Whether you like it or not, the incumbent premier and military regime leader Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha will most likely be elected the prime minister in parliament on Wednesday albeit with or without the full support of the Democrat Party because he has in his pocket 250 junta-appointed senators who are expected to vote for him. All he needs is a minimum of 376 votes from both the elected MPs and the senators.
The Democrats, meanwhile, are waiting for a positive response from the pro-Prayuth Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) regarding its terms for joining the coalition government, chief among them being constitutional amendments. They hope to hear by the time their executive committee and MPs meet tomorrow to decide whether to join the coalition led by the PPRP.
The Democrats have not mentioned the cabinet seats in their terms because they maintain the seats were already offered to them when the party was formally invited to join the coalition alliance. But when they learned a powerful faction in the PPRP, the so-called Sam Mitr group, had a change of heart and would keep the agriculture portfolio for itself, they reacted by abruptly calling off a planned meeting of the executive committee and MPs to decide whether to join the coalition.
So, a timely, positive response from the PPRP is crucial for the Democrats' decision-making tomorrow. The Democrats expect the agriculture portfolio will enable them to realise their policy to address the problems of grassroots people, farmers in particular. They are fully aware the coalition government will not last long, months instead of years, so they hope to achieve something such as guaranteeing the prices of farm produce to win the hearts of the grassroots people that they badly need for the next election.
An early election will bode ill for the Democrats after their humiliating defeat at the last poll both in Bangkok and in the southern region, both traditional strongholds. They need to change from the colour-coded politics of the past and reach out to the young generation with some new ideas to survive and prosper again. And that may take time -- not the next election though.
Publicly, the Democrats have highlighted their demand for constitutional amendments. But privately, they are fully aware this task is easier said than done and may not succeed before the collapse of the Prayut government. The demand may be just a pretext to cover their real demand for Grade-A cabinet seats with which they can woo grassroots voters within a short period of time.
Without the Democrats, the government will be in a worse situation and the idea of having to rely on the "cobras" -- rogue MPs from the opposition camp who defy their parties' orders - for their survival will not work in the long run. The first real test of the government's stability will be when the budget bill is due in the House in the next couple of months.
Even with the Democrat Party's support which will give the coalition a slim majority, the government will still be worried about the factionalism in the PPRP. Who knows when the Sam Mitr group will rebel if they feel they are not being properly treated. It is wishful thinking to believe these veteran politicians have already changed and have a heart for the people as their top priority.
Meanwhile, in the opposite camp, the Future Forward Party (FFP), in particular, has time on its side even though its leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, may be finally disqualified by the Constitutional Court over a media shareholding case filed by the Election Commission. But he can still play politics outside parliament and is, undoubtedly, a crowd-puller among youth with his unconventional style.
The FFP's "change" message which is yet to be realised has won over many young voters -- many of them don't have a clue about the excesses and exploits of fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra with whom the party is often linked.
With the export engine sputtering as a result of the escalating US-China trade war, declining tourist arrivals and general economic slowdown, the first year in office of a rejuvenated Prime Minister Prayut will be a tough ride, with no honeymoon period.
Veera Prateepchaikul is former editor, Bangkok Post.
