Two years into the Covid-19 pandemic and billions of doses of vaccines later, the world, it seemed, could finally let out a sigh of collective relief.
Infections seem to be, for the most part, on the decline, and deaths from the disease are going down. Slowly but surely, international borders are starting to reopen, allowing much-awaited reunions between family and friends. New businesses are starting to emerge from the ashes of those burned by the pandemic, breathing new life into the high streets of Bangkok and other cities -- many of which had started to assume a new look featuring boarded-up windows and "For Lease" signs.
Upon closer examination, however, one can see that this sigh of relief is incongruous with the sentiment echoed by top public health experts, many of whom remain reluctant to declare the pandemic over.
Most recently, Antonio Guterres, secretary-general of the United Nations, stressed that the "pandemic is not over". In his remarks on Wednesday, he criticised the two-track path to recovery that the world is on, saying it is a recipe that will ensure future outbreaks.
Indeed, if one were to look at recent developments, "normal" life, as the world knew it, seems to be on the verge of making a comeback. Austria recently scrapped its vaccine mandate, while travellers into the United Kingdom are no longer subject to strict test and quarantine requirements. In Denmark, masks are back to being optional. These are just some of the examples that proponents of a more relaxed attitude towards Covid-19 have cited to support the argument that curbs won't stop an outbreak.
And in many ways, they were right. Take into account Hong Kong, which the Chinese government had essentially sealed when coronavirus cases began to spread across the globe -- a fortress which, like Troy of lore, took its residents up to 21 days to enter is now crumbling from the inside, its defences breached by a virus that somehow slipped into the impenetrable city. Hospital atriums are overflowing, and authorities are scrambling to maintain their so-called Covid-zero strategy and save its public health system from collapsing.
Considering the highly divergent scenarios which are still playing out across the globe, it is no surprise that leading international figures and health experts are not rushing into declaring the pandemic's end. Indeed, as there are still many factors at play which even top experts on the matter have yet to understand, a country like Thailand -- which recent history has shown is worryingly vulnerable to external shocks -- would be better served by taking a more cautious stance.
Instead of erring on the side of caution, however, the government decided to play around with the way authorities -- in this case, the Public Health Ministry and the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration -- report daily Covid-19 tallies.
For starters, Public Health Minister (and Deputy Prime Minister) Anutin Charnvirakul said the ministry will revise the way it reports Covid fatalities, "after finding that up to 30% of people who died from the infection did so due to other causes". Under the new counting system, only patients who died directly from damaged lungs will be counted in the daily Covid death toll.
It is important to note that this decision came in the wake of the government's policy to announce Covid as endemic by July 1. To fit the endemic status, Covid patients must not exceed 0.1 %. Currently, Thailand's rate is 0.18.
To some, these changes may seem like nothing more than harmless window-dressing. But downplaying infection figures is a dangerous game -- especially considering the businesses which stand to lose the most if cases do spiral out of control.
In this case, those in tourism, hospitality and F&B rely heavily on public reputation. A misstep here will not only mean short-term losses -- the reputation and integrity of the Ministry of Public Health stand to lose.
Furthermore, Mr Anutin's announcement was not only inconsistent, but also ill-timed -- it comes just two weeks after the government raised the nation's virus alert to Level 4, following a surge at the start of the year.
While it is true that in less-understood outbreaks -- such as the Covid-19 pandemic -- there are bound to be sudden shifts in policy directives, such shifts must be properly communicated and justified. Inconsistencies breed distrust, and in a period plagued with uncertainties, distrust will only make the government's primary job, controlling the outbreak, more difficult.
One only needs to look at Hong Kong to see how the lack of trust in government could complicate virus-fighting efforts.
The city shows how even the most advanced public health system, backed by the machinations of a centralised, one-party state, is no match to chronic distrust.
