosts Mexico.
But their chances are slim. Very slim. They have a 0.07 per cent chance of progressing, to be precise.
Scotland need three results to go their way tonight to reach the knockout stages.
They need Ghana to defeat third-placed Croatia by at least three goals, leaving both teams level on points but giving Croatia an inferior goal difference.
Scotland also require Uzbekistan to avoid defeat against DR Congo. There is a caveat though: If Uzbekistan win, the margin must be fewer than four goals, otherwise they would move above Scotland in the rankings.
Finally, Austria must beat Algeria by at least two goals, a result that would leave Algeria behind Scotland on goal difference in the table of third-placed teams and keep Scotland's qualification hopes alive.
How are the eight best third-placed teams decided?
The eight best third-placed teams are ranked based on several criteria.
First, teams are compared by the total number of points they obtained in all group matches. If teams are still level, their goal difference across all group matches is considered. If a tie remains, the total number of goals scored in all group matches is used.
If teams cannot be separated using these criteria, the Fair Play ranking is applied, taking into account the number of yellow and red cards received during all group matches. As a final tiebreaker, the FIFA World Ranking is used.
