For nearly 40 years a Duncan Hunter has served in Congress. After his election in 2008 when he succeeded his father, Rep. Duncan D. Hunter was expected to continue that dynasty for as long as he wanted to.
Now representing California's 50th Congressional District, where registered Republicans consistently outnumbered registered Democrats by about 45,000, Hunter has defeated nearly every challenger by about 30 points.
Until last year, when he won by only 3.4 points while fighting a federal indictment that charged him and his wife with stealing $250,000 in campaign funds. They have pleaded not guilty to those charges.
As Hunter serves his sixth term and prepares for his trial in September, the 2020 election season has launched with Republicans in limbo and Democrats rallying early behind one candidate, hoping to flip San Diego County's last Republican-controlled congressional seat.
Republican Party officials say the formula for preserving Hunter's seat is straightforward, at least in theory. They'll wait and see what happens with Hunter but they'll have a backup plan in place.
"If (the legal case) is resolved in his favor and he is found not guilty, I anticipate he'll run for re-election," said Tony Krvaric, chairman of the Republican Party of San Diego County. "If not, it kind of resolves itself. Everybody who is running is running in case Duncan doesn't run."
The actions so far of the three Republican candidates who have filed to run _ Temecula Mayor Matt Rahn, El Cajon Mayor Bill Wells and retired Navy SEAL Larry Wilske _ reflect a similar sentiment. They don't criticize Hunter, but they express a need to have a realistic outlook on his situation.
"Right now, I think that is the plan," Rahn said of his candidacy. "We don't want to convict someone in the court of public opinion, but we recognize that with what has been said and included in the indictment ... there is serious doubt about his ability to serve in the future."
Similarly, when Wilske began his campaign, he shied away from criticizing Hunter, focusing on the need to not vacate a Republican seat.
Political observers say that approach is probably the most sensible, at least for the candidates.
"You don't want to alienate people who are pro-Hunter," said Jack Pitney, professor of political science at Claremont McKenna College. "He still has a lot of support in the district. And there is a chance he could be acquitted or have a hung jury, which would be awkward. ... You don't want to bet your political career on it."
For the party, waiting for Hunter may be a necessity as well, said Casey Dominguez, professor of political science at the University of San Diego.
"It would be in the Republican Party's interest to have a backup candidate or to, frankly, put the seat out of reach of Democrats and have a candidate that is not under federal indictment," Dominguez said. "National Republicans can't force a local Republican to run. And there are people in the district who have been voting for a Duncan Hunter for decades. You can't make those voters not support that family."
Michael Harrison, a spokesman for Hunter, said anyone who is qualified to run for office is free to do so, Republican or Democrat; it doesn't change how Hunter approaches the campaign.
"Congressman Hunter has the same approach for every campaign regardless of his opponent, regardless of the environment, regardless of the polls," Harrison said in an email. "He runs every race as if it's his first race, with full effort and full intention to win."
On the opposite side of the aisle, Democrats' approach to 2020 is more direct: Regardless of what happens to Hunter, they have their candidate and they are backing him early.
Since losing to Hunter last year and announcing his intention to challenge him again, Ammar Campa-Najjar has seen Democrats line up behind his candidacy.
Campa-Najjar said Sunday that he wants to start out strong and unify people behind him. He pointed out that 48.3 percent of the voters chose him last time.
"Regardless (of) what happens to Hunter in court, I'm ready to serve our district that has been ignored by the powerful for too long," he said.
The only other Democrat who had filed to run, Alex Balkin, dropped out last month and endorsed Campa-Najjar.
Campa-Najjar also has gathered a list of early endorsements, including members of San Diego's congressional delegation: Reps. Susan Davis, Scott Peters, Juan Vargas and Mike Levin.
Most important, he's reeling in the campaign donations.
Campa-Najjar said Sunday that his campaign raised more than $350,000 from individual donors in its first fundraising quarter. In the first primary fundraising quarter of his 2018 campaign, Campa-Najjar had raised only $8,000.
Will Rodriguez-Kennedy, chair of the San Diego County Democratic Party, said focusing on one candidate so early "was not by design, but he is a compelling candidate."
The Democratic Party can't plan for whether Hunter will be on the ballot or not, Rodriguez-Kennedy said; it needs to focus on other factors that will affect the election.
"The reality is we have a candidate, and it is best for us to promote the positives of our candidate," Rodriguez-Kennedy said. "The name of the game is voter registration, outreach and promoting our candidate in that race and sharing how people in that district can be better represented by a Democratic candidate."
This time around it also appears the race will get more attention from national Democrats. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has put Hunter on its "2020 Retirement Watch List," a list of congressional members the group will focus on defeating.
Adding another wrinkle to the race is timing, specifically Hunter's trial date.
Hunter is scheduled to go on trial Sept. 10, and though the final filing deadline for candidates is in December, it takes time to raise the amount of money most candidates need to mount a legitimate campaign, experts said.
For example in each of Hunter's past three elections the congressman raised about $1.2 million while spending close to a $1 million, excluding legal fees.
In the last election, Campa-Najjar raised and spent more than $4 million.
