We close with a song: Polina Gagarina hollers something uplifting while dozens of bored schoolchildren walk on stage, each bearing a home-made looking t-shirt with a participating nation’s flag on it. To borrow my Dad’s description of a David Copperfield TV special, that was ten minutes of entertainment packed into three hours. Nonetheless, the road to (probably) Russia is much clearer. Thanks for joining me. Bye!
Where to start with that? As good a place is any is Group F, where England have been drawn with Scotland. The two auld enemies will also play Slovakia, Slovenia, Lithuania and Malta, in a group neither Roy nor Gordon will be too disappointed with. Wales avoided a Pot 2 heavyweight, and find themselves in a well-balanced Group D, with Republic of Ireland, Austria, Serbia, Moldova and Georgia.
Elsewhere, Group A looks the toughest of all, with Holland and France paired together, and Sweden and Bulgaria making things interesting. Northern Ireland haven’t been helped by their Pot 3 status, landing Germany, Czech Republic and Norway, while Spain and Italy were also thrown together in Group G.
I’m with Kevin Smith though, who says “Group I looks fascinating. No super strong team, no super weak team, it looks almost impossible to predict”. Croatia, Iceland, Ukraine, Turkey and Finland: any of those teams could realistically qualify. In the sprawling hell of UEFA qualification, that’s rare.
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UEFA World Cup 2018 qualifying draw – England drawn with Scotland, Wales drawn with Republic of Ireland
Group A: Netherlands, France, Sweden, Bulgaria, Belarus, Luxembourg
Group B: Portugal, Switzerland, Hungary, Faroe Islands, Latvia, Andorra
Group C: Germany, Czech Republic, NORTHERN IRELAND, Norway, Azerbaijan, San Marino
Group D: WALES, Austria, Serbia, REPUBLIC OF IRELAND, Moldova, Georgia
Group E: Romania, Denmark, Poland, Montenegro, Armenia, Kazakhstan
Group F: ENGLAND, Slovakia, SCOTLAND, Slovenia, Lithuania, Malta
Group G: Spain, Italy, Albania, Israel, FYR Macedonia, Liechtenstein
Group H: Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Estonia, Cyprus
Group I: Croatia, Iceland, Ukraine, Turkey, Finland
Pot 2 time... and the home nations dodge France and Italy! Group A looks to be the one for England and Wales to avoid...
Group A: France, Sweden, Bulgaria, Belarus, Luxembourg
Group B: Switzerland, Hungary, Faroe Islands, Latvia, Andorra
Group C: Czech Republic, NORTHERN IRELAND, Norway, Azerbaijan, San Marino
Group D: Austria, Serbia, REPUBLIC OF IRELAND, Moldova, Georgia
Group E: Denmark, Poland, Montenegro, Armenia, Kazakhstan
Group F: Slovakia, SCOTLAND, Slovenia, Lithuania, Malta
Group G: Italy, Albania, Israel, FYR Macedonia, Liechtenstein
Group H: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Estonia, Cyprus
Group I: Iceland, Ukraine, Turkey, Finland
Time for Pot 3, which includes Scotland, who go into Group F, and Northern Ireland, who are in Group C...
Group A: Sweden, Bulgaria, Belarus, Luxembourg
Group B: Hungary, Faroe Islands, Latvia, Andorra
Group C: NORTHERN IRELAND, Norway, Azerbaijan, San Marino
Group D: Serbia, REPUBLIC OF IRELAND, Moldova, Georgia
Group E: Poland, Montenegro, Armenia, Kazakhstan
Group F: SCOTLAND, Slovenia, Lithuania, Malta
Group G: Albania, Israel, FYR Macedonia, Liechtenstein
Group H: Greece, Estonia, Cyprus
Group I: Ukraine, Turkey, Finland
Now Pot 4, which includes Republic of Ireland, who land in Group D with Moldova and Georgia (so far)...
