Tom DeLay talks to the press after stepping down as house majority leader over allegations of illegal fundraising. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
Narrative in politics can be a dangerous thing. In the weeks after the 2004 US elections, the story for the next few years in Washington seemed clear enough. The Republicans in greater control of both houses of Congress, George Bush elected to a second term in the White House, and debate about how the second half of the 43rd president's time in office would differ from the first.
That does not entirely relate to the situation less than 12 months on. The January 24 edition of Newsweek, from the week of Mr Bush's inauguration, led its political coverage with a piece titled Window of Opportunity on the president's "big dreams" for his second term. Last week its front page read "Bush's Math: No Big Easy", asking how much money would be left over when the cost of Iraq was added to the cost of Katrina and the dollars going on tax cuts taken away. It was less a dream than a nightmare.
That does not mean all is going wrong for the Republicans (aka the Grand Old Party, or GOP) – today's vote from the US senate to confirm John Roberts as US chief justice is a victory for Mr Bush – but the party's problems are mounting. Its latest bother is the indictment of Tom DeLay, Republican leader in the House of Representatives, on allegations of illegal fund-raising. Whether the charges are proved true or not - Mr DeLay denies them - the indictment has removed him from the leadership.
That is quite a blow to the party. An analysis piece in the Washington Post - helpfully headlined Troubled year gets worse for GOP - points out that while Mr Bush has been the Republican's chief campaigner since 1998 - the year that marked the fall of Newt Gingrich - the other half of the double act was Mr DeLay, who "bent the system to his will and priorities" in congress. One commentator in the piece, Professor James Thurber, compares him to Tito in Yugoslavia. "He ruled with fear and also resources to reward people," he tells the paper, building towards a neat metaphor. "Without DeLay, the house will be balkanised."
On a similar theme, the New York Times' DeLay indictment adds to a sea of troubles lists the other problems facing the GOP: the investigation of Bill Frist, Republican leader in the senate, over share dealings; the criminal investigation into the leaking of a CIA operative's name to the press; and Mr Bush's poor approval ratings. One of the main reasons for their fall are the accusations of incompetence and cronyism surrounding the Katrina relief effort. Then there is Iraq. None of this is too good for the ruling party.
What is bad for the Republicans should be good for the Democrats but, as the New York Times reminds readers, they are still experiencing problems unifying around a clear message. The Republicans ousted the Democrats from control of congress in the mid-1990s, arguing they were a tired-out party. It is rarely enough for a party to rely on the failings of their opponents but, as Tony Blair has discovered in eight years facing a weak Tory opposition, it can certainly help.
What may ultimately damage the Republicans is a retreat among old-style fiscal conservatives as Mr Bush pursues a tax cutting but high spending presidency, especially on Iraq and Katrina. The New Statesman – never that keen on the president – reports on Republican thinktanks and academics who are struggling to adjust to his way of thinking. One member of the board of a Washington non-profit institution, spluttering with rage at spending on a diversity programme, said: "It's like Iraq, It's like the hurricane … it's socialism."
The president's true orientation has even been the subject of humour this week, though admittedly the kind of humour you get on ABC's daily politics email The Note, so not everyone got it. Following Mr Bush's plea for Americans to conserve fuel by driving a little less – a statement that utterly confounded most European stereotypes of the president as a man who loves no liquid greater than oil, and maybe even baths in it – the email printed what it said was a forthcoming speech from Mr Bush. Except it wasn't. Almost word for word it was Jimmy Carter's "malaise" speech, which, as Wonkette points out, "played no small role in the effective marketing of Ronald Reagan as Mr Morning in America".
