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ABC News
ABC News
National
Brett Worthington

Wine, wool tipped by Agribusiness Outlook to lead growth in 2018

Rabobank expects continued growth of Australia's wine industry in 2018.

Australian wine and wool are tipped to be the standout commodities in a year of forecasted growth across the agricultural sector.

Global agri-banker Rabobank's Agribusiness Outlook 2018 report states that improved global markets and increasing Asian incomes will drive the growth.

"A key standout for us is the wine industry which we expect to have its best year for many years in 2018," said the report's author, Tim Hunt.

Projected growth in the wine industry comes after the value of wine exports jumped 15 per cent to be worth $2.56 billion last year.

Growth in the Chinese market increased 63 per cent to be Australia's top export market worth $848 million last year.

Strong sales to China also drove wool prices to record prices in recent months.

"Wool and lamb we like a lot at the top end of the spectrum," Mr Hunt said.

"It is a year in which we expect the global sugar market to return to surplus after several seasons in deficit and that will inevitably place some downward pressure on international markets."

Mr Hunt said the growth in Asian markets was reflective of increased incomes within the region.

He said higher earnings encouraged consumers to "trade up" their diets and seek-out more expensive, imported crops from Australia.

"As people get richer in some countries they eat more. But in many of our key markets, including China, the intake of food is stable," Mr Hunt said.

"It's the types of food that change and the quality of foods.

"Australia is still regarded as a high-quality producer of animal protein and dairy so we're benefitting from consumers trading-up to higher quality types of animal protein or dairy."

Rabobank expects improved commodity prices will also drive growth in the value of farm land.

Geopolitics and Chinese debt concerns

Mr Hunt cited Chinese debt and the US Government withdrawing from trade agreements as two issues that could restrict growth in the farm sector.

"If those risks are triggered, they'll be significant," he said.

Mr Hunt said he expected the Chinese Government would address debt levels in the next five years.

He said that could push up interest rates, slow growth and devalue the local currency within China.

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