Group A: Bulgaria, Belarus, Luxembourg
Group B: Faroe Islands, Latvia, Andorra
Group C: Norway, Azerbaijan, San Marino
Group D: REPUBLIC OF IRELAND, Moldova, Georgia
Group E: Montenegro, Armenia, Kazakhstan
Group F: Slovenia, Lithuania, Malta
Group G: Israel, FYR Macedonia, Liechtenstein
Group H: Estonia, Cyprus
Group I: Turkey, Finland
Here are the groups now that Pot 5 has been drawn:
Group A: Belarus, Luxembourg
Group B: Latvia, Andorra
Group C: Azerbaijan, San Marino
Group D: Moldova, Georgia
Group E: Armenia, Kazakhstan
Group F: Lithuania, Malta
Group G: FYR Macedonia, Liechtenstein
Group H: Cyprus
Group I: Finland
Oliver Bierhoff and Alexander Kerzhakov are out on stage, just the fifteen minutes late. There’s more stilted chit-chat, before the Pot 6 teams are drawn into Groups A-G. Groups H and I will have to do without; those groups will only have five teams.
Group A: Luxembourg
Group B: Andorra
Group C: San Marino
Group D: Georgia
Group E: Kazakhstan
Group F: Malta
Group G: Liechtenstein
That doesn’t tell us much, to be honest.
The European draw is about to begin!
For real, this time!
...right after a performance from the Jazz World Stars. In an admirable effort to avoid any excitement until the last possible moment, the European pots will be drawn from the bottom up, so England, and indeed Wales, will be among the final names out. Here are those pots again:
Pot 1: Germany (holders), Belgium, Holland, Portugal, Romania, England, Wales, Spain, Croatia
Pot 2: Slovakia, Austria, Italy, Switzerland, Czech Republic, France, Iceland, Denmark, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Pot 3: Ukraine, Scotland, Poland, Hungary, Sweden, Albania, Northern Ireland, Serbia, Greece
Pot 4: Turkey, Slovenia, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Norway, Bulgaria, Faroe Islands, Montenegro, Estonia
Pot 5: Cyprus, Latvia, Armenia, Finland, Belarus, FYR Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Lithuania, Moldova
Pot 6: Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Georgia, Malta, San Marino, Andorra
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We now know what the first round of fixtures will be in South America. Are you ready?
Colombia v Peru
Chile v Brazil
Argentina v Ecuador
Venezuela v Paraguay
Bolivia v Uruguay
Forlan and Ronaldo give their thoughts. Forlan: “it’s a tougher region than most”. Ronaldo: “I didn’t play in qualifiers”. Europe’s next. Promise!
You guys are on point with your Russian pop culture references. Personally, I’m hoping for a duet to play us out.
Summary
The Oceania draw was relatively painless – the two groups are: Tahiti, New Caledonia, Papua New Guinea, and the preliminary round winner; and New Zealand, Solomon Islands, Fiji, Vanuatu. Now Ronaldo and Diego Forlan are here to do the draw for South America. These teams play in one group anyway, so I’m not sure what the point of this is. Forlan in particular looks nonplussed.
With the European draw looming on the horizon, here’s a bit more on Blatter and Putin broing down at the start of the ceremony.
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A break for some culture, as two dancers from Boris Eifman Ballet perform to the soothing tones of Tchaikovsky. It’s so much better than pretty much everything that’s gone before, it’s almost moving.
Anyway, it’s time for Oceania, then South America, then finally, finally Europe. It’s almost time...
Not one, not two, not three, not four, but five qualifying rounds for this lot. We’re already up to Round 3, which consists of six knockout ties. The winners will join the loftily-ranked USA, Costa Rica, Mexico, Honduras, Panama and Trinidad & Tobago in Round 4, which consists of three groups of four. And those groups are...
