Now, at last, for the serious stuff, when the delicious intensity of knockout cricket comes to the fore. It may be that some of the batsmen will not be quite so gung-ho, while funky captains will think a little longer before stationing that third or fourth slip. It’s sudden death and it does not matter much how invincible the sides have seemed during the pool games. One slip and the dream is shattered.
The hardest quarter-final to call is the first one on Wednesday in Sydney, where Sri Lanka play South Africa. Run through the lineups and it may be that South Africa look stronger man for man, especially when examining the second half of the scorecard where the bowlers reside. Yet there remains that nagging statistic for South Africa: they have never won a knockout match in the World Cup, dating back to their first appearance in 1992, although they were a tad unlucky with the rain and the rules in their Sydney semi-final against England 23 years ago.
Marvan Atapattu, the former opening batsman who succeeded Paul Farbrace as the coach of Sri Lanka, is too polite to mention the C word (“choking”, that is). But it may not have been entirely accidental he should highlight the steeliness of his team. Atapattu is confident his players will rise to the occasion in a manner that has often eluded South Africa in the later stages of these tournaments.
“I’ve been with these players for four years now and we’ve come to so many big tournament matches where we have to win,” he said. “I’ve seen people raise their game and I’ve seen people raise the whole team. I see no difference this time so I have confidence in these guys doing it again. When it comes to pulling together and working towards a common goal we’re among the best. They know how to cope with the pressure.”
They should do since so many of them have been around for so long. Kumar Sangakkara, Mahela Jayawardene, Tillakaratne Dilshan, Angelo Mathews and Lasith Malinga have 1,501 ODI appearances between them. They can all smile easily but this disguises a toughness that matches that of any cricketers in the world.
Given the predicted sunshine in Sydney, Sri Lanka will want to bat first (as will South Africa) and to play to their strength in the first half of the game. The mighty Sangakkara will be in pursuit of his fifth consecutive century in ODI cricket and, like Jayawardene, he will be doing all he can to ensure this is not his last appearance for his country in this form of the game.
Sri Lanka need a big total to defend because their bowling is threadbare and hampered by injuries. Malinga has improved throughout the tournament and remains the trump card, but otherwise they have largely had to make do, seldom playing the same combination in this tournament.
Rangana Herath, the wily old left-arm spinner, may be fit enough to return, but it will still require some wit and good fortune for the captain, Mathews, to navigate his side through 50 overs in the field without incurring some damage.
By contrast, AB de Villiers has four top-class performers at his disposal – Dale Steyn, Morne Morkel, Vernon Philander and Imran Tahir, though he usually tries to fiddle with the options for his fifth bowler’s allocation.
This process now includes De Villiers himself propelling a few overs (no doubt if the team bus has a puncture he is the man who changes the tyre). He makes do because he does not entirely trust his middle order and he is therefore inclined to play the extra batsman. That middle order is explosive but, as the Pakistan pacemen demonstrated in Auckland, it can be unreliable. As ever, De Villiers and Hashim Amla will be the wickets most coveted by Sri Lanka.
De Villiers is capable of anything while Amla at the top of the order is the man to provide the glue. “My game plan is to bat for as long as possible and set the game up for the guys to have fun at the end,” Amla said. “We have some very good players at the death who can blow teams away. Ideally either myself, Quinton de Kock, Faf du Plessis or even AB de Villiers at times need to try to extend the innings to allow the bats at the bottom to explode.”
Those “bats” down the order are more likely to explode when they have the freedom of setting a target rather than chasing one, which explains why the outcome of the toss may be more important than usual.
Quarter-finals
1 South Africa v Sri Lanka
Sydney, Tomorrow 3.30am GMT start
2 Bangladesh v India
Melbourne, Thursday 3.30am GMT
3 Australia v Pakistan
Adelaide, Friday 3.30am GMT start
4 New Zealand v West Indies
Wellington, Saturday 1.00am GMT start
Semi-finals
1st Semi-final Winner 1 v Winner 4
Auckland, Tuesday 24 March 1.00am GMT start
2nd Semi-final Winner 2 v Winner 3
Sydney, Thursday 26 March 3.30am GMT start
World Cup final
Melbourne, Sunday 29 March 4.30am BST start