Wind and storm surge watches were posted across the Florida Gulf coast Friday as Subtropical Storm Alberto continued northward.
The western tip of Florida's Panhandle was at the center of the projected impact zone and while Alberto's strongest winds were expected to stay well offshore until then, forecasters cautioned that storm's path potentially could shift over the next few days. Either way, much of the state, including the Florida Keys and mainland South Florida, was likely to be drenched.
Along the southwest coast, surf and surge could also pile seawater atop the rain. And once it does reach land, forecasters were concerned that it could stall and trigger worse flooding.
"When it gets inland, it will be a slow mover, so this could be a horrific flooding event up there," National Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltgen said.
The storm was expected to pass near the Yucatan coast Friday night and continue to the north over the weekend, approaching somewhere along the Gulf coast Monday.
Forecasters said they expected dry air to keep the storm from strengthening into the hurricane, but warned that could change.
Broad winds that extended 140 miles from the storm's center could help push a 2- to 4-foot storm surge across parts of the Gulf coast, where a storm surge watch extended from Florida's Big Bend to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Tropical storm conditions may be felt within 48 hours along the Panhandle to eastern Louisiana, forecasters said.
Heavy rain remains the storm's biggest threat, with the Keys expected to get 4 to 8 inches. Up to 12 inches could fall in some locations. Between 4 and 6 inches could fall along the coast between Fort Lauderdale and Flamingo, according to the National Weather Service, which issued a flood watch for South Florida from 8 a.m. Saturday to 8 p.m. Sunday.
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula could get 10 to 25 inches of rain, increasing the risk of dangerous flash floods.
Forecasters raised the storm's status Friday after buoys and ship readings reported higher winds. It was designated subtropical because strong upper level winds continue to shear the top, leaving it lopsided. A subtropical system poses the same hazards as tropical storms _ heavy rain and wind _ but lacks the warm center. Stronger winds also wrap around the storm's edges, rather than the center.
As it moves north, the shear is expected to subside and allow the storm to transition into a more dangerous tropical storm over warm water.
Forecasters said the location of the storm's center far from the Florida coast could be misleading.
"Don't let that fool you because the wind flow on the east side may bring very rough surf," said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Kottlowski. "As it becomes more persistent, it will create a pileup of water, so the concern is for southwest Florida, or the west coast to Apalachicola Bay, which could get a big inundation of water because of the constant wind blowing and a lot of places are very prone to flooding."
With the storm sucking so much moisture from the Caribbean, South Florida should get ready for a soggy holiday weekend, with tornadoes possible as conditions worsen.
"As it tracks north over the Gulf over the next couple of days, our impacts are going to be pretty much the same: heavy rain with potential flooding," said Robert Molleda, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service.