Group A: Mexico, Honduras, Curacao/El Salvador, Canada, Belize
Group B: Costa Rica, Panama, Grenada/Haiti, Jamaica/Nicaragua
Group C: USA, Trinidad & Tobago, St Vincent & the Grenadines/Aruba, Antigua & Barbuda/Guatemala
The top two in each group then go to Round 5, which is a brutal six-way fight to the death. Sorry, it’s a round robin, where the top three go to (probably) Russia, and the fourth-placed team go to a play-off. USA will be happy to have dodged Jamaica, who just this week dumped them out of the Gold Cup.
Now it’s time for CONCACAF, the zone combining North America, Central America and the Caribbean. On stage to do their thing are Fabio Cannavaro and beach soccer supremo Madjer. Host Dmitry Shepelev asks Cannavaro “you won the Golden Ball as a defender. That’s rare, isn’t it?” “Yes”, replies Fabio. Let’s get on with it, shall we?
As promised, here are a few choice Round 2 eliminators from the African zone:
South Sudan (the only debutants in qualifying) or Mauritania v Tunisia
Somalia/Niger v Cameroon
Chad/Sierra Leone v Egypt
Comoros/Lesotho v Ghana
Djibouti/Swaziland v Nigeria
Liberia/Guinea-Bissau v Ivory Coast
Tanzania/Malawi v Algeria
Morocco v Equatorial Guinea
Angola v South Africa
There’s a break for a song. Is it an improvement on the cossack ball-jugglers? No.
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Gary Naylor has a corker of a question:
@niallmcveigh What are the most pots a nation has occupied in World Cup draws? I'm thinking that Wales has been in Pots 1, 2, 3 and 4?
— Gary Naylor (@garynaylor999) July 25, 2015
I see your Wales and raise you Turkey, Gary: my (very brief) research suggests that by being in Pot 4 this time, they’ve been in five different pots since 1994. Any advance on five?
Samuel Eto’o and former USSR goalkeeper Rinat Dasaev, who appears to be sporting an outrageous syrup, are on stage to draw the African qualifiers. The lowest ranked nations are paired up, before being allocated a heavyweight to face in the second round. After that, the twenty winners will be split into groups of four. I’ll pick out any plum ties, but you can see all the ties here, and listen to this while you do so:
Next up, we’re assaulted by a garishly-clad troupe who combine cossack dancing and freestyle skills to a balalaika-led instrumental version of Pink’s ‘Get the Party Started’. Next, the draw to decide which confederations will play each other in the intercontinental play-offs. An interesting opening double salvo.
After some hellish flirting between Jérôme Valcke and host Natalia Vodianova (“How many times should I kiss you?”) it’s CONCACAF v Asia and Oceania v South America.
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Putin and Blatter have hit the stage to kick things off. “Our country has a long history of football” straight-bats Putin, while Blatter says “we are looking forward to an exciting evening and an exciting World Cup for the game, for the world, for Russia”. He then tells Putin “you make us happy and comfortable”.
“The fine image of Mr. Putin confirms a view I have long held that he died many years ago and his body has been remotely contolled ever since. As for Blatter, well nobody controls him” says Ian Copestake.
It does look a little like Sepp is on a day trip to Madame Tussaud’s, and will shortly be posting similar snaps with Gandhi and Dame Edna Everage.
Rehearsal draw
As is tradition, a full rehearsal draw has taken place for the European groups. It couldn’t have gone much better for England, who drew Bosnia, Greece, Israel, Moldova and San Marino. Scotland and Republic of Ireland, on the other hand...
Which leads me to the question: what is the point of having a rehearsal draw?
So, what are the prospects for the home nations? England and Wales are best placed, what with being in pot one and all. Chris Coleman’s team have made a perfectly timed surge up the rankings, and the Wales manager has said he is glad to avoid “the Spains, the Germanys, the Italys”, before realising they haven’t actually avoided the Italys, who are in Pot 2, along with France.
Things are a little trickier for Scotland and Northern Ireland, both in Pot 3. With only one automatic spot per group, Gordon Strachan and Michael O’Neill will be happy with anything less than a mountain to climb. It looks even tougher for the Republic of Ireland, mired in Pot 4 and hoping the balls will roll kindly for them today.
