We talk about players coming into events with momentum. Well, here comes an entire sport, thundering into the year’s third major with all that propulsive energy. Three weeks ago, tennis wrapped up a sensational Roland Garros—featuring No. 1 vs. No. 2 in both finals, no real controversies, emerging stars, veterans hanging on and a generationally spellbinding last match.
Now, here comes the grampy/grandmum of them all, as the Brits might say. Wimbledon 2025 kicks off Monday morning at the All England Club, all bangers and mash. Will Carlos Alcaraz defend his title and win a third straight, something neither Serena Williams nor Novak Djokovic ever did? Will Jannik Sinner avenge his defeat from the jaws of victory at the French Open?
Stay tuned. But first, our men’s seed report:
The top 16
1. Jannik Sinner
The glass-half-empty perspective: Sinner is coming off a devastating defeat, a point from his first Roland Garros title, having been the finalist in the best match of the decade. (And lost to the indomitable Alexander Bublik heading into Wimbledon.) The half-full outlook: In just his third tournament of the year, Sinner came within a point of winning. He remains No. 1. He has won half of the past six majors held. And we know his game translates fine to grass.
2. Carlos Alcaraz
Coming off his exhilarating title in Paris, and then a fine showing at Queen’s Club, he now goes for his third consecutive Wimbledon (and fourth straight tournament) title. He’ll be the favorite. He’ll be the center of attention. And it’s all well-deserved.
3. Alexander Zverev
It doesn’t take much to rewrite a script and reset a reputation—21 sets, in fact. But there’s a hard-to-shake feeling that the window is closing fast on that elusive major for Zverev. And it’s hard to imagine that it will happen here. (This is the rare German who’s better on clay than grass.)
4. Jack Draper
By a hair—15 points—he gets the fourth seed and he’s thoroughly capable of winning the title. The game is there, more an issue of handling the moment and not letting nerves affect him physically, which—by Draper’s own admission—has been a challenge in the past. Other players will get $4.1 million or so for winning. A handsome, young, charismatic, homegrown champ? He could get $50 million.
5. Taylor Fritz
Fritz has had a rough, injury-addled year, punctuated by a first-round loss in Paris. But he’s on the grass and snapping back, winning in Stuttgart and looking closer to 100% physically. A quarterfinalist in 2024 has a bushel of points to defend, but a good bet to do so.
6. Novak Djokovic
While it was hard to ignore his poignant departure from Roland Garros and wonder how long the show continues, the truth is that he has a better shot of winning major No. 25 on grass—and a Roger Federer–tying seven Wimbledons—than he does on clay. Djokovic came within a match of winning Wimbledon in 2023 and ’24.
7. Lorenzo Musetti
He’s a stylish Italian—and his one-handed zing is a joy to watch. One wishes he were a bit more durable, but he is now at a career high ranking. And he reached the semis at Wimbledon in 2024, a result that looks like the rule, not the exception. One hopes there are no ill effects from the groin injury that caused him to retire from the French semifinals.
8. Holger Rune
His game is built for grass, and Rune has won seven of his past nine matches at the All England Club. Is it folly to take a player seriously based on one point? (Less optimistically, he’s still too prone to tapping out on days he gets frustrated, especially against lower-tier opposition.)
9. Daniil Medvedev
Talk about a player in need of a strong result. Medvedev has shown some signs of life on grass, but it’s been a rough few years for an exceedingly capable player. Wimbledon semifinal runs in 2023 and ’24 bode well, but the GPS coordinates on his brain tennis can vary greatly.
10. Ben Shelton
Shelton is the third American in the top 10. The lefty serve should, alone, make him worthy of a second week appearance. He played well here in 2024 (before encountering Sinner), and I wouldn’t read too much into his tune-up defeats.
11. Alex De Minaur
A thoroughly admirable pro’s pro who wrings it all out of his game. And he’s a fastest-man-in-the-sport candidate, which helps on grass. But De Minaur’s modest weaponry will always be a concern.
12. Frances Tiafoe
Tiafoe is coming off a strong Roland Garros run (quarterfinals), and his game translates well to grass, even on the forehand side which requires more time. One wishes (surely he wishes as well) that there was more consistency here. He takes a lot of losses week-to-week, but he comes to play at the big events.
13. Tommy Paul
You wonder about his health first and foremost, specifically the abdominal injury that hampered his (nonetheless successful) Roland Garros. And here’s a weird fact: At 28, he’s only played Wimbledon three times.
14. Andrey Rublev
Sadly, one wonders if this is a mere slump or if Rublev, 27, is a declining asset. He was a first-round loser here in 2024.
15. Jakub Menšík
Menšík sneaks into the top 16 with Arthur Fils’s withdrawal. Typically, Czech flat hitting can translate to grass. But he doesn’t have a lot of experience on the surface and had a tempestuous early round loss at Queen’s Cup.
16. Francisco Cerundolo
A first round loser in Paris, Cerundolo heads to a major where he’s won one match for his career.
Seeds 17-32
28. Alexander Bublik
Let’s go out of order to highlight one of the hottest players … who might be at his best on grass. You know who is thrilled to see him seeded? The 31 other players in the top 32 who don’t have to face him off the bat.
17. Karen Khachanov
Keep your eyes on this sneaky good grass court player.
19. Grigor Dimitrov
He is dangerous at full health, but that’s seldom the case. Credit Dimitrov for remaining this relevant at 34 years old.
24. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Wow, is that a big number next to his name. He heads to the All England Club with coach Goran, a former Wimbledon champ, in his box.
32. Matteo Berrettini
Health is always a concern with Berrettini. But the former Wimbledon finalist is so, so dangerous, especially on grass.
Dark horse corridor
Any player 6'6" and above: Reilly Opelka, Gio Mpetshi Perricard (a Week 2 player in 2024 who barely missed a seeded slot) and Gabriel Diallo, the hard-serving Canadian just won Hertogenbosch. What nightmare early opponents, especially on grass.
Zizou Bergs: He’s coming off a career high ranking (No. 49) after reaching the final in Hertogenbosch.
Alexander Bublik: If he can reach the semifinals on clay, why not on grass? Though given the EKG movements of his career, who knows?
João Fonseca: Playing his first Wimbledon. Not exactly from a grass court hotbed … but covering our bases all the same.
First round matches to watch
- Gael Monfils vs. Ugo Humbert: Franco-on-Franco
- Dan Evans vs. Jay Clarke: Brit-on-Brit
- Learner Tien vs. Nishesh Basavareddy: Young American-on-Young American
- Sinner vs. Luca Nardi: Italian-on-Italian
Upset special
- I can’t quite pull the trigger on Perricard d. Fritz, but what a lousy first rounder for both. (Fritz wins, and a possible clash with Diallo awaits.)
Doubles Winner: the All-American team of Evan King and Christian Harrison
Semifinals
Draper d. Sinner
Alcaraz d. Shelton
Final
More Wimbledon on Sports Illustrated
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Wimbledon 2025 Men’s Seed Report: Can Carlos Alcaraz Defend His Title?.
