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Belfast Live
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Brendan Hughes

Windsor Framework: What next for DUP as party opposes Stormont Brake legislation - analysis

It should come as no great surprise that the DUP plans to oppose a parliamentary vote as part of the Windsor Framework.

The Stormont Brake mechanism which MPs will debate has remained divisive not just for the DUP but among several parties, although for different reasons.

While some fear it creates another undemocratic veto that could further destabilise power-sharing, unionists question whether it really gives Stormont a meaningful say over new EU law applying in Northern Ireland.

Read more: DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson sets up panel to consult on Windsor Framework deal

Scepticism over Downing Street promises, coupled with Wednesday being billed as an indicative vote on the entire Brexit deal, meant the DUP could not support the legislation.

It is a setback for the Prime Minister, who has argued the Stormont Brake is a key concession from the European Union that addresses unionist concerns of a "democratic deficit".

But the vote will still comfortably pass, especially with Labour pledging support. Rishi Sunak may face opposition from some Tory Eurosceptics, but the size of any rebellion is expected to be small.

And the government is pressing ahead with the Windsor Framework regardless, as Foreign Secretary James Cleverly is due to meet the EU's Maros Sefcovic in London on Friday to formally adopt the deal.

DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson made clear party officers came to a "unanimous" decision. It follows speculation of differences in opinion in the DUP's Westminster team.

If more moderate voices were minded to abstain, DUP MP Ian Paisley declaring early his opposition in the News Letter may have shifted direction to a unified stance to stop any disagreements going public.

Sir Jeffrey's statement was not all doom and gloom, acknowledging the Stormont Brake represents "real progress".

He restated the party's concerns on which they want more "clarification, change and re-working", but he did not rule out reviving Stormont power-sharing.

The DUP is clearly trying to navigate a path that avoids triggering a split over the Windsor Framework, both within the party and among unionist voters.

Sir Jeffrey setting up a panel to gauge opinion had pushed back making a decision until at least the end of the month, but party officers will also have to be consulted - and perhaps even the wider party executive.

With the DUP leader looking over his shoulder at TUV’s Jim Allister, a final decision on whether to return to Stormont seems unlikely to happen this side of council elections in May.

Sir Jeffrey will be hoping for a further move from the UK government which can be sold to his party and supporters as extracting another concession.

The government's plans to amend the Northern Ireland Act 1998 to reassure unionists of the region's constitutional position in the United Kingdom could provide the answer.

But for now, the DUP's stalling on making a "collective" decision looks set to continue.

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