The Bank of England reckons the economy will bounce back in the shape of a V — rapidly returning to where it was before Covid struck.
Others believe it will be more of a “U” recovery.
More still think it will be the shape of a bathtub, with a long recession followed by a rapid rebound some time next year.
I prefer the sawtooth-shaped recovery: a prolonged series of jagged series of ups and downs as economies nervously reverse their lockdowns.
For businesses, it is as uncertain a time as you can imagine, with the threat of a resurgence of the virus likely to keep customers jittery for a long time yet.
Planning in such a world is nigh on impossible.
When to reopen? How many staff to bring off furlough? How much stock to order?
With so many unknowns, such questions are impossible to answer.
Risk lies in every move you make.
What you might be able to do, though, is reduce that risk by collaborating with other organisations and perhaps even rivals.
It’s a theme we’ve seen a lot with multinationals during the Covid crisis.
Major companies such as Burberry have worked with health authorities to provide PPE; tech giants have helped governments to plot the course of the virus; pharmaceutical firms have collaborated with each other to research cures.
As a result, big companies are increasingly looking at collaborating permanently on issues such as supply chains and research and development.
Try thinking in the same way about your business.
Are any of your competitors in a similar jam?
Could you consider sharing some of the load — combining orders to make savings, perhaps?
Might you even be able to make joint bids for work — offering a more comprehensive service than either of you could alone?
Or, do you have clients with whom you could collaborate more closely to create exclusive new products and give you guaranteed sales volumes in return?
Governments are not working together well during this crisis, but the people running businesses can.
A more sharing, efficient and innovative world may emerge.
