It is increasingly difficult to gauge what constitutes an upset in tennis, tougher in the women’s game than the men’s, it has to be said, and nowhere is the uncertainty more obvious than in the fortunes of the Williams sisters at the Australian Open.
Both are through to the quarter-finals and on schedule to meet in the semi-final of a slam for the first time since they met at Wimbledon 15 years ago. They are not only great players but indomitable survivors – 6-2 in Serena’s favour in regards to slam finals – but they are surrounded by hungry aspirants who care little for reputations, and rightly so. Respect is earned not handed out like sweets in elite sport.
Certainly if Serena, the world No1 and the best player since Steffi Graf, had lost to the No24 seed Garbiñe Muguruza in the fourth round on the eighth day it would have caused a significant stir – even though the gifted Spaniard had beaten Williams in the French Open, one of three tournaments in 2014 in which the American had failed to get past the quarter-final before rescuing her season by winning the US Open, her 18th slam.
Serena won here 2-6, 6-3, 6-2 but could so easily have blown it early in the third set, when she survived a 13-minute service hold in the second game that featured two double faults and three aces, one of them glaringly illegal, the sort of stats that describe chaos rather than dominance.
So, where is the form line? After winning on Monday, Serena heads for a quarter-final on Wednesday against the No11 seed Dominika Cibulkova, last year’s runner-up in her first grand slam final. Small and muscular, but big in the shot and a decent mover across the baseline, the well-balanced and sturdy Slovak has already put out Kirsten Flipkens, Tsvetana Pironkova and Alizé Cornet, all players with admirers who think they can go further in the game. On Monday she eliminated Victoria Azarenka, the returning 2012 and 2013 champion, unseeded but feared after recovering from injury last year.
“To be her size,” Williams observed of Cibulkova, “she hits so hard and she plays so well. She’s such a power, compact, great player. I have to stay focused and not underestimate her. She almost beat me before.”
Venus scored the harder win, against the No6 seed Agnieszka Radwanska, whose tennis was unusually erratic. Next for the elder Williams is an unseeded compatriot Madison Keys, and she should start a slight favourite. Yet all that can be said with any certainty about a match that might have been easy to call a few years ago, before injury cut down Venus, is that the winner will be American.
“Experience is definitely a factor,” Venus said. “But I was 19 once. I beat players who were more experienced. If you can hit the ball in the court enough times and get enough points on your side, that will be who wins no matter what the other numbers are.”
Davenport, a three-time slam winner, played Venus in the 2000 and 2005 Wimbledon finals, losing both, but her presence in Keys’ corner, is having an influence. “We get along really well and we play similar games so it’s really nice to have someone who not only plays somewhat like me but has also gone through it, knows the nerves, the stresses, all of that,” the 19-year-old said of her coach, who has been getting out on court, too. “She has seniors she is getting ready for. Sorry, not seniors, legends. She’s going to yell at me later.”
