With Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel nursing hamstring injuries, Shedeur Sanders has been tabbed the Browns' starting quarterback for their first preseason game against the Panthers. Sanders will get his chance to leave an impression on Cleveland, but does the fifth-round pick have a shot at starting in the regular season this year?
Sanders is part of a five-man quarterback competition including Pickett, Gabriel, Joe Flacco and the newly-signed Tyler Huntley. While it remains unclear how the competition will shake out over the month leading up to the regular season, how likely is that Sanders actually starts meaningful games this year despite being a late-round pick?
Here's a look at the recent history of Day 3 quarterbacks to start as rookies.
How Often Do Day 3 NFL Draft Picks Start As Rookies?
Since the draft moved to its current seven-round format in 1994, a total of 211 quarterbacks have been taken in rounds 4–7 over the 30 years from '94 to 2024. Of those 211 quarterbacks, 41 saw at least one start during their rookie season, or nearly 20%.
Opportunities have been greater for Day 3 quarterbacks over the last five years. From 2020 to '24, 12 of 29 (41.4%) quarterbacks picked in rounds 4–7 have started at least one game as a rookie. Most recently, 2024 fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler started six games for the Saints last season.
Even so, not many of those late-round quarterbacks get extended looks as rookies. After all, many of them are third-string quarterbacks and typically, multiple things have to go wrong for them to break into the starting lineup in their first season. Of those 41 quarterbacks that did start at least one game as a rookie, 19 started two games or fewer in their rookie year.
Since 1994, just seven quarterbacks taken in rounds 4–7 have started the majority of their team's regular season and/or postseason games during their rookie year, or about 3.3% of the quarterbacks drafted on Day 3 in the last 30 years. Those quarterbacks are Chris Weinke, Kyle Orton, Bruce Gradkowski, Dak Prescott, Gardner Minshew, Brock Purdy and Aidan O'Connell. All seven started at least eight games as a rookie, and Weinke was the only one that didn't become the starter because of an injury to another quarterback.
What Does it Mean for Sanders?
There is plenty of precedence for quarterbacks taken in rounds 4–7 to see at least one start as a rookie. With no clear-cut starter in the Browns' quarterback room and multiple passers already dealing with injuries, Sanders is in a situation that could allow him to see the field in a regular season game.
It's not unreasonable to believe that Sanders could see a few starts this season, but it does seem much more unlikely that he would see extensive time on the field as a rookie. Outside of the fact that just seven quarterbacks have started most of their rookie season, the Browns' quarterback room is full and Sanders seems to be toward the back of the pack. Sanders has often seen fewer first-team reps than his peers and is less experienced than Flacco, Huntley and Pickett. Sanders likely will need a strong preseason showing for a chance to move up in the room.
Even if Sanders doesn't get to start as a rookie, there still could be chances for him down the line. The most famous Day 3 pick in NFL history, Tom Brady, didn't see his first start until his sophomore season. Brady is of course the exception to the rule, but a number of other late-round picks got opportunities to start a few games after their rookie seasons, including future three-time Pro Bowler Matt Hasselback. With Sanders's name and the fact that many viewed him as a Day 1 or Day 2 draft pick, it wouldn't be surprising to see him get a shot either as a rookie or in the future.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Will Shedeur Sanders Start for Browns? A History of Day 3 QB Draft Picks to Start As Rookies.
