England’s success in the Six Nations and their long winning run are a blessing and a curse for Warren Gatland. As the British & Irish Lions’ head coach starts turning names for the tour to New Zealand from pencil to ink and erasing others, the champions’ players are high on confidence but have an attacking style markedly different to Gatland’s Wales.
England’s first three tries against Scotland last weekend came directly from lineouts, with speed of hand and foot rather than power undoing the defence. In 2013, when the Lions toured Australia, Wales were the Six Nations champions and their favoured lineout ploy also relied on ball delivered quickly from the top, but there was no attempt at deception as Jamie Roberts galloped hard to bowl over tacklers and get over the gainline.
There were times on Saturday when England showed a spatial awareness New Zealand are renowned for. Wales under Gatland have been at their most comfortable seeking contact and their victory over Ireland on Friday was based on the raw aggression they showed throughout, especially in defence.
It was a world away from Twickenham and Gatland, whose attack coach in New Zealand will be Wales’s Rob Howley, has to blend not just players from four countries but diverse playing styles. While there are similarities between Wales and Ireland, sides that are heavily coached and over-reliant on a game going to plan, England and Scotland are different, more reactive and less prescriptive.
As a New Zealander, Gatland knows that success in the Test series will involve more than stopping the All Blacks, significant though defence will be, and looking to, as Wales did against Ireland on Friday, sabotage the half-back supply line. Yes, they will need to be physical – with the breakdown a key battleground in any Test against the All Blacks – but the more creative and unpredictable they are, the greater the prospect of emulating the 1971 Lions, a team the All Blacks struggled to define in the four-match series.
The former England cricketer Ed Smith wrote in the latest edition of the New Statesman that he believed sports that were overwhelmingly determined by physical virtuosity alone were in a state of sustained crisis. “As interest drains away from pure physical virtuosity, other sports will benefit: the ones in which decision-making, skill, on-field intelligence and tactics are more inextricably bound up with success,” he wrote. “Everyone recognises that winning in modern professional sport relies on relentless dedication; but success is more interesting when it doesn’t rely exclusively on physical optimisation.”
One reason that England have retained the Six Nations title with one round to spare is that they do not rely exclusively on the physical side of their game, even if they exploited their clear advantage up front against Scotland. They are smarter than the rest having devised various ways of winning under Eddie Jones, but their 10, 12, 13 combination of George Ford, Owen Farrell and Jonathan Joseph, players who seek space rather than contact, is not a type for which Gatland has shown a liking.
He did have Jonathan Sexton, Jonathan Davies and Brian O’Driscoll in those positions in Australia four years ago for the first two Tests but when Roberts was passed fit for the series-deciding third, out went O’Driscoll and the Wallabies were Warrenballed. Robbie Henshaw and Ben Te’o would fit into the Wales teams under Gatland at 12 far more than Farrell who if he were qualified to wear the red jersey, would likely be at outside-half.
So while the bulk of England’s title-winning squad will make it to New Zealand, their attacking gameplan will probably remain at home. The Wales defence coach, Shaun Edwards, said this week that “the days of putting in three wide passes from set plays are over” because a defender would rush up and intercept, but Wales did exactly that against Ireland for their first try: the move started at a lineout and four passes later George North scored in the corner.
It is a question of priority. Wales have widened their outlook this season but not to the point where they are prepared to start with the playmaking Sam Davies at outside-half. Dan Biggar is preferred, not least for his defence, while Eddie Jones puts attack first in his selection of Ford – who was targeted by both Wales and Scotland, who scored tries down his channel.
Would the Lions take Ford on tour as the third outside-half, which would reduce him to the role of dirt-tracker? His dropping by England for the World Cup match against Wales in 2015 so flustered him that he lost form for a couple of months. If Farrell plays in the first Test at inside-centre with Sexton at 10, there would be no need for outside-half cover on the bench.
Another poser for Gatland is Dylan Hartley. The last two tours have seen the captain of England in those years, Steve Borthwick (2009) and Chris Robshaw (2013) left at home, but England are this time the dominant team in the Six Nations and Hartley has yet to lose a match while in charge. If he is not seen as the first-choice hooker, would it prove disruptive to have the captain of the champions playing a subordinate role?
Ian McGeechan, a coach who was steeped in the Lions, said the success of a tour hinged in no small part on the way players who were first choice for their countries and were not used to rejection coped with the disappointment of not being selected in the Test side. It has been an issue on the past three tours to New Zealand, not least 1993 when many of the dirt-trackers went awol before the end.
England will lead the way in selection but the style of play will not be Eddie Jones’s. The champions will provide the set-piece ball-winners, but how many of their backs will use it? Eddie Jones has refused to talk about the Lions this year, but how long will his silence last after the squad announcement?
• This is an extract taken from the Breakdown, the Guardian’s weekly rugby union email. To subscribe, just visit this page and follow the instructions.
