No trainer, British or Irish, has arrived at a modern Cheltenham Festival with a team of contenders to match the one that Willie Mullins will set loose in the West Country next week. Ireland’s champion is likely to saddle at least nine favourites in the meeting’s 14 Grade One events, he is as short as 1-8 to be the Festival’s leading trainer, and whether you are generally with his runners or against, it will be fascinating to see how his challenge unfolds through the four days.
The breadth and depth of the Mullins squad does not make life any easier for punters looking for value before the action begins, however, because the precise destination of several possible favourites has yet to be confirmed. Once the meeting is up and running the markets may well react to the result of every race. If Team Mullins performs at or even above expectation, his horses could start to go off at unnaturally short prices as the bookmakers try to stem potential losses. What price Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle, for instance, if Douvan and Un De Sceaux have already taken the Supreme Novice Hurdle and the Arkle Novice Chase, the first two races on the card?
Next week’s market moves could be more frantic and sudden than ever, so one price that may be worth locking in now is the 5-4 still available against Faugheen in Tuesday’s feature event.
It might seem a thin price at the most competitive meeting of the year, but there are strong reasons to believe that Faugheen is not only the best horse in the race on this season’s form, but also the one runner among the principals with the potential to be significantly better. Both Jezki and The New One, the next two names in the betting, will be making their 16th starts over hurdles on Tuesday, while for the former champion Hurricane Fly, it will be number 30. Faugheen, though, has only seven races behind him, has yet to be beaten and looks as potent at two miles as he did at 21 furlongs in last year’s Neptune.
Elsewhere on the Tuesday card, Qewy (1.30) is definitely worth an each‑way interest in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at 14-1. John Ferguson’s runner was value for much more than the six-length winning margin in a novice hurdle at Newbury on Betfair day, and he is a serious contender for a race in which the price of Mullins’s runner Douvan seems to be based on his reputation rather than his form.
Wednesday’s Champion Chase sees a much anticipated meeting between Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy, who have won the last two renewals of the two-mile championship. Sire De Grugy has been underestimated for most of his career and despite a convincing win 12 months ago, a price of 100-30 suggests he is still underestimated. It is well worth taking, along with the 16-1 about Bouvreuil – fourth behind Qewy at Newbury last time – in the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle on the same card.
The World Hurdle is the most open of all the main Grade One events, and the rising star Saphir Du Rheu, at 5-1, may have the beating of his stablemate Zarkandar assuming that Mullins’ Annie Power, as seems likely, runs instead in the Mares’ Hurdle on Tuesday.
The most likely winner of Friday’s Gold Cup, clearly, is the impressive Boxing Day King George VI Chase winner Silviniaco Conti, but this could be a very good renewal with several up-and-coming and potentially top‑class chasers in opposition and even at 100-30, his price at present is no better than fair. Many Clouds and Road To Riches are both very credible alternatives, but Mullins’s Djakadam, currently a 9-1 chance, is the one that could well start much shorter on the day.
TIPS AT A GLANCE
Tuesday
1.30 Qewy
3.20 Faugheen
5.15 Little Jon
Wednesday
3.20 Sire De Grugy
4.40 Bouvreuil
Thursday
2.40 Ryanair Chase Foxrock
3.20 World Hurdle Saphir Du Rheu
Friday
2.05 County Hurdle Quick Jack
3.20 Gold Cup Djakadam
