Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
Wales Online
Wales Online
National
Daniel J McLaughlin

Will the Liberal Democrats' surge in the polls last?

The Liberal Democrats are experiencing a surge after successful local and European election campaigns - but will they be able to translate it to Westminster?

The party has topped a recent general election poll, ahead of the Brexit Party, Labour and the Tories, reports Perspecs.

Some describe the Lib Dems as a phoenix, rising from their previous state of "political roadkill".

Others, however, are taking the polls "with a pinch of salt".

The Claim

Sky News' Lewis Goodall likens the Lib Dems to a political phoenix, whose resurrection came because "the moment demanded it".

He says that they are experiencing a transformation out of nowhere, with their poll rating rising and quickly, as well as "mammoth local election gains” and “equally impressive European results".

Goodall argues: "For years they've been the running joke of British politics. The Lib Dem bird barely twitching in the road: political roadkill.

"Yet all of a sudden that roadkill has shown signs of life - it is now more phoenix than anything else."

He notes that the success of the Brexit Party has frightened many Remainers, and this could explain to some extent the resurrection of the Lib Dems.

Goodall describes them as "the best yin to the Brexit Party's yang", adding: "So long as the Brexit Party exists, at least, the performance of the Lib Dems will be enhanced."

The Counterclaim

The Spectator's John Connolly questions how seriously should we take the Lib Dems topping the polls, however. He argues that it is "probably best to take these results with a pinch of salt".

He writes: "But before we begin rolling out the yellow bunting for a Lib Dem in Number 10, it’s worth remembering that the usual caveats about polls apply.

"This is only one survey, and could be either an outlier that underestimates or overestimates public support and turnout for the political parties, or simply reflects a temporary surge for the Lib Dems that will eventually subside."

Connolly says that their bump in the polls could be explained by their strong showing in the local elections and the European elections. They are also undergoing a leadership contest.

He adds: "All three of these events have given the Lib Dems far more coverage in the national media than they would usually receive, and could explain why they are the forefront of the public’s mind."

The Facts

The poll in question comes from YouGov, and it suggests that the Lib Dems would win a general election if one were held tomorrow.

According to the polling company, it is only the second time that neither Labour nor the Tories have occupied first place in their 19-year history.

It puts the Lib Dems ahead with just under a quarter (24 per cent) of support, pipping the Brexit Party to the top spot by two points. Labour and the Tories are joint third on 18 per cent, followed by the Green Party (eight per cent), UKIP (one per cent) and Change UK (one per cent).

The last time that Lib Dems were on top was after the first ever TV prime ministerial debate during the 2010 general election campaign.

There has also been a rise in membership for the Lib Dems, with 11,000 new people joining the party since the start of May.

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.