Florida Atlantic. Cincinnati. Miami of Ohio. This is not the nonconference schedule that champions are made of.
Before we get into the nitty gritty, I will fully acknowledge all of the rightful arguments that Buckeye fans have. First of all, Ohio State plays nine conference games. So while Alabama will get “credit” in the eyes of the college football world for scheduling Duke (yes, Duke) and three cupcakes, Ohio State gets looked down on for facing two strong Group of 5 teams. The lack of logic is obvious. But that’s the way this sport works too often.
Also, I know Ohio State was originally scheduled to play TCU this year. And yes, TCU is the school that canceled the series, backing the Buckeyes into a corner on short notice. Could Ohio State have found someone better than Miami (OH) just two years out? Maybe, but it might not be fair to expect them to.
Also, Ohio State has been one of the lone programs out there that’s historically tried to schedule tough non-conference opponents — even away from home. That being said, we have to address the question. How will the CFP selection committee view Ohio State’s schedule this season?
Next … How it’s all played out so far
The selection committee and non-conference schedule
Interestingly enough, in the five years of the College Football Playoff, we have yet to see non-conference schedules really decide who got in.
Of the 20 teams to make the Playoff, there have only been two real judgment calls. The first was in 2014, when there was very little to separate Ohio State, Baylor, and TCU.
The Buckeyes got the nod that year, on the back of a slightly better overall schedule, and an incredibly impressive beatdown of Wisconsin. (There is a pervasive myth that Ohio State being a conference champion made the difference that year. However, no one from the committee–nor Jeff Long nor Bill Hancock–has ever said that TCU and Baylor weren’t viewed as conference champions, and they have made public statements that they accepted the Big 12’s declaration of co-champions.)
The second real judgment call was last year, when the fourth and final spot could have gone to any of Ohio State, Georgia, or Oklahoma. Oklahoma had a very weak non-conference schedule, but an impressive offense and the fact that Ohio State had such an awful loss (and that Georgia had two losses) seems to have put Oklahoma over the top.
Every other year, the Playoff teams were straightforward. 2015, 2016, and 2017 all had four teams with resumes obviously better than everyone else’s. (Well, Ohio State’s resume was slightly better than Alabama’s in 2017, but that ugly loss to Iowa kept the Buckeyes out.)
We have seen teams with weak non-conference schedules in CFP contention before. It didn’t seem to hurt Baylor in 2014. In fact, a miracle head-to-head win jumped Baylor over TCU, even with a much worse non-conference schedule. It never seemed to hurt Washington, even with ESPN’s absurd antics about it.
Next … What about this year?
Ohio State in 2019?
So should Buckeye fans worry that it will hurt Ohio State this year? Probably not. Go 13-0, and Ohio State is in the Playoff no matter what. Go 12-1 and win the Big Ten, and the Buckeyes are almost definitely in (assuming they lose by less than three scores). We have to wait for the season to really get into form and look at the contenders to make any clearer prediction than that.
If it comes down to two really close resumes between Ohio State and another team, maybe this will matter. Of course, the selection committee is made up of human beings who watch plenty of college football, so the Buckeyes will certainly get their chance to make the arguments about TCU or playing nine conference games if it comes to that. But it’s way too early to be concerned about any of that.
Also, Cincinnati looks like it will be a very good team this year. Over the coming weeks, I’m going to break down Ohio State’s schedule and the potential CFP impact of each game.
So stay tuned …
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