This is nice, from Kári Tulinius:
“It’s something of an understatement to say that Icelandic football fans are excited these days. Not only are the national team in with a reasonable chance of making Euro 2016, but as they’re in Pot 2 today, the draw has a good change of being kind. For a nation with roughly the population of the Dudley metropolitan area, and about as glorious a footballing history, this is heady stuff. Making the World Cup has been an inconceivable dream, but maybe, just maybe, this time it could happen. It probably won’t, but it’s nice to dream for once.”
Given that Lars Lagerback’s side are top of their Euro 2016 group, and have knocked off Holland, Czech Republic and Turkey in doing so, I’m not sure they even need a favourable seeding, but it can’t hurt.
The draw starts at 6pm local time, 4pm BST. The European draw is due to be made at 5.30pm BST, just the ninety minutes after the whole thing kicks off. You won’t catch FIFA making this sort of thing drawn-out and tedious, so there’s plenty of fun before then. There’ll be preliminary draws for the other confederations, a bit of ballet, and plenty of footballing heavyweights taking the stage to select the balls. These are they:
Africa: Rinat Dasaev and Samuel Eto’o
CONCACAF: Fabio Cannavaro and Madjer
Oceania: Alexey Smertin (who replaces Hulk) and Predrag Rajkovic
South America: Ronaldo and Diego Forlan
Europe: Alexander Kerzhakov and Oliver Bierhoff
Might I suggest that, with 90 minutes to kill, this lot could put on a pretty decent five-a-side contest in the car park, and leave the suits to sort out the draw.
How it works
The UEFA qualifiers will whittle 52 hopefuls down to a lean 13 qualifiers, who will join (let’s just assume) hosts Russia at the finals. There will be nine groups: seven with six teams and two with five. The nine group winners qualify outright, with play-offs between the eight best runners-up determining the final four places.
If you’ve been paying attention, you’ll have twigged that there are six pots of teams. These pots are divided up based on the most recent FIFA world rankings. Those rankings don’t feature poor old Gibraltar; they will sit these qualifiers out, as they are not members of FIFA.
One more thing: England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands will definitely feature in six-team groups, ‘due to the centralisation of media rights’.
The pots:
Pot 1: Germany (holders), Belgium, Holland, Portugal, Romania, England, Wales, Spain, Croatia
Pot 2: Slovakia, Austria, Italy, Switzerland, Czech Republic, France, Iceland, Denmark, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Pot 3: Ukraine, Scotland, Poland, Hungary, Sweden, Albania, Northern Ireland, Serbia, Greece
Pot 4: Turkey, Slovenia, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Norway, Bulgaria, Faroe Islands, Montenegro, Estonia
Pot 5: Cyprus, Latvia, Armenia, Finland, Belarus, FYR Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Lithuania, Moldova
Pot 6: Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Georgia, Malta, San Marino, Andorra
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Preamble
Fyodor Dostoyevsky’s seminal novel Crime and Punishment is set amid an unseasonal heatwave in St. Petersburg, Russia. The protagonist, Rodion Raskolnikov, slowly loses his grip on reality as the law closes in, against the backdrop of a morally bankrupt city, where artificial opulence sits uncomfortably alongside dreadful poverty. Coincidentally, St. Petersburg is also the venue for today’s FIFA World Cup 2018 qualifying draw.
And what a draw – this is the start of the road to (probably) Russia for teams from Europe and Africa, while the CONCACAF region (where qualifiers have already started), Oceania (where the first rounds are pre-determined) and South America (where everyone plays in one big group anyway) also feature. That just leaves Asia, who have already made their draw and are getting on with the qualifiers. Get it? Got it? Good.
Given the preliminary nature of the other draws being made, we’ll be focusing on Europe, where aside from (probable) hosts Russia, the big guns and little guys are, for better or worse, thrown in together from the start. The road to (in all likelihood) Russia starts here!
