The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Tuesday warned that El Niño conditions are rapidly developing in the Pacific Ocean, raising the likelihood of disruptions to global weather patterns and increasing the risk of extreme climate events in the coming months.
According to Vishwa Mohan's TOI report, in its latest update, the UN weather agency said there is an 80% probability of El Niño developing during the June-August period and a more than 90% chance that it will persist through November. The forecast has heightened concerns in India, where El Niño is typically associated with weaker monsoon rainfall and above-normal temperatures.
Also read: 80% chance of El Nino developing between June-August: United Nations
The warning comes days after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) projected below-normal monsoon rainfall for the country and indicated a higher probability of deficient rainfall during the June-September season. The weather office has also forecast above-normal temperatures in several regions during June.
While uncertainty remains over the timing and intensity of the phenomenon, most climate models suggest that the developing El Niño could reach at least moderate strength and potentially become strong, according to the WMO.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said. She noted that the previous El Niño episode in 2023-24 was among the five strongest on record and contributed to the record global temperatures observed in 2024.
Amid concerns over its impact on agriculture, the Union agriculture ministry reviewed preparedness measures for the upcoming kharif season. Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan urged states to remain vigilant and coordinate closely with the Centre to minimise disruptions to sowing operations.
Officials discussed measures such as promoting drought-tolerant crop varieties, encouraging less water-intensive crops including millets, strengthening weather-based advisories, improving water management and implementing location-specific adaptation plans.
Also read: Poweful El Nino may strike; Climate change will make its effects worse
Chouhan directed states to activate district-level contingency plans, taking into account local rainfall patterns, water availability, seed stocks and crop conditions to ensure timely support for farmers. Officials noted that reservoir storage levels across the country currently remain comfortable, at around 127% of the normal level for this period.
Meanwhile, the IMD said the southwest monsoon is expected to make its onset over Kerala around June 4, slightly later than the normal date of June 1.
With inputs from TOI
