The European section of qualification for next summer’s World Cup has entered its final stages with Norway and Italy battling for top spot in Group I.
On Sunday, the top two meet in Milan for what can’t exactly be described as a winner-takes-all showdown as there is a scenario where the Azzurri claim the three points and still not qualify automatically.
This is because of Norway’s massive goal difference of +29 after just seven matches. Erling Haaland is largely responsible for this, with the Manchester City striker netting 14 times in qualification.
Haaland, who scored five times in a 11-1 thrashing of Moldova in September, scored a brace as Norway beat Estonia 4-1 on Thursday to take another giant step towards World Cup qualification.
Not since Euro 2000 have Norway participated at a major international tournament, but they are 90 minutes away from ending this long run.
As it stands, Haaland and company just need to avoid defeat by Italy at the San Siro in order to join the likes of England, France, Argentina and Brazil at next summer’s World Cup.
In fact, Norway can afford to lose against the 2006 winners and still qualify automatically for the tournament - but only as long as the unlikely scenario does not become a reality.
Below, Standard Sport runs through how Italy can pip Norway to top spot in Group I and avoid a second round play-off tie early in the new year.
How Italy can qualify automatically for World Cup 2026
Victory for Italy against Norway on Sunday would put the two nations level on points at the top of Group I. As per UEFA, in the event of a tiebreaker, the greatest goal differential in all group matches is the criteria used to separate them.
Italy’s 2-0 win over Moldova on Thursday leaves them with a goal difference of +12 heading into the final group stage fixture. Meanwhile, Norway have a goal difference of +29.
This means Gennaro Gattuso’s side must win by NINE clear goals against Norway to top the group.
For example, a 9-0 win would improve Italy’s goal difference to +21 and reduce Norway’s to +20. However, a 8-0 win for the hosts would not be enough for first place.
